The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An Earth-directed CME can cause serious consequences to the human system. It can destroy power grids/pipelines, satellites, and communications. Therefore, accurately monitoring and predicting CMEs is important to minimize damages to the human system. In this study we propose an ensemble learning approach, named CMETNet, for predicting the arrival time of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. We collect and integrate eruptive events from two solar cycles, #23 and #24, from 1996 to 2021 with a total of 363 geoeffective CMEs. The data used for making predictions include CME features, solar wind parameters and CME images obtained from the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Our ensemble learning framework comprises regression algorithms for numerical data analysis and a convolutional neural network for image processing. Experimental results show that CMETNet performs better than existing machine learning methods reported in the literature, with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a mean absolute error of 9.75 h.
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A Study of Dimmings, CMEs, and Flares during the STEREO-SOHO Quadrature
During the
- Award ID(s):
- 1931062
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10367123
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 930
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 165
- Size(s):
- ["Article No. 165"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Solar filaments exist as stable structures for extended periods of time before many of them form the core of a coronal mass ejection (CME). We examine the properties of an erupting filament on 2017 May 29–30 with high-resolution He
i 10830 Å and Hα spectra from the Dunn Solar Telescope, full-disk Dopplergrams of Hei 10830 Å from the Chromospheric Telescope, and EUV and coronograph data from SDO and STEREO. Pre-eruption line-of-sight velocities from an inversion of Hei with the HAZEL code exhibit coherent patches of 5 Mm extent that indicate counter-streaming and/or buoyant behavior. During the eruption, individual, aligned threads appear in the Hei velocity maps. The distribution of velocities evolves from Gaussian to strongly asymmetric. The maximal optical depth of Hei 10830 Å decreased fromτ = 1.75 to 0.25, the temperature increased by 13 kK, and the average speed and width of the filament increased from 0 to 25 km s−1and 10 to 20 Mm, respectively. All data sources agree that the filament rose with an exponential acceleration reaching 7.4 m s−2that increased to a final velocity of 430 km s−1at 22:24 UT; a CME was associated with this filament eruption. The properties during the eruption favor a kink/torus instability, which requires the existence of a flux rope. We conclude that full-disk chromospheric Dopplergrams can be used to trace the initial phase of on-disk filament eruptions in real time, which might potentially be useful for modeling the source of any subsequent CMEs. -
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Abstract Geomagnetic storms are primarily driven by stream interaction regions (SIRs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Since SIR and CME storms have different solar wind and magnetic field characteristics, the magnetospheric response may vary accordingly. Using FAST/TEAMS data, we investigate the variation of ionospheric O+and H+outflow as a function of geomagnetic storm phase during SIR and CME magnetic storms. The effects of storm size and solar EUV flux, including solar cycle and seasonal effects, on storm time ionospheric outflow, are also investigated. The results show that for both CME and SIR storms, the O+and H+fluences peak during the main phase, and then declines in the recovery phase. However, for CME storms, there is also significant increase during the initial phase. Because the outflow starts during the initial phase in CME storms, there is time for the O+to reach the plasma sheet before the start of the main phase. Since plasma is convected into the ring current from the plasma sheet during the main phase, this may explain why more O+is observed in the ring current during CME storms than during SIR storms. We also find that outflow fluence is higher for intense storms than moderate storms and is higher during solar maximum than solar minimum.
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Abstract Emerging dimming occurs in isolated solar active regions (ARs) during the early stages of magnetic flux emergence. Observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, it features a rapid decrease in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) emission in the 171 Å channel images, and a simultaneous increase in the 211 Å images. Here, we analyze the coronal thermodynamic and magnetic properties to probe its physical origin. We calculate the time-dependent differential emission measures for a sample of 18 events between 2010 and 2012. The emission measure (EM) decrease in the temperature range is well correlated with the EM increase in over eight orders of magnitude. This suggests that the coronal plasma is being heated from the quiet-Sun, sub-MK temperature to 1–2 MK, more typical for ARs. Potential field extrapolation indicates significant change in the local magnetic connectivity: the dimming region is now linked to the newly emerged flux via longer loops. We conclude that emerging dimming is likely caused by coronal heating episodes, powered by reconnection between the emerging and the ambient magnetic fields.more » « less
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Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale structures of magnetized plasma that erupt from the corona into interplanetary space. The launch of Solar Orbiter (SolO) in 2020 enables in situ measurements of CMEs in the innermost heliosphere, at such distances where CMEs can be observed remotely within the inner field of view of heliospheric imagers (HIs). It thus provides the opportunity for investigations into the correspondence of the CME substructures measured in situ and observed remotely. We studied a CME that started on 2022 March 10 and was measured in situ by SolO at ∼0.44 au.Aims. Combining remote observations of CMEs from wide-angle imagers and in situ measurements in the innermost heliosphere allows us to compare CME properties derived through both techniques, validate the estimates, and better understand CME evolution, specifically the size and radial expansion, within 0.5 au.Methods. We compared the evolution of different CME substructures observed in images from the HIs on board the Ahead Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A) and the CME signatures measured in situ by SolO. The CME is found to possess a density enhancement at its rear edge in both remote and in situ observations, which validates the use of the signature of density enhancement following the CMEs to accurately identify the CME rear edge. We also estimated and compared the radial size and radial expansion speed of different substructures in both observations.Results. The evolution of the CME front and rear edges in remote images is consistent with the in situ CME measurements. The radial expansion (i.e., radial size and radial expansion speed) of the whole CME structure consisting of the magnetic ejecta and the sheath is consistent with the in situ estimates obtained at the same time from SolO. However, we do not find such consistencies for the magnetic ejecta region inside the CME because it is difficult to identify the magnetic ejecta edges in the remote images.
