Modeling the impact of space weather events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial to protecting critical infrastructure. The Space Weather Modeling Framework is a state‐of‐the‐art framework that offers full Sun‐to‐Earth simulations by computing the background solar wind, CME propagation, and magnetospheric impact. However, reliable long‐term predictions of CME events require uncertainty quantification (UQ) and data assimilation. We take the first steps by performing global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and UQ for background solar wind simulations produced by the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) for two Carrington rotations: CR2152 (solar maximum) and CR2208 (solar minimum). We conduct GSA by computing Sobol' indices that quantify contributions from model parameter uncertainty to the variance of solar wind speed and density at 1 au, both crucial quantities for CME propagation and strength. Sobol' indices also allow us to rank and retain only the most important parameters, which aids in the construction of smaller ensembles for the reduced‐dimension parameter space. We present an efficient procedure for computing the Sobol' indices using polynomial chaos expansion surrogates and space‐filling designs. The PCEs further enable inexpensive forward UQ. Overall, we identify three important model parameters: the multiplicative factor applied to the magnetogram, Poynting flux per magnetic field strength constant used at the inner boundary, and the coefficient of the perpendicular correlation length in the turbulent cascade model in AWSoM.
To simulate solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and predict their time of arrival and geomagnetic impact, it is important to accurately model the background solar wind conditions in which CMEs propagate. We use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the the Space Weather Modeling Framework to simulate solar maximum conditions during two Carrington rotations and produce solar wind background conditions comparable to the observations. We describe the inner boundary conditions for AWSoM using the ADAPT global magnetic maps and validate the simulated results with EUV observations in the low corona and measured plasma parameters at L1 as well as at the position of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft. This work complements our prior AWSoM validation study for solar minimum conditions and shows that during periods of higher magnetic activity, AWSoM can reproduce the solar plasma conditions (using properly adjusted photospheric Poynting flux) suitable for providing proper initial conditions for launching CMEs.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10360959
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 923
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 176
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 176"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract We describe our first attempt to systematically simulate the solar wind during different phases of the last solar cycle with the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. Key to this study is the determination of the optimal values of one of the most important input parameters of the model, the Poynting flux parameter, which prescribes the energy flux passing through the chromospheric boundary of the model in the form of Alfvén wave turbulence. It is found that the optimal value of the Poynting flux parameter is correlated with the area of the open magnetic field regions with the Spearman’s correlation coefficient of 0.96 and anticorrelated with the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field with the Spearman’s correlation coefficient of −0.91. Moreover, the Poynting flux in the open field regions is approximately constant in the last solar cycle, which needs to be validated with observations and can shed light on how Alfvén wave turbulence accelerates the solar wind during different phases of the solar cycle. Our results can also be used to set the Poynting flux parameter for real-time solar wind simulations with AWSoM.
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Abstract The magnetic fields of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which originate close to the Sun in the form of a flux rope, determine their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, robust flux rope‐based models of CMEs are required to perform magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations aimed at space weather predictions. We propose a modified spheromak model and demonstrate its applicability to CME simulations. In this model, such properties of a simulated CME as the poloidal and toroidal magnetic fluxes, and the helicity sign can be controlled with a set of input parameters. We propose a robust technique for introducing CMEs with an appropriate speed into a background, MHD solution describing the solar wind in the inner heliosphere. Through a parametric study, we find that the speed of a CME is much more dependent on its poloidal flux than on the toroidal flux. We also show that the CME speed increases with its total energy, giving us control over its initial speed. We further demonstrate the applicability of this model to simulations of CME‐CME collisions. Finally, we use this model to simulate the 12 July 2012 CME and compare the plasma properties at 1 AU with observations. The predicted CME properties agree reasonably with observational data.
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Abstract In van der Holst et al. (2019), we modeled the solar corona and inner heliosphere of the first encounter of NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (PSP) using the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport–Global Oscillation Network Group magnetograms, and made predictions of the state of the solar wind plasma for the first encounter. AWSoM uses low-frequency Alfvén wave turbulence to address the coronal heating and acceleration. Here, we revise our simulations, by introducing improvements in the energy partitioning of the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton heating and using a better grid design. We compare the new AWSoM results with the PSP data and find improved agreement with the magnetic field, turbulence level, and parallel proton plasma beta. To deduce the sources of the solar wind observed by PSP, we use the AWSoM model to determine the field line connectivity between PSP locations near the perihelion at 2018 November 6 UT 03:27 and the solar surface. Close to the perihelion, the field lines trace back to a negative-polarity region about the equator.more » « less
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Abstract We used the stream-aligned magnetohydrodynamics (SA-MHD) model to simulate Carrington rotation 2210, which contains Parker Solar Probe’s (PSP) first perihelion at 36.5
R ⊙on 2018 November 6, to provide context to the in situ PSP observations by FIELDS and SWEAP. The SA-MHD model aligns the magnetic field with the velocity vector at each point, thereby allowing for clear connectivity between the spacecraft and the source regions on the Sun, without unphysical magnetic field structures. During this Carrington rotation, two stream interaction regions (SIRs) form, due to the deep solar minimum. We include the energy partitioning of the parallel and perpendicular ions and the isotropic electrons to investigate the temperature anisotropy through the compression regions to better understand the wave energy amplification and proton thermal energy partitioning in a global context. Overall, we found good agreement in all in situ plasma parameters between the SA-MHD results and the observations at PSP, STEREO-A, and Earth, including at PSP’s perihelion and through the compression region of the SIRs. In the typical solar wind, the parallel proton temperature is preferentially heated, except in the SIR, where there is an enhancement in the perpendicular proton temperature. This is further showcased in the ion cyclotron relaxation time, which shows a distinct decrease through the SIR compression regions. This work demonstrates the success of the Alfvén wave turbulence theory for predicting interplanetary magnetic turbulence levels, while self-consistently reproducing solar wind speeds, densities, and overall temperatures, including at small heliocentric distances and through SIR compression regions.
