Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) are expected to enable reliable and efficient transportation systems. Most motion planning algorithms for multi-agent systems are not completely safe because they implicitly assume that all vehicles/agents will execute the expected plan with a small error. This assumption, however, is hard to keep for CAVs since they may have to slow down (e.g., to yield to a jaywalker) or are forced to stop (e.g. break down), sometimes even without a notice. Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) defines a set of safety rules for each driving scenario to ensure that a vehicle will not cause an accident irrespective of other vehicles' behavior. RSS rules, however, are hard to evaluate for merge, intersection, and unstructured road scenarios. In addition, deadlock situations can happen that are not considered by the RSS. In this paper, we propose a generic version of RSS rules for CAVs that can be applied to any driving scenario. We integrate the proposed RSS rules with the CAV's motion planning algorithm to enable cooperative driving of CAVs. Our approach can also detect and resolve deadlocks in a decentralized manner. We have conducted experiments to verify that a CAV does not cause an accident no matter when other CAVs slow down or stop. We also showcase our deadlock detection and resolution mechanism. Finally, we compare the average velocity and fuel consumption of vehicles when they drive autonomously but not connected with the case that they are connected.
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DEC-LOS-RRT: Decentralized Path Planning for Multi-robot Systems with Line-of-sight Constrained Communication
Decentralized planning for multi-agent systems, such as fleets of robots in a search-and-rescue operation, is often constrained by limitations on how agents can communicate with each other. One such limitation is the case when agents can communicate with each other only when they are in line-of-sight (LOS). Developing decentralized planning methods that guarantee safety is difficult in this case, as agents that are occluded from each other might not be able to communicate until it’s too late to avoid a safety violation. In this paper, we develop a decentralized planning method that explicitly avoids situations where lack of visibility of other agents would lead to an unsafe situation. Building on top of an existing Rapidly exploring Random Tree (RRT)-based approach, our method guarantees safety at each iteration. Simulation studies show the effectiveness of our method and compare the degradation in performance with respect to a clairvoyant decentralized planning algorithm where agents can communicate despite not being in LOS of each other.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1743772
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10356666
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2021 IEEE Conference on Control Technology and Applications (CCTA)
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 103 to 110
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) are expected to enable reliable, efficient, and intelligent transportation systems. Most motion planning algorithms for multi-agent systems implicitly assume that all vehicles/agents will execute the expected plan with a small error and evaluate their safety constraints based on this fact. This assumption, however, is hard to keep for CAVs since they may have to change their plan (e.g., to yield to another vehicle) or are forced to stop (e.g., A CAV may break down). While it is desired that a CAV never gets involved in an accident, it may be hit by other vehicles and sometimes, preventing the accident is impossible (e.g., getting hit from behind while waiting behind the red light). Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS) is a set of safety rules that defines the objective of CAV to blame, instead of safety. Thus, instead of developing a CAV algorithm that will avoid any accident, it ensures that the ego vehicle will not be blamed for any accident it is a part of. Original RSS rules, however, are hard to evaluate for merge, intersection, and unstructured road scenarios, plus RSS rules do not prevent deadlock situations among vehicles. In this paper, we propose a new formulation for RSS rules that can be applied to any driving scenario. We integrate the proposed RSS rules with the CAV’s motion planning algorithm to enable cooperative driving of CAVs. We use Control Barrier Functions to enforce safety constraints and compute the energy optimal trajectory for the ego CAV. Finally, to ensure liveness, our approach detects and resolves deadlocks in a decentralized manner. We have conducted different experiments to verify that the ego CAV does not cause an accident no matter when other CAVs slow down or stop. We also showcase our deadlock detection and resolution mechanism using our simulator. Finally, we compare the average velocity and fuel consumption of vehicles when they drive autonomously with the case that they are autonomous and connected.more » « less
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In open agent systems, the set of agents that are cooperating or competing changes over time and in ways that are nontrivial to predict. For example, if collaborative robots were tasked with fighting wildfires, they may run out of suppressants and be temporarily unavailable to assist their peers. We consider the problem of planning in these contexts with the additional challenges that the agents are unable to communicate with each other and that there are many of them. Because an agent's optimal action depends on the actions of others, each agent must not only predict the actions of its peers, but, before that, reason whether they are even present to perform an action. Addressing openness thus requires agents to model each other's presence, which becomes computationally intractable with high numbers of agents. We present a novel, principled, and scalable method in this context that enables an agent to reason about others' presence in its shared environment and their actions. Our method extrapolates models of a few peers to the overall behavior of the many-agent system, and combines it with a generalization of Monte Carlo tree search to perform individual agent reasoning in many-agent open environments. Theoretical analyses establish the number of agents to model in order to achieve acceptable worst case bounds on extrapolation error, as well as regret bounds on the agent's utility from modeling only some neighbors. Simulations of multiagent wildfire suppression problems demonstrate our approach's efficacy compared with alternative baselines.more » « less
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Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.
Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.
Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.
Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (
https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z). -
null (Ed.)In many real-world scenarios, the time it takes for a mobile agent, e.g., a robot, to move from one location to another may vary due to exogenous events and be difficult to predict accurately. Planning in such scenarios is challenging, especially in the context of Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF), where the goal is to find paths to multiple agents and temporal coordination is necessary to avoid collisions. In this work, we consider a MAPF problem with this form of time uncertainty, where we are only given upper and lower bounds on the time it takes each agent to move. The objective is to find a safe solution, which is a solution that can be executed by all agents and is guaranteed to avoid collisions. We propose two complete and optimal algorithms for finding safe solutions based on well-known MAPF algorithms, namely, A* with Operator Decomposition (A* + OD) and Conflict-Based Search (CBS). Experimentally, we observe that on several standard MAPF grids the CBS-based algorithm performs better. We also explore the option of online replanning in this context, i.e., modifying the agents' plans during execution, to reduce the overall execution cost. We consider two online settings: (a) when an agent can sense the current time and its current location, and (b) when the agents can also communicate seamlessly during execution. For each setting, we propose a replanning algorithm and analyze its behavior theoretically and empirically. Our experimental evaluation confirms that indeed online replanning in both settings can significantly reduce solution cost.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/CCTA48906.2021.9659247
