skip to main content

This content will become publicly available on June 16, 2023

Title: Massive black hole mergers with orbital information: predictions from the ASTRID simulation
ABSTRACT We examine massive black hole (MBH) mergers and their associated gravitational wave signals from the large-volume cosmological simulation Astrid . Astrid includes galaxy formation and black hole models recently updated with an MBH seed population between 3 × 104h−1M⊙ and 3 × 105h−1M⊙ and a sub-grid dynamical friction (DF) model to follow the MBH dynamics down to 1.5 ckpc h−1. We calculate the initial eccentricities of MBH orbits directly from the simulation at kpc-scales, and find orbital eccentricities above 0.7 for most MBH pairs before the numerical merger. After approximating unresolved evolution on scales below ${\sim 200\, \text{pc}}$, we find that the in-simulation DF on large scales accounts for more than half of the total orbital decay time ($\sim 500\, \text{Myr}$) due to DF. The binary hardening time is an order of magnitude longer than the DF time, especially for the seed-mass binaries (MBH < 2Mseed). As a result, only $\lesssim 20{{\rm per \,cent}}$ of seed MBH pairs merge at z > 3 after considering both unresolved DF evolution and binary hardening. These z > 3 seed-mass mergers are hosted in a biased population of galaxies with the highest stellar masses of $\gt 10^9\, {\rm M}_\odot$. With the higher initial eccentricity prediction from Astrid , we estimate an more » expected merger rate of 0.3−0.7 per year from the z > 3 MBH population. This is a factor of ∼7 higher than the prediction using the circular orbit assumption. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna events are expected at a similar rate, and comprise $\gtrsim 60\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ seed-seed mergers, $\sim 30\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ involving only one seed-mass MBH, and $\sim 10\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ mergers of non-seed MBHs. « less
Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Award ID(s):
1817256
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10356106
Journal Name:
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume:
514
Issue:
2
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
2220 to 2238
ISSN:
0035-8711
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ABSTRACT

    In this work, we establish and test methods for implementing dynamical friction (DF) for massive black hole pairs that form in large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that include galaxy formation and black hole growth. We verify our models and parameters both for individual black hole dynamics and for the black hole population in cosmological volumes. Using our model of DF from collisionless particles, black holes can effectively sink close to the galaxy centre, provided that the black hole’s dynamical mass is at least twice that of the lowest mass resolution particles in the simulation. Gas drag also plays a role in assisting the black holes’ orbital decay, but it is typically less effective than that from collisionless particles, especially after the first billion years of the black hole’s evolution. DF from gas becomes less than $1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of DF from collisionless particles for BH masses >107 M⊙. Using our best DF model, we calculate the merger rate down to z = 1.1 using an Lbox = 35 Mpc h−1 simulation box. We predict ∼2 mergers per year for z > 1.1 peaking at z ∼ 2. These merger rates are within the range obtained in previous work using similar resolution hydrodynamical simulations.more »We show that the rate is enhanced by factor of ∼2 when DF is taken into account in the simulations compared to the no-DF run. This is due to ${\gt}40{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ more black holes reaching the centre of their host halo when DF is added.

    « less
  2. ABSTRACT Accretion discs around supermassive black holes are promising sites for stellar mass black hole mergers detectable with LIGO. Here we present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of black hole mergers within 1-d AGN disc models. For the spin distribution in the disc bulk, key findings are: (1) The distribution of χeff is naturally centred around $\tilde{\chi }_{\rm eff} \approx 0.0$, (2) the width of the χeff distribution is narrow for low natal spins. For the mass distribution in the disc bulk, key findings are: (3) mass ratios $\tilde{q} \sim 0.5\!-\!0.7$, (4) the maximum merger mass in the bulk is $\sim 100\!-\!200\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, (5) $\sim 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of bulk mergers involve BH $\gt 50\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ with (6) $\simeq 80{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of bulk mergers are pairs of first generation BH. Additionally, mergers at a migration trap grow an IMBH with typical merger mass ratios $\tilde{q}\sim 0.1$. Ongoing LIGO non-detections of black holes $\gt 10^{2}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ puts strong limits on the presence of migration traps in AGN discs (and therefore AGN disc density and structure) as well as median AGN disc lifetime. The highest merger rate occurs for this channel if AGN discs aremore »relatively short-lived (≤1 Myr) so multiple AGN episodes can happen per Galactic nucleus in a Hubble time.« less
  3. ABSTRACT Massive black hole (MBH) binary inspiral time-scales are uncertain, and their spins are even more poorly constrained. Spin misalignment introduces asymmetry in the gravitational radiation, which imparts a recoil kick to the merged MBH. Understanding how MBH binary spins evolve is crucial for determining their recoil velocities, their gravitational wave (GW) waveforms detectable with Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, and their retention rate in galaxies. Here, we introduce a sub-resolution model for gas- and gravitational wave (GW)-driven MBH binary spin evolution using accreting MBHs from the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. We also model binary inspiral via dynamical friction, stellar scattering, viscous gas drag, and GW emission. Our model assumes that the circumbinary disc always removes angular momentum from the binary. It also assumes differential accretion, which causes greater alignment of the secondary MBH spin in unequal-mass mergers. We find that 47 per cent of the MBHs in our population merge by z = 0. Of these, 19 per cent have misaligned primaries and 10 per cent have misaligned secondaries at the time of merger in our fiducial model with initial eccentricity of 0.6 and accretion rates from Illustris. The MBH misalignment fraction depends strongly on the accretion disc parameters, however. Reducing accretion rates by a factor ofmore »100, in a thicker disc, yields 79 and 42 per cent misalignment for primaries and secondaries, respectively. Even in the more conservative fiducial model, more than 12 per cent of binaries experience recoils of >500 km s−1, which could displace them at least temporarily from galactic nuclei. We additionally find that a significant number of systems experience strong precession.« less
  4. ABSTRACT

