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1. Changes in gray whale phenology and distribution related to prey variability and ocean biophysics in the northern Bering and eastern Chukchi seas

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0265934  

   Moore, Sue E. ; Clarke, Janet T. ; Okkonen, Stephen R. ; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M. ; Berchok, Catherine L. ; Stafford, Kathleen M. ( April 2022 , PLOS ONE)

   Ummenhofer, Caroline (Ed.)

   Changes in gray whale ( Eschrichtius robustus ) phenology and distribution are related to observed and hypothesized prey availability, bottom water temperature, salinity, sea ice persistence, integrated water column and sediment chlorophyll a , and patterns of wind-driven biophysical forcing in the northern Bering and eastern Chukchi seas. This portion of the Pacific Arctic includes four Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) sampling regions. In the Bering Strait area, passive acoustic data showed marked declines in gray whale calling activity coincident with unprecedented wintertime sea ice loss there in 2017–2019, although some whales were seen there during DBO cruises in those years. In the northern Bering Sea, sightings during DBO cruises show changes in gray whale distribution coincident with a shrinking field of infaunal amphipods, with a significant decrease in prey abundance (r = -0.314, p<0.05) observed in the DBO 2 region over the 2010–2019 period. In the eastern Chukchi Sea, sightings during broad scale aerial surveys show that gray whale distribution is associated with localized areas of high infaunal crustacean abundance. Although infaunal crustacean prey abundance was unchanged in DBO regions 3, 4 and 5, a mid-decade shift in gray whale distribution corresponded to both: (i) a localized increase in infaunal prey abundance in DBO regions 4 and 5, and (ii) a correlation of whale relative abundance with wind patterns that can influence epi-benthic and pelagic prey availability. Specifically, in the northeastern Chukchi Sea, increased sighting rates (whales/km) associated with an ~110 km (60 nm) offshore shift in distribution was positively correlated with large scale and local wind patterns conducive to increased availability of krill. In the southern Chukchi Sea, gray whale distribution clustered in all years near an amphipod-krill ‘hotspot’ associated with a 50-60m deep trough. We discuss potential impacts of observed and inferred prey shifts on gray whale nutrition in the context of an ongoing unusual gray whale mortality event. To conclude, we use the conceptual Arctic Marine Pulses (AMP) model to frame hypotheses that may guide future research on whales in the Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem. 

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2. Wildfire catalyzes upward range expansion of trembling aspen in southern Rocky Mountain beetle‐killed forests

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14302  

   Nigro, Katherine M. ; Rocca, Monique E. ; Battaglia, Mike A. ; Coop, Jonathan D. ; Redmond, Miranda D. ( December 2021 , Journal of Biogeography)

   Climate warming is expected to drive upward and poleward shifts at the leading edge of tree species ranges. Disturbance has the potential to accelerate these shifts by altering biotic and abiotic conditions, though this potential is likely to vary by disturbance type. In this study, we assessed whether recent wildfires and spruce beetle outbreaks promoted upward range expansion of trembling aspen.

   The San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado, USA (37°34′–37°50′N, 106°49′–107°21′W).

   Populus tremuloides.

   We used aerial imagery to determine the upper elevational limit of adult aspen and conducted seedling surveys at and above this upper limit in burned and unburned areas, which had already incurred high canopy mortality due to spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks. We compared characteristics of burned versus unburned bark beetle‐killed sites and assessed microsite conditions related to aspen seedling establishment using generalized linear models and interaction indices.

   Aspen seedling establishment occurred upslope of its previous range within burns, but not in unburned areas, despite severe beetle‐driven canopy mortality across all sites before the fire. Aspen seedling establishment was associated more with the light and mineral soil created by fire than the presence of nearby seed sources. Aspen seedlings were associated with nurse objects such as logs and rocks at the highest elevations, where these objects may ameliorate a range of stressors associated with the high elevation range boundary.

   Not all disturbance types are equal in promoting tree species migrations at the leading edge. Range shifts can be highly localized, and microsites are important for driving local range expansions in transitional environments. The mosaic of future disturbances across the landscape will drive forest compositional shifts, depending on the disturbance types and the species they promote.

    

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3. Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0386.1  

   Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward ; Roach, Lettie A. ; Donohoe, Aaron ; Ding, Qinghua ( February 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has slightly increased over the satellite observational period (1979 to the present) despite global warming. Several mechanisms have been invoked to explain this trend, such as changes in winds, precipitation, or ocean stratification, yet there is no widespread consensus. Additionally, fully coupled Earth system models run under historic and anthropogenic forcing generally fail to simulate positive SIE trends over this time period. In this work, we quantify the role of winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on sea ice trends and variability with an Earth system model run under historic and anthropogenic forcing that nudges winds over the polar regions and Southern Ocean SSTs north of the sea ice to observations from 1979 to 2018. Simulations with nudged winds alone capture the observed interannual variability in SIE and the observed long-term trends from the early 1990s onward, yet for the longer 1979–2018 period they simulate a negative SIE trend, in part due to faster-than-observed warming at the global and hemispheric scale in the model. Simulations with both nudged winds and SSTs show no significant SIE trends over 1979–2018, in agreement with observations. At the regional scale, simulated sea ice shows higher skill compared to the pan-Antarctic scale both in capturing trends and interannual variability in all nudged simulations. We additionally find negligible impact of the initial conditions in 1979 on long-term trends. 

