Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well‐established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global‐extent, country‐level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non‐human‐dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.
- Award ID(s):
- 2017949
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10353711
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 119
- Issue:
- 25
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
BACKGROUND Madagascar is one of the world’s foremost biodiversity hotspots. Its unique assemblage of plants, animals, and fungi—the majority of which evolved on the island and occur nowhere else—is both diverse and threatened. After human arrival, the island’s entire megafauna became extinct, and large portions of the current flora and fauna may be on track for a similar fate. Conditions for the long-term survival of many Malagasy species are not currently met because of multiple anthropogenic threats. ADVANCES We review the extinction risk and threats to biodiversity in Madagascar, using available international assessment data as well as a machine learning analysis to predict the extinction risks and threats to plant species lacking assessments. Our compilation of global International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments shows that overexploitation alongside unsustainable agricultural practices affect 62.1 and 56.8% of vertebrate species, respectively, and each affects nearly 90% of all plant species. Other threats have a relatively minor effect today but are expected to increase in coming decades. Because only one-third (4652) of all Malagasy plant species have been formally assessed, we carried out a neural network analysis to predict the putative status and threats for 5887 unassessed species and to evaluate biases in current assessments. The percentage of plant species currently assessed as under threat is probably representative of actual numbers, except in the case of the ferns and lycophytes, where significantly more species are estimated to be threatened. We find that Madagascar is home to a disproportionately high number of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) species. This further highlights the urgency for evidence-based and effective in situ and ex situ conservation. Despite these alarming statistics and trends, we find that 10.4% of Madagascar’s land area is protected and that the network of protected areas (PAs) covers at least part of the range of 97.1% of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates with known distributions (amphibians, freshwater fishes, reptiles, birds, and mammal species combined) and 67.7% of plant species (for threatened species, the percentages are 97.7% for vertebrates and 79.6% for plants). Complementary to this, ex situ collections hold 18% of vertebrate species and 23% of plant species. Nonetheless, there are still many threatened species that do not occur within PAs and are absent from ex situ collections, including one amphibian, three mammals, and seven reptiles, as well as 559 plants and more yet to be assessed. Based on our updated vegetation map, we find that the current PA network provides good coverage of the major habitats, particularly mangroves, spiny forest, humid forest, and tapia, but subhumid forest and grassland-woodland mosaic have very low areas under protection (5.7 and 1.8% respectively). OUTLOOK Madagascar is among the world’s poorest countries, and its biodiversity is a key resource for the sustainable future and well-being of its citizens. Current threats to Madagascar’s biodiversity are deeply rooted in historical and present social contexts, including widespread inequalities. We therefore propose five opportunities for action to further conservation in a just and equitable way. First, investment in conservation and restoration must be based on evidence and effectiveness and be tailored to meet future challenges through inclusive solutions. Second, expanded biodiversity monitoring, including increased dataset production and availability, is key. Third, improving the effectiveness of existing PAs—for example through community engagement, training, and income opportunities—is more important than creating new ones. Fourth, conservation and restoration should not focus solely on the PA network but should also include the surrounding landscapes and communities. And finally, conservation actions must address the root causes of biodiversity loss, including poverty and food insecurity. In the eyes of much of the world, Madagascar’s biodiversity is a unique global asset that needs saving; in the daily lives of many of the Malagasy people, it is a rapidly diminishing source of the most basic needs for subsistence. Protecting Madagascar’s biodiversity while promoting social development for its people is a matter of the utmost urgency Visual representation of five key opportunities for conserving and restoring Madagascar’s rapidly declining biodiversity identified in this Review. The dashed lines point to representative vegetation types where these recommendations could have tangible effects, but the opportunities are applicable across Madagascar. ILLUSTRATION: INESSA VOETmore » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Protected areas are a key component of global conservation, and the world is aiming to increase protected areas to cover 30% of land and water through the 30 × 30 Initiative under the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. However, factors affecting their success or failure in regard to promoting mammal population recovery are not well studied, particularly using quantitative approaches comparing across diverse taxa, biomes, and countries. To better understand how protected areas contribute to mammalian recovery, we conducted an analysis of 2706 mammal populations both inside and outside of protected areas worldwide. We calculated the annual percent change of mammal populations within and outside of terrestrial protected areas and examined the relationship between the percent change and a suite of human and natural characteristics including biome, region, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) protected area category, IUCN Red List classification, and taxonomic order. Our results show that overall mammal populations inside and outside of protected areas are relatively stable. It appears that Threatened mammals are doing better inside of protected areas than outside, whereas the opposite is true for species of least concern and Near Threatened species. We also found significant population increases in protected areas classified as category III and significant population decreases in protected and unprotected areas throughout Oceania. Our results demonstrate that terrestrial protected areas can be an important approach for mammalian recovery and conservation.
