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Abstract River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km2yr−1for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km2yr−1for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea‐level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate‐change driven sea‐level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land.
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Alternative Implementations of the “Pseudo‐Global‐Warming” Methodology for Event‐Based Simulations
Abstract The pseudo‐global‐warming (PGW) methodology provides an efficient means to investigate the response of a weather or climate event under an imposed climate change signal. In the traditional PGW implementation, this signal is represented through climate‐change “deltas” constructed using monthly averages of global climate model (GCM) output over decadal or longer periods during the past and future. The implications of alternative formulations of such deltas were explored herein. Diurnally varying (DV) deltas were compared to the time‐constant (TC) deltas used in the traditional PGW implementation; this was done to test the potential effect of future changes in the diurnal cycles of temperature, humidity, and winds. Deltas created using 10‐year averages were compared to those using 30‐year averages, to examine the effects of the time‐averaging period in the delta construction. Finally, the common practice of additionally averaging across multiple GCMs to form a composite delta was also considered. Using simulations of three different historical convective storm events, it was shown that each of these PGW delta formulations results in differences in simulation metrics such as total accumulated rainfall, and convective intensity, but major and/or unambiguous differences were not always found. It is recommended that users of the PGW approach carefully consider all implications of delta formulation on their particular problem.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1923042
- PAR ID:
- 10361519
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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