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1. Conservation value of small reserves

   https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13308  

   Volenec, Zoe M. ; Dobson, Andrew P. ( March 2019 , Conservation Biology)

   The importance of large reserves has been long maintained in the scientific literature, often leading to dismissal of the conservation potential of small reserves. However, over half the global protected‐area inventory is composed of protected areas that are <100 ha, and the median size of added protected area is decreasing. Studies of the conservation value of small reserves and fragments of natural area are relatively uncommon in the literature. We reviewed SCOPUS and WOK for studies on small reserve and fragment contributions to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services, and fifty‐eight taxon‐specific studies were included in the review. Small reserves harbored substantial portions (upward of 50%) of regional species diversity for many taxa (birds, plants, amphibians, and small mammals) and even some endemic, specialist bird species. Unfortunately, small reserves and fragments almost always harbored more generalist and exotic species than large reserves. Community composition depended on habitat quality, surrounding land use (agricultural vs. urban), and reserve and fragment size, which presents opportunities for management and improvement. Small reserves also provided ecosystem services, such as pollination and biological pest control, and cultural services, such as recreation and improved human health. Limitations associated with small reserves, such as extinction debt and support of area‐sensitive species, necessitate a complement of larger reserves. However, we argue that small reserves can make viable and significant contributions to conservation goals directly as habitat and indirectly by increasing landscape connectivity and quality to the benefit of large reserves. To effectively conserve biodiversity for future generations in landscapes fragmented by human development, small reserves and fragments must be included in conservation planning.

    

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2. Progress and opportunities in advancing near‐term forecasting of freshwater quality

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16590  

   Lofton, Mary E. ; Howard, Dexter W. ; Thomas, R. Quinn ; Carey, Cayelan C. ( April 2023 , Global Change Biology)

   Near‐term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub‐daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near‐term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water‐related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near‐term forecasts of waterquantityand that near‐term waterqualityforecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non‐operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near‐term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end‐user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near‐term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management.

    

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3. Impacts of climate change on multiple use management of Bureau of Land Management land in the Intermountain West, USA

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3286  

   Brice, Elaine M. ; Miller, Brett A. ; Zhang, Hongchao ; Goldstein, Kirsten ; Zimmer, Scott N. ; Grosklos, Guenchik J. ; Belmont, Patrick ; Flint, Courtney G. ; Givens, Jennifer E. ; Adler, Peter B. ; et al ( November 2020 , Ecosphere)

   Although natural resource managers are concerned about climate change, many are unable to adequately incorporate climate change science into their adaptation strategies or management plans, and are not always aware of or do not always employ the most current scientific knowledge. One of the most prominent natural resource management agencies in the United States is the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is tasked with managing over 248 million acres (>1 million km²) of public lands for multiple, often conflicting, uses. Climate change will affect the sustainability of many of these land uses and could further increase conflicts between them. As such, the purpose of our study was to determine the extent to which climate change will affect public land uses, and whether the BLM is managing for such predicted effects. To do so, we first conducted a systematic review of peer‐reviewed literature that discussed potential impacts of climate change on the multiple land uses the BLM manages in the Intermountain West, USA, and then expanded these results with a synthesis of projected vegetation changes. Finally, we conducted a content analysis of BLM Resource Management Plans in order to determine how climate change is explicitly addressed by BLM managers, and whether such plans reflect changes predicted by the scientific literature. We found that active resource use generally threatens intrinsic values such as conservation and ecosystem services on BLM land, and climate change is expected to exacerbate these threats in numerous ways. Additionally, our synthesis of vegetation modeling suggests substantial changes in vegetation due to climate change. However, BLM plans rarely referred to climate change explicitly and did not reflect the results of the literature review or vegetation model synthesis. Our results suggest there is a disconnect between management of BLM lands and the best available science on climate change. We recommend that the BLM actively integrates such research into on‐the‐ground management plans and activities, and that researchers studying the effects of climate change make a more robust effort to understand the practices and policies of public land management in order to effectively communicate the management significance of their findings.

    

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4. Visitors’ Environmental Concerns in Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary: An Offshore Marine Protected Area

   https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071425  

   Lemmen, Marieke ; Burns, Robert C. ; Andrew, Ross G. ; Moreira, Jasmine Cardozo ( April 2023 , Water)

   Marine sanctuaries serve as popular destinations for ecotourism, natural resource exploration, and recreation across the US. While often positive, visitation in marine and coastal areas can cause ecological threats to these ecosystems. Increased visitation in marine environments has led to the need for management due to negative ecological and social impacts. Understanding environmental values, attitudes, and perceptions is important to the success of environmental protection. Using online surveys sent via Qualtrics asking questions regarding the users’ knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of ocean resources, goods and services, this research focused on identifying user profiles and understanding their environmental perception associated with Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary, an offshore marine protected area, and surrounding coastal Georgia. The results show that across multiple types of threats or phenomena, respondents are most concerned about threats to resources related to pollution. Furthermore, they support marine protection and are willing to adjust their consumption habits, such as recycling and energy use, to ensure the sustainable use of ocean resources. The inclusion of insights achieved through research about visitor perceptions into management decision making and planning can positively contribute to the success of environmental protection.

    

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5. Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13078  

   Ferin, Kelsie M. ; Balson, Tyler ; Audia, Ellen ; Ward, Adam S. ; Liess, Stefan ; Twine, Tracy E. ; VanLoocke, Andy ( June 2023 , GCB Bioenergy)

   The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

    

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