-
more » « less
Abstract Large terrestrial herbivorous mammals (LTH‐mammals) influence plant community structure by affecting seedling establishment in mature tropical forests. Many of these LTH‐mammals frequent secondary forests, but their effects on seedling establishment in them are understudied, hindering our understanding of how LTH‐mammals influence forest regeneration in human‐modified landscapes.
We tested the hypothesis that the strength of LTH‐mammals' effects on seedling establishment depends on landscape protection, forest successional stage and plant species' traits using a manipulative field experiment in six 1‐ha sites with varying successional age and landscape protection. In each site, we established 40 seedling plot‐pairs, with one plot excluding LTH‐mammals and one not, and monitored seedlings of 116 woody species for 26 months.
We found significant effects of LTH‐mammal exclusion on seedling survival contingent upon the protection of forests at the landscape level and forest stage. After 26 months, survival differences between LTH‐mammal exclusion and non‐exclusion treatments were greater in protected than unprotected landscapes. Additionally, plant species' traits were related to the LTH‐mammals' differential effects, as LTH‐mammals reduced the survival of seedlings of larger‐seeded species the most. Overall, LTH‐mammals' effects translated into significant shifts in community composition as seedling communities inside and outside the exclosures diverged. Moreover, lower density and higher species diversity were found as early as 12 and 18 months outside than inside exclosures.
Synthesis and applications. Insight into the interactions between LTH‐mammals and seedling communities in forest regeneration can be instrumental in planning effective restoration efforts. We highlight the importance of landscape protection in seedling survival and the role of LTH‐mammals in promoting seedling diversity in mature forests but also in secondary successional forests. The findings suggest that conservation efforts and possibly trophic rewilding can be important approaches for preserving diversity and influencing the trajectory of secondary tropical forest succession. However, we also caution that an overabundance of LTH‐mammals may adversely impact the pace of forest succession due to their preference for large‐seeded species. Therefore, a comprehensive wildlife management plan is indispensable. Additionally, longer term studies on LTH‐mammals are necessary to understand the effects of temporal fluctuations that are undetected in short‐term studies. -
more » « less
Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in conserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, yet their effectiveness is undermined by funding shortfalls. Using lions (
Panthera leo ) as a proxy for PA health, we assessed available funding relative to budget requirements for PAs in Africa’s savannahs. We compiled a dataset of 2015 funding for 282 state-owned PAs with lions. We applied three methods to estimate the minimum funding required for effective conservation of lions, and calculated deficits. We estimated minimum required funding as $978/km2per year based on the cost of effectively managing lions in nine reserves by the African Parks Network; $1,271/km2based on modeled costs of managing lions at ≥50% carrying capacity across diverse conditions in 115 PAs; and $2,030/km2based on Packer et al.’s [Packer et al. (2013)Ecol Lett 16:635–641] cost of managing lions in 22 unfenced PAs. PAs with lions require a total of $1.2 to $2.4 billion annually, or ∼$1,000 to 2,000/km2, yet received only $381 million annually, or a median of $200/km2. Ninety-six percent of range countries had funding deficits in at least one PA, with 88 to 94% of PAs with lions funded insufficiently. In funding-deficit PAs, available funding satisfied just 10 to 20% of PA requirements on average, and deficits total $0.9 to $2.1 billion. African governments and the international community need to increase the funding available for management by three to six times if PAs are to effectively conserve lions and other species and provide vital ecological and economic benefits to neighboring communities.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2026733119
