The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on inter-seasonal to inter-annual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean Dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies towards Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative-IOD events, salty anomalies around the maritime continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, there is the moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia and results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean-atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g. 2010-11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.
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The increased frequency of combined El Niño and positive IOD events since 1965s and its impacts on maritime continent hydroclimates
Abstract The Indian and Pacific Oceans surround the Maritime Continent (MC). Major modes of sea surface temperature variability in both oceans, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can strongly affect precipitation on the MC. The prevalence of fires in the MC is closely associated with precipitation amount and terrestrial water storage in September and October. Precipitation and terrestrial water storage, which is a measurement of hydrological drought conditions, are significantly modulated by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño events. We utilize long-term datasets to study the combined effects of ENSO and the IOD on MC precipitation during the past 100 years (1900–2019) and find that the reductions in MC precipitation and terrestrial water storage are more pronounced during years when El Niño and a positive phase of the IOD (pIOD) coincided. The combined negative effects are produced mainly through an enhanced reduction of upward motion over the MC. Coincident El Niño-pIOD events have occurred more frequently after 1965. However, climate models do not project a higher occurrence of coincident El Niño-pIOD events in a severely warming condition, implying that not the global warming but the natural variability might be the leading cause of this phenomenon.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10343580
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Climatic controls regulate the coupled natural and human systems in coastal Tanzania, where mangrove wetlands provide a wealth of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Previous research has explained the precipitation seasonality of eastern Africa in terms of the local monsoons. This research examines a wider range of hydroclimatic variables, including water vapour flux, evapotranspiration, runoff, and ocean salinity, and the sources of low‐frequency atmosphere–ocean variability that support mangrove productivity and associated ecosystem services. Results confirm previous work suggesting that the northeast monsoon (
kaskazi ) largely corresponds to the “short rains” of October–December and extends through February, while the southeast monsoon (kusi ) corresponds to the “long rains” of March–May and the drier June–September. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and, to a lesser extent, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are important modulators not only of precipitation (as has been shown previously) but also of water vapour flux, evapotranspiration, runoff, and salinity variability. Duringkaskazi , positive (negative) hydroclimatic anomalies occur during positive (negative) IOD, with a stronger IOD influence occurring during its positive phase, when seasonal anomalies of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff exceed +50, 25, and 100%, and nearby salinity decreases by 0.5 practical salinity units. Duringkusi , the contrast between the positive and negative IOD modes is subtler, and the pattern is dictated more by variability in “long rains” months than in the dry months. The coincidence of the positive IOD and El Niño amplify this hydroclimatic signal. Because previous work suggests the likelihood of increased tendency for positive IOD and increased moisture variability associated with El Niño events in the future, wetter conditions may accompany thekaskazi , with less change expected during thekusi . These results advance understanding of the key environmental drivers controlling mangrove productivity and wetland spatial distribution that provide ecosystem services essential to the well‐being of the human population. -
Abstract. The Indian Ocean presents two distinct climate regimes. The north Indian Ocean is dominated by the monsoons, whereas the seasonal reversal is less pronounced in the south. The prevailing wind pattern produces upwelling along different parts of the coast in both hemispheres during different times of the year. Additionally, dynamical processes and eddies either cause or enhance upwelling. This paper reviews the phenomena of upwelling along the coast of the Indian Ocean extending from the tip of South Africa to the southern tip of the west coast of Australia. Observed features, underlying mechanisms, and the impact of upwelling on the ecosystem are presented. In the Agulhas Current region, cyclonic eddies associated with Natal pulses drive slope upwelling and enhance chlorophyll concentrations along the continental margin. The Durban break-away eddy spun up by the Agulhas upwells cold nutrient-rich water. Additionally, topographically induced upwelling occurs along the inshore edges of the Agulhas Current. Wind-driven coastal upwelling occurs along the south coast of Africa and augments the dynamical upwelling in the Agulhas Current. Upwelling hotspots along the Mozambique coast are present in the northern and southern sectors of the channel and are ascribed to dynamical effects of ocean circulation in addition to wind forcing. Interaction of mesoscale eddies with the western boundary, dipole eddy pair interactions, and passage of cyclonic eddies cause upwelling. Upwelling along the southern coast of Madagascar is caused by the Ekman wind-driven mechanism and by eddy generation and is inhibited by the Southwest Madagascar Coastal Current. Seasonal upwelling along the East African coast is primarily driven by the northeast monsoon winds and enhanced by topographically induced shelf breaking and shear instability between the East African Coastal Current and the island chains. The Somali coast presents a strong case for the classical Ekman type of upwelling; such upwelling can be inhibited by the arrival of deeper thermocline signals generated in the offshore region by wind stress curl. Upwelling is nearly uniform along the coast of Arabia, caused by the alongshore component of the summer monsoon winds and modulated by the arrival of Rossby waves generated in the offshore region by cyclonic wind stress curl. Along the west coast of India, upwelling is driven by coastally trapped waves together with the alongshore component of the monsoon winds. Along the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka, the strong Ekman transport drives upwelling. Upwelling along the east coast of India is weak and occurs during summer, caused by alongshore winds. In addition, mesoscale eddies lead to upwelling, but the arrival of river water plumes inhibits upwelling along this coast. Southeasterly winds drive upwelling along the coast of Sumatra and Java during summer, with Kelvin wave propagation originating from the equatorial Indian Ocean affecting the magnitude and extent of the upwelling. Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events cause large variability in upwelling here. Along the west coast of Australia, which is characterized by the anomalous Leeuwin Current, southerly winds can cause sporadic upwelling, which is prominent along the southwest, central, and Gascoyne coasts during summer. Open-ocean upwelling in the southern tropical Indian Ocean and within the Sri Lanka Dome is driven primarily by the wind stress curl but is also impacted by Rossby wave propagations. Upwelling is a key driver enhancing biological productivity in all sectors of the coast, as indicated by enhanced sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. Additional knowledge at varying levels has been gained through in situ observations and model simulations. In the Mozambique Channel, upwelling simulates new production and circulation redistributes the production generated by upwelling and mesoscale eddies, leading to observations of higher ecosystem impacts along the edges of eddies. Similarly, along the southern Madagascar coast, biological connectivity is influenced by the transport of phytoplankton from upwelling zones. Along the coast of Kenya, both productivity rates and zooplankton biomass are higher during the upwelling season. Along the Somali coast, accumulation of upwelled nutrients in the northern part of the coast leads to spatial heterogeneity in productivity. In contrast, productivity is more uniform along the coasts of Yemen and Oman. Upwelling along the west coast of India has several biogeochemical implications, including oxygen depletion, denitrification, and high production of CH4 and dimethyl sulfide. Although weak, wind-driven upwelling leads to significant enhancement of phytoplankton in the northwest Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon. Along the Sumatra and Java coasts, upwelling affects the phytoplankton composition and assemblages. Dissimilarities in copepod assemblages occur during the upwelling periods along the west coast of Australia. Phytoplankton abundance characterizes inshore edges of the slope during upwelling season, and upwelling eddies are associated with krill abundance. The review identifies the northern coast of the Arabian Sea and eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal as the least observed sectors. Additionally, sustained long-term observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions along with high-resolution modelling efforts are recommended for a deeper understanding of upwelling, its variability, and its impact on the ecosystem.more » « less
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Nepal is positioned at the intersection of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and Subtropical Jet (SJ). Although the ISM is responsible for ~two thirds of annual precipitation, the SJ supplies precipitation in the winter and spring, with the jet migrating southwards to the subcontinent beginning in October and reaching its most southerly position in May before moving northward in June. Using the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, we investigated potential drivers of the latitudinal position of the SJ over Nepal (referred to as the Himalayan Jet) between 850-2005 CE. The Himalayan Jet Latitude [HJL] is defined as the latitude with the highest wind speed at 200 mb for every longitude containing Nepal (Thapa et al., 2022). In order to identify dominant periodicities in HJL positioning, power-spectral-density analyses were used. For the purpose of evaluating drivers of HJL position, we identified years with a northward or southward displaced HJL, defined as being two standard deviations above or below the average annual HJL position, and used anomaly composites of precipitation, winds (upper- and lower-level), sea surface temperature, moisture transport (lower-level at 850mb), and geopotential height (upper-level at 200mb). Our analyses seem to point toward a link between HJL and the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Southerly HJL years often occur during years with an El Niño and a positive IOD event. Northerly HJL years often occur when a Rossby wave train appears to be present over Nepal, indicative of a remote teleconnection. We provide an initial quantification of the physical mechanics of how these climate modes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, including remote teleconnections transmitted via atmospheric Rossby Waves, affect HJL. These climate model simulation results are also compared with a sub-decadally-resolved, precisely-dated, composite stalagmite isotope record of ISM variability from Siddha Baba cave, central Nepal.more » « less
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Nepal is positioned at the intersection of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and Subtropical Jet (SJ). Although the ISM is responsible for ~two thirds of annual precipitation, the SJ supplies precipitation in the winter and spring, with the jet migrating southwards to the subcontinent beginning in October and reaching its most southerly position in May before moving northward in June. Using the state-of-the-art Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, we investigated potential drivers of the latitudinal position of the SJ over Nepal (referred to as the Himalayan Jet) between 850-2005 CE. The Himalayan Jet Latitude [HJL] is defined as the latitude with the highest wind speed at 200 mb for every longitude containing Nepal (Thapa et al., 2022). In order to identify dominant periodicities in HJL positioning, power-spectral-density analyses were used. For the purpose of evaluating drivers of HJL position, we identified years with a northward or southward displaced HJL, defined as being two standard deviations above or below the average annual HJL position, and used anomaly composites of precipitation, winds (upper- and lower-level), sea surface temperature, moisture transport (lower-level at 850mb), and geopotential height (upper-level at 200mb). Our analyses seem to point toward a link between HJL and the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Southerly HJL years often occur during years with an El Niño and a positive IOD event. Northerly HJL years often occur when a Rossby wave train appears to be present over Nepal, indicative of a remote teleconnection. We provide an initial quantification of the physical mechanics of how these climate modes in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, including remote teleconnections transmitted via atmospheric Rossby Waves, affect HJL. These climate model simulation results are also compared with a sub-decadally-resolved, precisely-dated, composite stalagmite isotope record of ISM variability from Siddha Baba cave, central Nepal.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11663-1
