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1. Climate-mediated shifts in temperature fluctuations promote extinction risk

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01490-7  

   Duffy, Kate; Gouhier, Tarik C.; Ganguly, Auroop R. (October 2022, Nature Climate Change)

   Abstract Climate-mediated changes in thermal stress can destabilize animal populations and promote extinction risk. However, risk assessments often focus on changes in mean temperatures and thus ignore the role of temporal variability or structure. Using Earth System Model projections, we show that significant regional differences in the statistical distribution of temperature will emerge over time and give rise to shifts in the mean, variability and persistence of thermal stress. Integrating these trends into mathematical models that simulate the dynamical and cumulative effects of thermal stress on the performance of 38 globally distributed ectotherm species revealed complex regional changes in population stability over the twenty-first century, with temperate species facing higher risk. Yet despite their idiosyncratic effects on stability, projected temperatures universally increased extinction risk. Overall, these results show that the effects of climate change may be more extensive than previously predicted on the basis of the statistical relationship between biological performance and average temperature. 

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2. Rates of Future Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea: Implications for Coral Reef Ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006999  

   Lawman, A. E.; Dee, S. G.; DeLong, K. L.; Correa, A. M. S. (September 2022, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on corals in the GoM and the western Caribbean Sea. We use a top‐down modeling framework to diagnose future projected changes in thermal stress and ocean acidification and discuss its implications for coral reef ecosystems. We find that ocean temperatures increase by 2°C–3°C over the 21st century, and surpass reported regional bleaching thresholds by mid‐century. Whereas ocean acidification occurs, the rate and magnitude of temperature changes outpace and outweigh the impacts of changes in aragonite saturation state. A framework for quantifying and communicating future risks in the GoM and Caribbean using reef risk projection maps is discussed. Without substantial mitigation efforts, the combined impact of increasing ocean temperatures and acidification are likely to stress most existing corals in the GoM and the Caribbean, with widespread economic and ecological consequences. 

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3. Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33217-0  

   Di Cecco, Grace J.; Gouhier, Tarik C. (October 2018, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21^stcentury. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia. 

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4. Projected warming disrupts embryonic development and hatch timing in Antarctic fish

   https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.05.28.656708  

   Streeter, Margaret; Le_François, Nathalie R; Desvignes, Thomas; Grondin, Jacob; Postlethwait, John H; Detrich, H William; Daane, Jacob M (June 2025, bioRxiv)

   Abstract Rising ocean temperatures pose significant threats to marine ectotherms. Sensitivity to temperature change varies across life stages, with embryos often being less tolerant to thermal perturbation than adults. Antarctic notothenioid fishes evolved to occupy a narrow, cold thermal regime (−2 to +2°C) as the high-latitude Southern Ocean (SO) cooled to its present icy temperatures, and they are particularly vulnerable to small temperature changes, which makes them ideal sentinel species for assessing climate change impacts. Here, we detail how predicted warming of the SO may affect embryonic development in the Antarctic bullhead notothen,Notothenia coriiceps. Experimental embryos were incubated at +4°C, a temperature projected for the high-latitude SO within the next 100–200 years under high emission climate models, whereas control embryos were incubated at present-day ambient temperature, ∼0°C. Elevated temperature caused a high incidence of embryonic morphological abnormalities, including body axis kinking/curvature and reduced body size. Experimental embryos also developed more rapidly, such that they hatched 68 days earlier than controls (87 vs. 155 days post-fertilization). Accelerated development disrupted the evolved timing of seasonal hatching, shifting larval emergence into the polar winter when food availability is scarce. Transcriptomic analyses revealed molecular signatures of hypoxia and disrupted protein-folding in near-hatching embryos, indicative of severe cellular stress. Predictive modeling suggested that temperature-induced developmental disruptions would narrow seasonal reproductive windows, thereby threatening population viability under future climate scenarios. Together, our findings underscore the vulnerability of Antarctic fish embryos to higher water temperature and highlight the urgent need to understand the consequences of disruption of this important trophic component on ecosystem stability in the SO. Significance StatementAntarctic fishes evolved cold-adapted phenotypes suited to the stable thermal conditions of the Southern Ocean, yet are threatened by rising temperatures. The impact of rising temperatures on early life stages in Antarctic fishes is not well understood; our findings show that projected warming may induce premature hatching, developmental abnormalities, and molecular stress responses in embryos, potentially reducing recruitment and leading to population instability and trophic-level ecosystem disruptions. These results underscore the urgency of assessing climate-driven vulnerabilities across life stages of Antarctic marine organisms to refine population projections and enhance conservation strategies amid ongoing environmental change. 

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5. Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001886  

   Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok Kumar; Mann, Michael E.; Raymond, Colin (May 2021, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Globally, heat stress (HS) is nearly certain to increase rapidly over the coming decades, characterized by increased frequency, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme temperature and humidity. While these characteristics have been investigated independently, a holistic analysis integrating them is potentially more informative. Using observations, climate projections from the CMIP5 model ensemble, and historical and future population estimates, we apply the IPCC risk framework to examine present and projected future potential impact (PI) of summer heat stress for the contiguous United States (CONUS) as a function of non‐stationary HS characteristics and population exposure. We find that the PI of short‐to‐medium duration (1–7 days) HS events is likely to increase more than three‐fold across densely populated regions of the U.S. including the Northeast, Southeast Piedmont, Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest by late this century (2060–2099) under the highest emissions scenario. The contribution from climate change alone more than doubles the impact in the coastal Pacific Northwest, central California, and the Great Lakes region, implying a substantial increase in HS risk without aggressive mitigation efforts. 

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