skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Spatial patterns of discovery points and invasion hotspots of non‐native forest pests
Abstract AimEstablishments of non‐native forest pests (insects and pathogens) continue to increase worldwide with growing numbers of introductions and changes in invasion pathways. Quantifying spatio‐temporal patterns in establishment locations and subsequent invasion dynamics can provide insight into the underlying mechanisms driving invasions and assist biosecurity agencies with prioritizing areas for proactive surveillance and management. LocationUnited States of America. Time period1794–2018. Major taxa studiedInsecta, plant pathogens. MethodsUsing locations of first discovery and county‐level occurrence data for 101 non‐native pests across the contiguous USA, we (a) quantified spatial patterns in discovery points and county‐level species richness with spatial point process models and spatial hotspot analyses, respectively, and (b) identified potential proxies for propagule pressure (e.g., human population density) associated with these observed patterns. ResultsDiscovery points were highly aggregated in space and located in areas with high densities of ports and roads. Although concentrated in the north‐eastern USA, discovery points also occurred farther west and became less aggregated as time progressed. Invasion hotspots were more common in the north‐east. Geographic patterns of discovery points and hotspots varied substantially among pest origins (i.e., global region of pests’ native ranges) and pest feeding guilds. Significant variation in invasion richness was attributed to the patterns of first discovery locations. Data and shapefiles comprising analyses are provided. Main conclusionsUse of spatial point pattern analyses provided a quantitative characterization of the central role of human activities in establishment of non‐native pests. Moreover, the decreased aggregation of discovery points through time suggests that invasion pathways to certain areas in the USA have either been created or intensified by human activities. Overall, our results suggest that spatio‐temporal variability in the intensity of invasion pathways has resulted in marked geographic patterns of establishment and contributed to current macroscale patterns of pest invasion in the USA.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1638702
PAR ID:
10372696
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley-Blackwell
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Global Ecology and Biogeography
Volume:
28
Issue:
12
ISSN:
1466-822X
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 1749-1762
Size(s):
p. 1749-1762
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The influences of human and physical factors on species invasions have been extensively examined by ecologists across many regions. However, how habitat fragmentation per se may affect forest insect and disease invasion has not been well studied, especially the related patterns over regional or subcontinental scales. Here, using national survey data on forest pest richness and fragmentation data across United States forest ecosystems, we examine how forest fragmentation and edge types (neighboring land cover) may affect pest richness at the county level. Our results show that habitat fragmentation and edge types both affected pest richness. In general, specialist insects and pathogens were more sensitive to fragmentation and edge types than generalists, while pathogens were much less sensitive to fragmentation and edge types than insect pests. Most importantly, the developed land edge type contributed the most to the richness of nonnative insects and diseases, whether measured by the combination of all pest species or by separate guilds or species groups (i.e., generalists vs. specialists, insects vs. pathogens). This observation may largely reflect anthropogenic effects, including propagule pressure associated with human activities. These results shed new insights into the patterns of forest pest invasions, and it may have significant implications for forest restoration and management. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract Non‐native plant pests and pathogens threaten biodiversity, ecosystem function, food security, and economic livelihoods. As new invasive populations establish, often as an unintended consequence of international trade, they can become additional sources of introductions, accelerating global spread through bridgehead effects. While the study of non‐native pest spread has used computational models to provide insights into drivers and dynamics of biological invasions and inform management, efforts have focused on local or regional scales and are challenged by complex transmission networks arising from bridgehead population establishment. This paper presents a flexible spatiotemporal stochastic network model called PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread) Global that couples international trade networks with core drivers of biological invasions—climate suitability, host availability, and propagule pressure—quantified through open, globally available databases to forecast the spread of non‐native plant pests. The modular design of the framework makes it adaptable for various pests capable of dispersing via human‐mediated pathways, supports proactive responses to emerging pests when limited data are available, and enables forecasts at different spatial and temporal resolutions. We demonstrate the framework using a case study of the invasive planthopper spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula). The model was calibrated with historical, known spotted lanternfly introductions to identify potential bridgehead populations that may contribute to global spread. This global view of phytosanitary pandemics provides crucial information for anticipating biological invasions, quantifying transport pathways risk levels, and allocating resources to safeguard plant health, agriculture, and natural resources. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract AimWe investigate geographic patterns across taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity to test for spatial (in)congruency and identify aggregate diversity hotspots in relationship to present land use and future climate. Simulating extinctions of imperilled species, we demonstrate where losses across diversity dimensions and geography are predicted. LocationNorth America. Time periodPresent day, future. Major taxa studiedRodentia. MethodsUsing geographic range maps for rodent species, we quantified spatial patterns for 11 dimensions of diversity: taxonomic (species, range weighted), ecological (body size, diet and habitat), phylogenetic (mean, variance, and nearest‐neighbour patristic distances, phylogenetic distance and genus‐to‐species ratio) and phyloendemism. We tested for correlations across dimensions and used spatial residual analyses to illustrate regions of pronounced diversity. We aggregated diversity hotspots in relationship to predictions of land‐use and climate change and recalculated metrics following extinctions of IUCN‐listed imperilled species. ResultsTopographically complex western North America hosts high diversity across multiple dimensions: phyloendemism and ecological diversity exceed predictions based on taxonomic richness, and phylogenetic variance patterns indicate steep gradients in phylogenetic turnover. An aggregate diversity hotspot emerges in the west, whereas spatial incongruence exists across diversity dimensions at the continental scale. Notably, phylogenetic metrics are uncorrelated with ecological diversity. Diversity hotspots overlap with land‐use and climate change, and extinctions predicted by IUCN status are unevenly distributed across space, phylogeny or ecological groups. Main conclusionsComparison of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity patterns for North American rodents clearly shows the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. Testing for geographic patterns and (in)congruency across dimensions of diversity facilitates investigation into underlying ecological and evolutionary processes. The geographic scope of this analysis suggests that several explicit regional challenges face North American rodent fauna in the future. Simultaneous consideration of multi‐dimensional biodiversity allows us to assess what critical functions or evolutionary history we might lose with future extinctions and maximize the potential of our conservation efforts. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract AimAlternative hypotheses of Darwin's Naturalization Conundrum (DNC) predict that the non‐native species that successfully establish within a community are those either more closely or more distantly related to the resident native species. Despite the increasing number of studies using phylogenetic data to testDNCand evaluate community assembly, it remains unknown whether phylogenetic relationships alone can be used to predict invasion susceptibility across communities differing environmentally and in disturbance history. In this study, we evaluate whether phylogenetic structure of diverse native communities predicts the occurrence of non‐native species and offers insight into community assembly. LocationEastern United States of America. MethodsWe examine multiple communities across a north–south transect of the eastern United States to test whether non‐native species richness and abundance are associated with phylogenetic diversity measures of the native community. We also test whether non‐native species are consistently closely or distantly related to native species using two approaches differing in phylogenetic scale and whether this differs with ecologically successful species. ResultsOur analyses did not unambiguously resolveDNC. Non‐native species richness and abundance decreased with increasing native species phylogenetic diversity. Within some communities, non‐native species were significantly more closely related to native species than expected by chance, and tended to be more often closely related to a native species than that native species was to other native relatives. When considering species abundance, only one community showed that ecologically successful non‐native species were closely related to resident species. Main conclusionsPhylogenetic relationships can reveal important details about community assembly in diverse ecological settings. However, given the multifaceted nature of community assembly, phylogenetic metrics alone have limited utility as a general predictive tool for community invasion. Our study highlights a need to incorporate additional types of data to better understand why some communities are more susceptible to non‐native species establishment. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Invasive species science has focused heavily on the invasive agent. However, management to protect native species also requires a proactive approach focused on resident communities and the features affecting their vulnerability to invasion impacts. Vulnerability is likely the result of factors acting across spatial scales, from local to regional, and it is the combined effects of these factors that will determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Here, we introduce an analytical framework that quantifies the scale‐dependent impact of biological invasions on native richness from the shape of the native species–area relationship (SAR). We leveraged newly available, biogeographically extensive vegetation data from the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network to assess plant community vulnerability to invasion impact as a function of factors acting across scales. We analyzed more than 1000 SARs widely distributed across the USA along environmental gradients and under different levels of non‐native plant cover. Decreases in native richness were consistently associated with non‐native species cover, but native richness was compromised only at relatively high levels of non‐native cover. After accounting for variation in baseline ecosystem diversity, net primary productivity, and human modification, ecoregions that were colder and wetter were most vulnerable to losses of native plant species at the local level, while warmer and wetter areas were most susceptible at the landscape level. We also document how the combined effects of cross‐scale factors result in a heterogeneous spatial pattern of vulnerability. This pattern could not be predicted by analyses at any single scale, underscoring the importance of accounting for factors acting across scales. Simultaneously assessing differences in vulnerability between distinct plant communities at local, landscape, and regional scales provided outputs that can be used to inform policy and management aimed at reducing vulnerability to the impact of plant invasions. 
    more » « less