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We explore the performance of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model with near-real-time (NRT) synoptic maps of the photospheric vector magnetic field. These maps, produced by assimilating data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, use a different method developed at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) to provide a near contemporaneous source of data to drive numerical models. Here, we apply these NSO-HMI-NRT maps to simulate three full Carrington rotations: 2107.69 (centered on the 2011 March 7 20:12 CME event), 2123.5 (centered on 2012 May 11), and 2219.12 (centered on the 2019 July 2 solar eclipse), which together cover various activity levels for solar cycle 24. We show the simulation results, which reproduce both extreme ultraviolet emission from the low corona while simultaneously matching in situ observations at 1 au as well as quantify the total unsigned open magnetic flux from these maps.

We describe our first attempt to systematically simulate the solar wind during different phases of the last solar cycle with the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. Key to this study is the determination of the optimal values of one of the most important input parameters of the model, the Poynting flux parameter, which prescribes the energy flux passing through the chromospheric boundary of the model in the form of Alfvén wave turbulence. It is found that the optimal value of the Poynting flux parameter is correlated with the area of the open magnetic field regions with the Spearman’s correlation coefficient of 0.96 and anticorrelated with the average unsigned radial component of the magnetic field with the Spearman’s correlation coefficient of −0.91. Moreover, the Poynting flux in the open field regions is approximately constant in the last solar cycle, which needs to be validated with observations and can shed light on how Alfvén wave turbulence accelerates the solar wind during different phases of the solar cycle. Our results can also be used to set the Poynting flux parameter for real-time solar wind simulations with AWSoM.

We use the Space Weather Modeling Framework Geospace configuration to simulate a total of 122 storms from the period 2010–2019. With the focus on the storm main phase, each storm period was run for 54 hr starting from 6 hr prior to the start of the Dst depression. The simulation output of ground magnetic variations, ΔB_Hin particular, were compared with ground magnetometer station data provided by SuperMAG to statistically assess the Geospace model regional magnetic perturbation prediction performance. Our results show that the regional predictions at mid‐latitudes are quite accurate, but the high‐latitude regional disturbances are still difficult to predict.

Magnetospheric sawtooth oscillations are observed during strong and steady solar wind driving conditions. The simulation results of our global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model with embedded kinetic physics show that when the total magnetic flux carried by constant solar wind exceeds a threshold, sawtooth‐like magnetospheric oscillations are generated. Different from previous works, this result is obtained without involving time‐varying ionospheric outflow in the model. The oscillation period and amplitude agree well with observations. The simulated oscillations cover a wide range of local times, although the distribution of magnitude as a function of longitude is different from observations. Our comparative simulations using ideal or Hall MHD models do not produce global time‐varying features, which suggests that kinetic reconnection physics in the magnetotail is a major contributing factor to sawtooth oscillations.

We perform a geomagnetic event simulation using a newly developed magnetohydrodynamic with adaptively embedded particle‐in‐cell (MHD‐AEPIC) model. We have developed effective criteria to identify reconnection sites in the magnetotail and cover them with the PIC model. The MHD‐AEPIC simulation results are compared with Hall MHD and ideal MHD simulations to study the impacts of kinetic reconnection at multiple physical scales. At the global scale, the three models produce very similar SYM‐H and SuperMag Electrojet indexes, which indicates that the global magnetic field configurations from the three models are very close to each other. We also compare the ionospheric solver results and all three models generate similar polar cap potentials and field‐aligned currents. At the mesoscale, we compare the simulations with in situ Geotail observations in the tail. All three models produce reasonable agreement with the Geotail observations. At the kinetic scales, the MHD‐AEPIC simulation can produce a crescent shape distribution of the electron velocity space at the electron diffusion region, which agrees very well with MMS observations near a tail reconnection site. These electron scale kinetic features are not available in either the Hall MHD or ideal MHD models. Overall, the MHD‐AEPIC model compares well with observations at all scales, it works robustly, and the computational cost is acceptable due to the adaptive adjustment of the PIC domain. It remains to be determined whether kinetic physics can play a more significant role in other types of events, including but not limited to substorms.

The vast size of the Sun’s heliosphere, combined with sparse spacecraft measurements over that large domain, makes numerical modeling a critical tool to predict solar wind conditions where there are no measurements. This study models the solar wind propagation in 2D using the BATSRUS MHD solver to form the MSWIM2D data set of solar wind in the outer heliosphere. Representing the solar wind from 1 to 75 au in the ecliptic plane, a continuous model run from 1995–present has been performed. The results are available for free athttp://csem.engin.umich.edu/mswim2d/. The web interface extracts output at desired locations and times. In addition to solar wind ions, the model includes neutrals coming from the interstellar medium to reproduce the slowing of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere and to extend the utility of the model to larger radial distances. The inclusion of neutral hydrogen is critical to recreating the solar wind accurately outside of ∼4 au. The inner boundary is filled by interpolating and time-shifting in situ observations from L1 and STEREO spacecraft when available. Using multiple spacecraft provides a more accurate boundary condition than a single spacecraft with time shifting alone. Validations of MSWIM2D are performed using MAVEN and New Horizons observations. The results demonstrate the efficacy of this model to propagate the solar wind to large distances and obtain practical, useful solar wind predictions. For example, the rms error of solar wind speed prediction at Mars is only 66 km s⁻¹and at Pluto is a mere 25 km s⁻¹.

To simulate solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and predict their time of arrival and geomagnetic impact, it is important to accurately model the background solar wind conditions in which CMEs propagate. We use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the the Space Weather Modeling Framework to simulate solar maximum conditions during two Carrington rotations and produce solar wind background conditions comparable to the observations. We describe the inner boundary conditions for AWSoM using the ADAPT global magnetic maps and validate the simulated results with EUV observations in the low corona and measured plasma parameters at L1 as well as at the position of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft. This work complements our prior AWSoM validation study for solar minimum conditions and shows that during periods of higher magnetic activity, AWSoM can reproduce the solar plasma conditions (using properly adjusted photospheric Poynting flux) suitable for providing proper initial conditions for launching CMEs.

We use the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) with embedded particle‐in‐cell model (MHD‐EPIC) to study the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) dayside kinetic processes challenge event at 01:50–03:00 UT on 18 November 2015, when the magnetosphere was driven by a steady southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In the MHD‐EPIC simulation, the dayside magnetopause is covered by a PIC code so that the dayside reconnection is properly handled. We compare the magnetic fields and the plasma profiles of the magnetopause crossing with the MMS3 spacecraft observations. Most variables match the observations well in the magnetosphere, in the magnetosheath, and also during the current sheet crossing. The MHD‐EPIC simulation produces flux ropes, and we demonstrate that some magnetic field and plasma features observed by the MMS3 spacecraft can be reproduced by a flux rope crossing event. We use an algorithm to automatically identify the reconnection sites from the simulation results. It turns out that there are usually multiple X‐lines at the magnetopause. By tracing the locations of the X‐lines, we find that the typical moving speed of the X‐line endpoints is about 70 km/s, which is higher than but still comparable with the ground‐based observations.