skip to main content

This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2023

Title: A measure model for the spread of viral infections with mutations

Genetic variations in the COVID-19 virus are one of the main causes of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020 and 2021. In this article, we aim to introduce a new type of model, a system coupled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and measure differential equation (MDE), stemming from the classical SIR model for the variants distribution. Specifically, we model the evolution of susceptible \begin{document}$ S $\end{document} and removed \begin{document}$ R $\end{document} populations by ODEs and the infected \begin{document}$ I $\end{document} population by a MDE comprised of a probability vector field (PVF) and a source term. In addition, the ODEs for \begin{document}$ S $\end{document} and \begin{document}$ R $\end{document} contains terms that are related to the measure \begin{document}$ I $\end{document}. We establish analytically the well-posedness of the coupled ODE-MDE system by using generalized Wasserstein distance. We give two examples to show that the proposed ODE-MDE model coincides with the classical SIR model in case of constant or time-dependent parameters as special cases.

Award ID(s):
Publication Date:
Journal Name:
Networks and Heterogeneous Media
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Stochastic differential games have been used extensively to model agents' competitions in finance, for instance, in P2P lending platforms from the Fintech industry, the banking system for systemic risk, and insurance markets. The recently proposed machine learning algorithm, deep fictitious play, provides a novel and efficient tool for finding Markovian Nash equilibrium of large \begin{document}$ N $\end{document}-player asymmetric stochastic differential games [J. Han and R. Hu, Mathematical and Scientific Machine Learning Conference, pages 221-245, PMLR, 2020]. By incorporating the idea of fictitious play, the algorithm decouples the game into \begin{document}$ N $\end{document} sub-optimization problems, and identifies each player's optimal strategy with the deep backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) method parallelly and repeatedly. In this paper, we prove the convergence of deep fictitious play (DFP) to the true Nash equilibrium. We can also show that the strategy based on DFP forms an \begin{document}$ \epsilon $\end{document}-Nash equilibrium. We generalize the algorithm by proposing a new approach to decouple the games, and present numerical results of large population games showing the empirical convergence of the algorithm beyond the technical assumptions in the theorems.

  2. The disparity in the impact of COVID-19 on minority populations in the United States has been well established in the available data on deaths, case counts, and adverse outcomes. However, critical metrics used by public health officials and epidemiologists, such as a time dependent viral reproductive number (\begin{document}$ R_t $\end{document}), can be hard to calculate from this data especially for individual populations. Furthermore, disparities in the availability of testing, record keeping infrastructure, or government funding in disadvantaged populations can produce incomplete data sets. In this work, we apply ensemble data assimilation techniques which optimally combine model and data to produce a more complete data set providing better estimates of the critical metrics used by public health officials and epidemiologists. We employ a multi-population SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered) model with a time dependent reproductive number and age stratified contact rate matrix for each population. We assimilate the daily death data for populations separated by ethnic/racial groupings using a technique called Ensemble Smoothing with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA) to estimate model parameters and produce an \begin{document}$R_t(n)$\end{document} for the \begin{document}$n^{th}$\end{document} population. We do this with three distinct approaches, (1) using the same contact matrices and prior more »id="M30000">\begin{document}$R_t(n)$\end{document} for each population, (2) assigning contact matrices with increased contact rates for working age and older adults to populations experiencing disparity and (3) as in (2) but with a time-continuous update to \begin{document}$R_t(n)$\end{document}. We make a study of 9 U.S. states and the District of Columbia providing a complete time series of the pandemic in each and, in some cases, identifying disparities not otherwise evident in the aggregate statistics.

    « less
  3. Many dynamical systems described by nonlinear ODEs are unstable. Their associated solutions do not converge towards an equilibrium point, but rather converge towards some invariant subset of the state space called an attractor set. For a given ODE, in general, the existence, shape and structure of the attractor sets of the ODE are unknown. Fortunately, the sublevel sets of Lyapunov functions can provide bounds on the attractor sets of ODEs. In this paper we propose a new Lyapunov characterization of attractor sets that is well suited to the problem of finding the minimal attractor set. We show our Lyapunov characterization is non-conservative even when restricted to Sum-of-Squares (SOS) Lyapunov functions. Given these results, we propose a SOS programming problem based on determinant maximization that yields an SOS Lyapunov function whose \begin{document}$ 1 $\end{document}-sublevel set has minimal volume, is an attractor set itself, and provides an optimal outer approximation of the minimal attractor set of the ODE. Several numerical examples are presented including the Lorenz attractor and Van-der-Pol oscillator.

  4. In this paper we consider the inverse problem of determining structural properties of a thin anisotropic and dissipative inhomogeneity in \begin{document}$ {\mathbb R}^m $\end{document}, \begin{document}$ m = 2, 3 $\end{document} from scattering data. In the asymptotic limit as the thickness goes to zero, the thin inhomogeneity is modeled by an open \begin{document}$ m-1 $\end{document} dimensional manifold (here referred to as screen), and the field inside is replaced by jump conditions on the total field involving a second order surface differential operator. We show that all the surface coefficients (possibly matrix valued and complex) are uniquely determined from far field patterns of the scattered fields due to infinitely many incident plane waves at a fixed frequency. Then we introduce a target signature characterized by a novel eigenvalue problem such that the eigenvalues can be determined from measured scattering data, adapting the approach in [20]. Changes in the measured eigenvalues are used to identified changes in the coefficients without making use of the governing equations that model the healthy screen. In our investigation the shape of the screen is known, since it represents the object being evaluated. We present some preliminary numerical results indicating the validitymore »of our inversion approach

    « less
  5. Consider the linear transport equation in 1D under an external confining potential \begin{document}$ \Phi $\end{document}:

    For \begin{document}$ \Phi = \frac {x^2}2 + \frac { \varepsilon x^4}2 $\end{document} (with \begin{document}$ \varepsilon >0 $\end{document} small), we prove phase mixing and quantitative decay estimates for \begin{document}$ {\partial}_t \varphi : = - \Delta^{-1} \int_{ \mathbb{R}} {\partial}_t f \, \mathrm{d} v $\end{document}, with an inverse polynomial decay rate \begin{document}$ O({\langle} t{\rangle}^{-2}) $\end{document}. In the proof, we develop a commuting vector field approach, suitably adapted to this setting. We will explain why we hope this is relevant for the nonlinear stability of the zero solution for the Vlasov–Poisson system in \begin{document}$ 1 $\end{document}D under the external potential \begin{document}$ \Phi $\end{document}.