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Title: Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 Post Caldera‐Forming Eruption Have Been Anticipated?
Abstract In 2018 Kı̄lauea volcano erupted a decade's worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kı̄lauea re‐erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ∼20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ∼17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ∼1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11–12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of Global Positioning System data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40%–88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2040425
PAR ID:
10372516
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
49
Issue:
15
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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