Abstract EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics‐based data‐driven solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geo‐effectiveness of the solar transients in terms of geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the auroral indices, that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geo‐effective CME events driven with the spheromak flux‐rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1–2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1–2 hr before the actual impact.
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Statistics of geomagnetic storms: Global simulations perspective
We present results of 131 geomagnetic storm simulations using the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework Geospace configuration. We compare the geomagnetic indices derived from the simulation with those observed, and use 2D cuts in the noon-midnight planes to compare the magnetopause locations with empirical models. We identify the location of the current sheet center and look at the plasma parameters to deduce tail dynamics. We show that the simulation produces geomagnetic index distributions similar to those observed, and that their relationship to the solar wind driver is similar to that observed. While the magnitudes of the Dst and polar cap potentials are close to those observed, the simulated AL index is consistently underestimated. Analysis of the magnetopause position reveals that the subsolar position agrees well with an empirical model, but that the tail flaring in the simulation is much smaller than that in the empirical model. The magnetotail and ring currents are closely correlated with the Dst index, and reveal a strong contribution of the tail current beyond 8 R E to the Dst index during the storm main phase.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2033563
- PAR ID:
- 10366214
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences
- Volume:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2296-987X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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