    We use the simba cosmological galaxy formation simulation to investigate the relationship between major mergers ($\lesssim$4:1), starbursts, and galaxy quenching. Mergers are identified via sudden jumps in stellar mass M* well above that expected from in situ star formation, while quenching is defined as going from specific star formation rate (sSFR) $\gt t_{\rm H}^{-1}$ to $\lt 0.2t_{\rm H}^{-1}$, where tH is the Hubble time. At z ≈ 0–3, mergers show ∼2–3× higher SFR than a mass-matched sample of star-forming galaxies, but globally represent $\lesssim 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the cosmic SF budget. At low masses, the increase in SFR in mergers is mostly attributed to an increase in the H2 content, but for $M_*\gtrsim 10^{10.5} \,\mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$ mergers also show an elevated star formation efficiency suggesting denser gas within merging galaxies. The merger rate for star-forming galaxies shows a rapid increase with redshift, ∝(1 + z)3.5, but the quenching rate evolves much more slowly, ∝(1 + z)0.9; there are insufficient mergers to explain the quenching rate at $z\lesssim 1.5$. simba first quenches galaxies at $z\gtrsim 3$, with a number density in good agreement with observations. The quenching time-scales τq are strongly bimodal, with ‘slow’ quenchings (τq ∼ 0.1tH) dominating overall,more »but ‘fast’ quenchings (τq ∼ 0.01tH) dominating in M* ∼ 1010–1010.5 M$\odot$ galaxies, likely induced by simba’s jet-mode black hole feedback. The delay time distribution between mergers and quenching events suggests no physical connection to either fast or slow quenching. Hence, simba predicts that major mergers induce starbursts, but are unrelated to quenching in either fast or slow mode.

    « less
  5. ABSTRACT

    The association of GRB170817A with a binary neutron star (BNS) merger has revealed that BNSs produce at least a fraction of short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs). As gravitational wave (GW) detectors push their horizons, it is important to assess coupled electromagnetic (EM)/GW probabilities and maximize observational prospects. Here, we perform BNS population synthesis calculations with the code mobse, seeding the binaries in galaxies at three representative redshifts, $z$ = 0.01, 0.1, and 1 of the Illustris TNG50 simulation. The binaries are evolved and their locations numerically tracked in the host galactic potentials until merger. Adopting the microphysics parameters of GRB170817A, we numerically compute the broad-band light curves of jets from BNS mergers, with the afterglow brightness dependent on the local medium density at the merger site. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the resulting EM population assuming either a random viewing angle with respect to the jet, or a jet aligned with the orbital angular momentum of the binary, which biases the viewing angle probability for GW-triggered events. We find a gamma-ray detection probability of $\sim\!2{{\rm per\ cent}},10{{\rm per\ cent}},\mathrm{and}\ 40{{\rm per\ cent}}$ for BNSs at $z$ = 1, 0.1, and 0.01, respectively, for the random case, rising to $\sim\!75{{\rm per\ cent}}$more »for the $z$ = 0.01, GW-triggered aligned case. Afterglow detection probabilities of GW-triggered BNS mergers vary in the range of $\sim \! 0.3 \!-\! 0.5{{\rm per\ cent}}$, with higher values for aligned jets, and are comparable across the high- and low-energy bands, unlike gamma-ray-triggered events (cosmological SGRBs) which are significantly brighter at higher energies. We further quantify observational biases with respect to host galaxy masses.

    « less