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4. Chapter 5: Trends in the Physical and Chemical State of the Ocean

   Carlos Garcia-Soto ( October 2021 , The Second World Ocean Assessment)

   Keynote points • Thermal expansion from a warming ocean and land ice melt are the main causes of the accelerating global rise in the mean sea level. • Global warming is also affecting many circulation systems. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has already weakened and will most likely continue to do so in the future. The impacts of ocean circulation changes include a regional rise in sea levels, changes in the nutrient distribution and carbon uptake of the ocean and feedbacks with the atmosphere, such as altering the distribution of precipitation. • More than 90 per cent of the heat from global warming is stored in the global ocean. Oceans have exhibited robust warming since the 1950s from the surface to a depth of 2,000 m. The proportion of ocean heat content has more than doubled since the 1990s compared with long-term trends. Ocean warming can be seen in most of the global ocean, with a few regions exhibiting long-term cooling. • The ocean shows a marked pattern of salinity changes in multidecadal observations, with surface and subsurface patterns providing clear evidence of a water cycle amplification over the ocean. That is manifested in enhanced salinities in the near-surface, high-salinity subtropical regions and freshening in the low-salinity regions such as the West Pacific Warm Pool and the poles. • An increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, and a subsequent increase in carbon in the oceans, has changed the chemistry of the oceans to include changes to pH and aragonite saturation. A more carbon-enriched marine environment, especially when coupled with other environmental stressors, has been demonstrated through field studies and experiments to have negative impacts on a wide range of organisms, in particular those that form calcium carbonate shells, and alter biodiversity and ecosystem structure. • Decades of oxygen observations allow for robust trend analyses. Long-term measurements have shown decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations for most ocean regions and the expansion of oxygen-depleted zones. A temperature-driven solubility decrease is responsible for most near-surface oxygen loss, though oxygen decrease is not limited to the upper ocean and is present throughout the water column in many areas. • Total sea ice extent has been declining rapidly in the Arctic, but trends are insignificant in the Antarctic. In the Arctic, the summer trends are most striking in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, while, in the Antarctic, the summer trends show increases in the Weddell Sea and decreases in the West Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean. Variations in sea ice extent result from changes in wind and ocean currents. 

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5. Response of diatom communities to climate and human disturbance: A 4200-year record from Costa Rica

   https://doi.org/10.1177/09596836231197775  

   Bitting, Madeleine ; Johanson, Erik N ; Haberyan, Kurt A ; Horn, Sally P ( December 2023 , The Holocene)

   This study integrates diatom analysis with existing records of pollen, charcoal, elemental composition, and stable light isotopes to expand upon the 4200-year history of human activity and climate change from Laguna Los Mangos in southern Pacific Costa Rica. We counted diatoms in peroxide-treated samples and analyzed community composition using cluster analysis, revealing four distinct assemblage zones with diatom variability most closely correlated with phosphorus, titanium, and organic content. The earliest assemblage (Zone D, 4150–3430 cal yr BP) was dominated by Encyonema silesiacum and Nitzschia incognita and aligned with a period of deforestation, erosion, and abundant macrophytes. Gomphonema affine proliferated in Zone C (3430–2450 cal yr BP), reflecting increased pH and productivity likely caused by agriculture-induced nutrient loading. We attributed the preservation gap from 3290 to 2970 cal yr BP in Zone C to silica depletion and erosional deposition that induced decline in diatom abundance by diluting valve concentrations in lake sediments. Nitzschia incognita and G. affine became the dominant taxa in Zone B (2450–1400 cal yr BP), likely reflecting eutrophy, increasing conductivity, and drying climate. Dominance of Diadesmis confervacea indicated reduced lake level in Zone A (1400 cal yr BP–modern) at the onset of the Terminal Classic Drought (TCD). A hiatus in the record indicates lake desiccation from 950 to 450 cal yr BP. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), diatoms reflect conditions similar to Zone B indicating increased lake level, circumneutral pH, and eutrophy. Refilling of the lake indicates increased precipitation during the LIA despite evidence of severe regional drought reported at other sites. Variable precipitation during this period likely resulted from the combined effects of Spanish contact, agricultural collapse, forest recovery, and shifts in Atlantic and Pacific climate forcing mechanisms. Overall, the Los Mangos diatom record reflects shallow, slightly alkaline, eutrophic conditions influenced by nutrient enrichment, erosion, and deforestation associated with maize agriculture.

    

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