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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to coastal communities along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to their extreme wind, rainfall and storm surge. Analyzing historical TC climatology and modeling TC hazards can provide valuable insight to planners and decision makers. However, detailed TC size information is typically only available from 1988 onward, preventing accurate wind, rainfall, and storm surge modeling for TCs occurring earlier in the historical record. To overcome temporally limited TC size data, we develop a database of size estimates that are based on reanalysis data and a physics‐based model. Specifically, we utilize ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate the TC outer size, and a physics‐based TC wind model to estimate the radius of maximum wind. We evaluate our TC size estimates using two high‐resolution wind data sets as well as Best Track information for a wide variety of TCs. Using the estimated size information plus the TC track and intensity, we reconstruct historical storm tides from 1950 to 2020 using a basin‐scale hydrodynamic model and show that our reconstructions agree well with observed peak storm tide and storm surge. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating an expanded set of historical modeled storm tides beginning in 1950 can enhance our understanding of US coastal hazard. Our newly developed database of TC sizes and associated storm tides/surges can aid in understanding North Atlantic TC climatology and modeling TC wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazard along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
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Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Models With Application to Storm Tide Simulations
Abstract The hazards induced by tropical cyclones (TCs), for example, high winds, extreme precipitation, and storm tides, are closely related to the TC surface wind field. Parametric models for TC surface wind distribution have been widely used for hazards and risk analysis due to their simplicity and efficiency in application. Here we revisit the parametric modeling of TC wind fields, including the symmetrical and asymmetrical components, and its applications in storm tide modeling in the North Atlantic. The asymmetrical wind field has been related to TC motion and vertical wind shear; however, we find that a simple and empirical background‐wind model, based solely on a rotation and scaling of the TC motion vector, can largely capture the observed surface wind asymmetry. The implicit inclusion of the wind shear effect can be understood with the climatological relationship between the general TC motion and wind shear directions during hurricane seasons. For the symmetric wind field, the widely used Holland wind profile is chosen as a benchmark model, and we find that a physics‐based complete wind profile model connecting the inner core and outer region performs superiorly compared to a wind analysis data set. When used as wind forcing for storm tide simulations, the physics‐based complete wind profile integrated with the background‐wind asymmetry model can reproduce the observed storm tides with lower errors than the often‐used Holland model coupled with a translation‐speed‐based method.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1652448
- PAR ID:
- 10372061
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 17
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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