skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Intensification of Tilted Tropical Cyclones over Relatively Cool and Warm Oceans in Idealized Numerical Simulations
Abstract A cloud-resolving model is used to examine the intensification of tilted tropical cyclones from depression to hurricane strength over relatively cool and warm oceans under idealized conditions where environmental vertical wind shear has become minimal. Variation of the SST does not substantially change the time-averaged relationship between tilt and the radial length scale of the inner core, or between tilt and the azimuthal distribution of precipitation during the hurricane formation period (HFP). By contrast, for systems having similar structural parameters, the HFP lengthens superlinearly in association with a decline of the precipitation rate as the SST decreases from 30° to 26°C. In many simulations, hurricane formation progresses from a phase of slow or neutral intensification to fast spinup. The transition to fast spinup occurs after the magnitudes of tilt and convective asymmetry drop below certain SST-dependent levels following an alignment process explained in an earlier paper. For reasons examined herein, the alignment coincides with enhancements of lower–middle-tropospheric relative humidity and lower-tropospheric CAPE inward of the radius of maximum surface wind speedrm. Such moist-thermodynamic modifications appear to facilitate initiation of the faster mode of intensification, which involves contraction ofrmand the characteristic radius of deep convection. The mean transitional values of the tilt magnitude and lower–middle-tropospheric relative humidity for SSTs of 28°–30°C are respectively higher and lower than their counterparts at 26°C. Greater magnitudes of the surface enthalpy flux and core deep-layer CAPE found at the higher SSTs plausibly compensate for less complete alignment and core humidification at the transition time.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1743854
PAR ID:
10363100
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 
Publisher / Repository:
American Meteorological Society
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume:
79
Issue:
2
ISSN:
0022-4928
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 485-512
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Tropical cyclone intensification is simulated with a cloud-resolving model under idealized conditions of constant SST and unidirectional environmental vertical wind shear maximized in the middle troposphere. The intensification process commonly involves a sharp transition to relatively fast spinup before the surface vortex achieves hurricane-force winds in the azimuthal mean. The vast majority of transitions fall into one of two categories labeled S and A. Type S transitions initiate quasi-symmetric modes of fast spinup. They occur in tropical cyclones after a major reduction of tilt and substantial azimuthal spreading of inner-core convection. The lead-up also entails gradual contractions of the radii of maximum wind speedrmand maximum precipitation. Type A transitions begin before an asymmetric tropical cyclone becomes vertically aligned. Instead of enabling the transition, alignment is an essential part of the initially asymmetric mode of fast spinup that follows. On average, type S transitions occur well after and type A transitions occur once the cyclonically rotating tilt vector becomes perpendicular to the shear vector. Prominent temporal peaks of lower-tropospheric CAPE and low-to-midlevel relative humidity averaged over the entire inner core of the low-level vortex characteristically coincide with type S but not with type A transitions. Prominent temporal peaks of precipitation and midlevel vertical mass flux in the meso-β-scale vicinity of the convergence center characteristically coincide with type A but not with type S transitions. Despite such differences, in both cases, the transitions tend not to begin before the distance between the low-level convergence and vortex centers divided byrmreduces to unity. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract This study uses a recently developed airborne Doppler radar database to explore how vortex misalignment is related to tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation structure and intensity change. It is found that for relatively weak TCs, defined here as storms with a peak 10-m wind of 65 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or less, the magnitude of vortex tilt is closely linked to the rate of subsequent TC intensity change, especially over the next 12–36 h. In strong TCs, defined as storms with a peak 10-m wind greater than 65 kt, vortex tilt magnitude is only weakly correlated with TC intensity change. Based on these findings, this study focuses on how vortex tilt is related to TC precipitation structure and intensity change in weak TCs. To illustrate how the TC precipitation structure is related to the magnitude of vortex misalignment, weak TCs are divided into two groups: small-tilt and large-tilt TCs. In large-tilt TCs, storms display a relatively large radius of maximum wind, the precipitation structure is asymmetric, and convection occurs more frequently near the midtropospheric TC center than the lower-tropospheric TC center. Alternatively, small-tilt TCs exhibit a greater areal coverage of precipitation inward of a relatively small radius of maximum wind. Greater rates of TC intensification, including rapid intensification, are shown to occur preferentially for TCs with greater vertical alignment and storms in relatively favorable environments. Significance StatementAccurately predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is challenging. This is particularly true for storms that undergo rapid intensity changes. Recent numerical modeling studies have suggested that vortex vertical alignment commonly precedes the onset of rapid intensification; however, this consensus is not unanimous. Until now, there has not been a systematic observational analysis of the relationship between vortex misalignment and TC intensity change. This study addresses this gap using a recently developed airborne radar database. We show that the degree of vortex misalignment is a useful predictor for TC intensity change, but primarily for weak storms. In these cases, more aligned TCs exhibit precipitation patterns that favor greater intensification rates. Future work should explore the causes of changes in vortex alignment. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Contributions of atmospheric factors to the variability of the calculated theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic are explored using the 6‐hourly atmospheric reanalysis and TC best track data from 1980 to 2015. The results show that for a given sea surface temperature (SST), the calculated theoretical MPI between the medians of top 10% and bottom 10% samples can vary by as large as 10–15 m/s, which accounts for 20–25% of the median of the MPI. It is shown that the drier (moister) and colder (warmer) environment favors higher (lower) MPI, and the TC‐MPI is more sensitive to atmospheric temperature at lower SSTs but more sensitive to atmospheric humidity at higher SSTs. Results from sensitivity experiments show that the tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles and the outflow layer temperature are all responsible for the MPI variability, but their relative importance vary with SST. The atmospheric humidity accounts for 12–13 (7–11) m/s at SSTs over (below) 28 °C, the tropospheric temperature accounts for about 7–12 (5–6) m/s at SSTs below (above) 28 °C, and the outflow temperature accounts for 7–8 m/s almost independent of SST. These results strongly suggest that the modulation of MPI by synoptic variability needs to be considered when MPI is calculated and used as a predictor/parameter in operational TC intensity prediction schemes, especially for strong TCs. Some other implications of the results are also discussed. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract A cloud-resolving model is used to examine the virtually shear-free evolution of incipient tropical cyclones initialized with different degrees of misalignment between the lower- and middle-tropospheric centers of rotation. Increasing the initial displacement of rotational centers (the tilt) from a negligible value to several hundred kilometers extends the time scale of hurricane formation from 1 to 10 days. Hindered amplification of the maximum tangential velocity υm at the surface of a strongly perturbed system is related to an extended duration of misalignment resulting from incomplete early decay and subsequent transient growth of the tilt magnitude. The prolonged misalignment coincides with a prolonged period of asymmetric convection peaked far from the surface center of the vortex. A Sawyer–Eliassen model is used to analyze the disparity between azimuthal velocity tendencies of selected pre–tropical storm vortices with low and high degrees of misalignment. Although no single factor completely explains the difference of intensification rates, greater misalignment is linked to weaker positive azimuthal velocity forcing near υm by the component of the mean secondary circulation attributed to heating by microphysical cloud processes. Of note regarding the dynamics, enhanced tilt only modestly affects the growth rate of kinetic energy outside the core of the surface vortex while severely hindering intensification of υm within the core for at least several days. The processes controlling the evolution of the misalignment associated with inefficient development are examined in detail for a selected simulation. It is found that adiabatic mechanisms are capable of driving the transient amplification of tilt, whereas diabatic processes are essential to ultimate alignment of the tropical cyclone. 
    more » « less
  5. Monthly-mean data of ERA-Interim reanalysis, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and sea surface temperature(SST) are investigated for 40 years (1979-2018) to reveal the modulation of the global monsoon systems by the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), focusing only on the neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods (in total 374 months). First, the climatology of the global monsoon systems is viewed with longitude-latitude plots of the precipitation, its proxies and lower tropospheric circulations for the annual mean and two solstice seasons, together with the composite differences between the two seasons. In addition to seasonal variations of Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs), several regional monsoon systems are well identified with an anti-phase of the annual cycle between the two hemispheres. Precipitation-related quantities (OLR and specific humidity), surface conditions [i.e., mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and SST] and circulation fields related to moist convection systems show fundamental features of the global monsoon systems. After introducing eight QBO phases based on the leading two principal components of the zonal-mean zonal wind variations in the equatorial lower-stratosphere, the statistical significance of the composite difference in the precipitation and tropospheric circulation is evaluated for the opposite QBO phases. The composite differences show significant modulations in some regional monsoon systems, dominated by zonally asymmetric components, with the largest magnitudes for specific QBO-phases corresponding to traditional indices of the equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind at 20 and 50 hPa. Along the equator, significant QBO influence is characterized by the modulation of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific. In middle latitudes during boreal summer, for a specific QBO-phase, statistically significant modulation of low-pressure cyclonic perturbation is obtained over the Northern-Hemisphere western Pacific Ocean associated with statistically significant features of heavier precipitation over the eastern side of the cyclonic perturbation and the opposite lighter precipitation over the western side. During boreal winter, similar significant low-pressure cyclonic perturbations were found over the Northern-Hemisphere eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans for specific phases. 
    more » « less