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1. The Effects of Temporal Variation on Fitness, Functional Traits, and Species Distribution Patterns

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icz113  

   Emery, Nancy C. ; La Rosa, Raffica J. ( July 2019 , Integrative and Comparative Biology)

   Temporal variation is a powerful source of selection on life history strategies and functional traits in natural populations. Theory predicts that the rate and predictability of fluctuations should favor distinct strategies, ranging from phenotypic plasticity to bet-hedging, which are likely to have important consequences for species distribution patterns and their responses to environmental change. To date, we have few empirical studies that test those predictions in natural systems, and little is known about how genetic, environmental, and developmental factors interact to define the “fluctuation niche” of species in temporally variable environments. In this study, we evaluated the effects of hydrological variability on fitness and functional trait variation in three closely related plant species in the genus Lasthenia that occupy different microhabitats within vernal pool landscapes. Using a controlled greenhouse experiment, we manipulated the mean and variability in hydrological conditions by growing plants at different depths with respect to a shared water table and manipulating the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations in the water table over time. We found that all species had similarly high relative fitness above the water table, but differed in their sensitivities to water table fluctuations. Specifically, the two species from vernal pools basins, where soil moisture is controlled by a perched water table, were negatively affected by the stochasticity treatments. In contrast, a species from the upland habitat surrounding vernal pools, where stochastic precipitation events control soil moisture variation, was insensitive to experimental fluctuations in the water table. We found strong signatures of genetic, environmental (plastic), and developmental variation in four traits that can influence plant hydrological responses. Three of these traits varied across plant development and among experimental treatments in directions that aligned with constitutive differences among species, suggesting that multiple sources of variation align to facilitate phenotypic matching with the hydrological environment in Lasthenia. We found little evidence for predicted patterns of phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging in species and traits from predictable and stochastic environments, respectively. We propose that selection for developmental shifts in the hydrological traits of Lasthenia species has reduced or modified selection for plasticity at any given stage of development. Collectively, these results suggest that variation in species’ sensitivities to hydrological stochasticity may explain why vernal pool Lasthenia species do not occur in upland habitat, and that all three species integrate genetic, environmental, and developmental information to manage the unique patterns of temporal hydrological variation in their respective microhabitats.

    

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2. Novel genomic offset metrics integrate local adaptation into habitat suitability forecasts and inform assisted migration

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1593  

   Lachmuth, Susanne ; Capblancq, Thibaut ; Prakash, Anoob ; Keller, Stephen R. ; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. ( October 2023 , Ecological Monographs)

   Genomic data are increasingly being integrated into macroecological forecasting, offering an evolutionary perspective that has been largely missing from global change biogeography. Genomic offset, which quantifies the disruption of genotype–environment associations under environmental change, allows for the incorporation of intraspecific climate‐associated genomic differentiation into forecasts of habitat suitability. Gradient Forest (GF) is a commonly used approach to estimate genomic offset; however, major hurdles in the application of GF‐derived genomic offsets are (1) an inability to interpret their absolute magnitude in an ecologically meaningful way and (2) uncertainty in how their implications compare with those of species‐level approaches like Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). Here, we assess the climate change vulnerability of red spruce (Picea rubens), a cool‐temperate tree species endemic to eastern North America, using both ENMs and GF modeling of genomic variation along climatic gradients. To gain better insights into climate change risks, we derive and apply two new threshold‐based genomic offset metrics—Donor and Recipient Importance—that quantify the transferability of propagules between donor populations and recipient localities while minimizing disruption of genotype–environment associations. We also propose and test a method for scaling genomic offsets relative to contemporary genomic variation across the landscape. In three common gardens, we found a significant negative relationship between (scaled) genomic offsets and red spruce growth and higher explanatory power for scaled offsets than climate transfer distances. However, the garden results also revealed the potential effects of spatial extrapolation and neutral genomic differentiation that can compromise the degree to which genomic offsets represent maladaptation and highlight the necessity of using common garden data to evaluate offset‐based predictions. ENMs and our novel genomic offset metrics forecasted drastic northward range shifts in suitable habitats. Combining inferences from our offset‐based metrics, we show that a northward shift mainly will be required for populations in the central and northern parts of red spruce's current range, whereas southern populations might persist in situ due to climate‐associated variation with less offset under future climate. These new genomic offset metrics thus yield refined, region‐specific prognoses for local persistence and show how management could be improved by considering assisted migration.

    

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3. Evaluating the fitness consequences of plasticity in tolerance to pesticides

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6211  

   DiGiacopo, Devin G. ; Hua, Jessica ( April 2020 , Ecology and Evolution)

   In a rapidly changing world, phenotypic plasticity may be a critical mechanism allowing populations to rapidly acclimate when faced with novel anthropogenic stressors. Theory predicts that if exposure to anthropogenic stress is heterogeneous, plasticity should be maintained as it allows organisms to avoid unnecessary expression of costly traits (i.e., phenotypic costs) when stressors are absent. Conversely, if exposure to stressors becomes constant, costs or limits of plasticity may lead to evolutionary trait canalization (i.e., genetic assimilation). While these concepts are well‐established in theory, few studies have examined whether these factors explain patterns of plasticity in natural populations facing anthropogenic stress. Using wild populations of wood frogs that vary in plasticity in tolerance to pesticides, the goal of this study was to evaluate the environmental conditions under which plasticity is expected to be advantageous or detrimental. We found that when pesticides were absent, more plastic populations exhibited lower pesticide tolerance and were more fit than less plastic populations, likely avoiding the cost of expressing high tolerance when it was not necessary. Contrary to our predictions, when pesticides were present, more plastic populations were as fit as less plastic populations, showing no signs of costs or limits of plasticity. Amidst unprecedented global change, understanding the factors shaping the evolution of plasticity will become increasingly important.

    

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4. A Synthesis of Game Theory and Quantitative Genetic Models of Social Evolution

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jhered/esab064  

   McGlothlin, Joel W. ; Akçay, Erol ; Brodie, III, Edmund D. ; Moore, Allen J. ; Van Cleve, Jeremy ; Hughes, ed., Kimberly ( February 2022 , Journal of Heredity)

   Two popular approaches for modeling social evolution, evolutionary game theory and quantitative genetics, ask complementary questions but are rarely integrated. Game theory focuses on evolutionary outcomes, with models solving for evolutionarily stable equilibria, whereas quantitative genetics provides insight into evolutionary processes, with models predicting short-term responses to selection. Here we draw parallels between evolutionary game theory and interacting phenotypes theory, which is a quantitative genetic framework for understanding social evolution. First, we show how any evolutionary game may be translated into two quantitative genetic selection gradients, nonsocial and social selection, which may be used to predict evolutionary change from a single round of the game. We show that synergistic fitness effects may alter predicted selection gradients, causing changes in magnitude and sign as the population mean evolves. Second, we show how evolutionary games involving plastic behavioral responses to partners can be modeled using indirect genetic effects, which describe how trait expression changes in response to genes in the social environment. We demonstrate that repeated social interactions in models of reciprocity generate indirect effects and conversely, that estimates of parameters from indirect genetic effect models may be used to predict the evolution of reciprocity. We argue that a pluralistic view incorporating both theoretical approaches will benefit empiricists and theorists studying social evolution. We advocate the measurement of social selection and indirect genetic effects in natural populations to test the predictions from game theory and, in turn, the use of game theory models to aid in the interpretation of quantitative genetic estimates.

    

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5. Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater cladoceran under climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1093/evlett/qrad042  

   Nadeau, Christopher P. ; Urban, Mark C. ( October 2023 , Evolution Letters)

   Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CTmax are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.

    

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