skip to main content

Title: Understanding the effects of climate change via disturbance on pristine arctic lakes—multitrophic level response and recovery to a 12‐yr, low‐level fertilization experiment
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Award ID(s):
Publication Date:
Journal Name:
Limnology and Oceanography
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract The Great Plains (GP) southerly nocturnal low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a dominant contributor to the region’s warm-season (May–September) mean and extreme precipitation, wind energy generation, and severe weather outbreaks—including mesoscale convective systems. The spatiotemporal structure, variability, and impact of individual GPLLJ events are closely related to their degree of upper-level synoptic coupling, which varies from strong coupling in synoptic trough–ridge environments to weak coupling in quiescent, synoptic ridge environments. Here, we apply an objective dynamic classification of GPLLJ upper-level coupling and fully characterize strongly coupled (C) and relatively uncoupled (UC) GPLLJs from the perspective of the ground-based observer. Through composite analyses of C and UC GPLLJ event samples taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Coupled Earth Reanalysis of the twentieth century (CERA-20C), we address how the frequency of these jet types, as well as their inherent weather- and climate-relevant characteristics—including wind speed, direction, and shear; atmospheric stability; and precipitation—vary on diurnal and monthly time scales across the southern, central, and northern subregions of the GP. It is shown that C and UC GPLLJ events have similar diurnal phasing, but the diurnal amplitude is much greater for UC GPLLJs. C GPLLJs tend to have a faster andmore »more elevated jet nose, less low-level wind shear, and enhanced CAPE and precipitation. UC GPLLJs undergo a larger inertial oscillation (Blackadar mechanism) for all subregions, and C GPLLJs have greater geostrophic forcing (Holton mechanism) in the southern and northern GP. The results underscore the need to differentiate between C and UC GPLLJs in future seasonal forecast and climate prediction activities.« less
  2. In this paper, we show that solutions to ordinary differential equations describing the large-population limits of Markovian stochastic epidemic models can be interpreted as survival or cumulative hazard functions when analysing data on individuals sampled from the population. We refer to the individual-level survival and hazard functions derived from population-level equations as a survival dynamical system (SDS). To illustrate how population-level dynamics imply probability laws for individual-level infection and recovery times that can be used for statistical inference, we show numerical examples based on synthetic data. In these examples, we show that an SDS analysis compares favourably with a complete-data maximum-likelihood analysis. Finally, we use the SDS approach to analyse data from a 2009 influenza A(H1N1) outbreak at Washington State University.
  3. mmWave communication has been recognized as a highly promising technology for 5G wireless backhaul, which is capable of providing multi-gigabit per second transmission rates. However, in urban wireless backhaul environments, unforeseen events can cause short-term blockages or node failures and, therefore, network survivability is extremely important. In this paper, we investigate a novel relay-assisted mmWave backhaul network architecture, where a number of small-cell BSs and relays are deployed, e.g. on the lampposts of urban streets. Relays are used to provide multi-hop line-of-sight paths between small-cell BSs, which form logical links of the network. In this scenario, the interconnected logical links make up a mesh network, which offers opportunities for both link-level and network-level reconfiguration. We propose two joint link-network level reconfiguration schemes for recovery after exceptional events. One prioritizes relay path (link-level) reconfiguration and uses alternate network-level paths only if necessary. The other splits traffic on both reconfigured links and backup paths to improve network throughput. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed schemes significantly outperform purely link-level and purely network-level reconfiguration schemes. The proposed approaches are shown to not only maintain high network throughput but to also provide robust blockage/fault tolerance across a range of scenarios for urban mmWave backhaulmore »networks.« less