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1. Biogeomorphic modeling to assess the resilience of tidal-marsh restoration to sea level rise and sediment supply

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-531-2022  

   Gourgue, Olivier ; van Belzen, Jim ; Schwarz, Christian ; Vandenbruwaene, Wouter ; Vanlede, Joris ; Belliard, Jean-Philippe ; Fagherazzi, Sergio ; Bouma, Tjeerd J. ; van de Koppel, Johan ; Temmerman, Stijn ( January 2022 , Earth Surface Dynamics)

   Abstract. There is an increasing demand for the creation and restoration of tidal marshes around the world, as they provide highly valued ecosystem services. Yet restored tidal marshes are strongly vulnerable to factors such as sea level rise and declining sediment supply. How fast the restored ecosystemdevelops, how resilient it is to sea level rise, and how this can be steered by restoration design are key questions that are typically challenging to assess due to the complex biogeomorphic feedback processes involved. In this paper, we apply a biogeomorphic model to a specific tidal-marsh restoration project planned by dike breaching. Our modeling approach integrates tidal hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics, accounting for relevant fine-scale flow–vegetation interactions (less than 1 m2) and their impact on vegetation and landform development at the landscape scale (several km2) and in the long term (several decades). Our model performance is positively evaluated against observations of vegetation and geomorphic development in adjacent tidal marshes. Model scenarios demonstrate that the restored tidal marsh can keep pace with realistic rates of sea level rise and that its resilience is more sensitive to the availability of suspended sediments than to the rate of sea level rise. We further demonstrate that restoration design options can steer marsh resilience, as they affect the rates and spatial patterns of biogeomorphic development. By varying the width of two dike breaches, which serve as tidal inlets to the restored marsh, we show that a larger difference in the width of the two inlets leads to higher biogeomorphic diversity in restored habitats. This study showcases that biogeomorphic modeling can support management choices in restoration design to optimize tidal-marsh development towards sustainable restoration goals. 

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2. Empirical observations and numerical modelling of tides, channel morphology, and vegetative effects on accretion in a restored tidal marsh

   https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4646  

   Fleri, Jesse R. ; Lera, Sara ; Gerevini, Alessandro ; Staver, Lorie ; Nardin, William ( July 2019 , Earth Surface Processes and Landforms)

   Tidal marshes form at the confluence between estuarine and marine environments where tidal movement regulates their developmental processes. Here, we investigate how the interplay between tides, channel morphology, and vegetation affect sediment dynamics in a low energy tidal marsh at the Paul S. Sarbanes Ecosystem Restoration Project at Poplar Island. Poplar Island is an active restoration site where fine‐grained material dredged from navigation channels in the upper Chesapeake Bay are being used to restore remote tidal marsh habitat toward the middle bay (Maryland, USA). Tidal currents were measured over multiple tidal cycles in the inlets and tidal creeks of one marsh at Poplar Island, Cell 1B, using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) to estimate water fluxes throughout the marsh complex. Sediment fluxes were estimated using acoustic backscatter recorded by ADCPs and validated against total suspended solid measurements taken on site. A high‐resolution geomorphic survey was conducted to capture channel cross sections and tidal marsh morphology. We integrated simple numerical models built in Delft3d with empirical observations to identify which eco‐geomorphological factors influence sediment distribution in various channel configurations with differing vegetative characteristics. Channel morphology influences flood‐ebb dominance in marshes, where deep, narrow channels promote high tidal velocities and incision, increasing sediment suspension and reducing resilience in marshes at Poplar Island. Our numerical models suggest that accurately modelling plant phenology is vital for estimating sediment accretion rates. In‐situ observations indicate that Poplar Island marshes are experiencing erosion typical for many Chesapeake Bay islands. Peak periods of sediment suspension frequently coincide with the largest outflows of water during ebb tides resulting in large sediment deficits. Ebb dominance (net sediment export) in tidal marshes is likely amplified by sea‐level rise and may lower marsh resilience. We couple field observations with numerical models to understand how tidal marsh morphodynamics contribute to marsh resilience. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    

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3. Elevation Changes in Restored Marshes at Poplar Island, Chesapeake Bay, MD: II. Modeling the Importance of Marsh Development Time

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-024-01342-x  

   Morris, James T. ; Staver, Lorie W. ( April 2024 , Estuaries and Coasts)

   Tidal marshes in the Chesapeake Bay are vulnerable to the accelerating rate of sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. Restored and created marshes face the same risks as natural marshes, and their resilience to SLR may depend upon appropriate design and implementation. Here, the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) was used to assess the resilience of tidal marshes at the Paul S. Sarbanes Ecosystem Restoration Project at Poplar Island (PI) in mid-Chesapeake Bay, MD, where dredged material from navigation channels is being used to create new tidal marshes planted withSpartina alterniflorain the low marsh andS. patensin the high marsh. The site is microtidal with low inorganic sediment inputs, where the rate of marsh elevation change is dominated by the production of organic matter and, therefore, is proportional to net ecosystem production (NEP). The model demonstrated the importance of marsh development for surface elevation gain. In created marshes, the buildout of belowground biomass adds volume and results in faster growth of marsh elevation, but the gains slow as the marsh matures. Elevation gain is the lessor of the recalcitrant fraction of NEP sequestered in sediment or the rate of increase in accommodation space. Marshes can keep up with and fill accommodation space with sequestered NEP up to a tipping point determined by the rate of SLR. The PI low marsh platform was forecasted to drown in about 43 years after construction at the current rate of SLR. Marsh loss can be mitigated by periodic thin layer placement (TLP) of sediment. CWEM was used to simulate PI marsh responses to different TLP strategies and showed that there is an optimal design that will maximize carbon sequestration and resilience depending on the trajectory of mean sea level.

    

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4. Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4467  

   Rolando, J. L. ; Hodges, M. ; Garcia, K. D. ; Krueger, G. ; Williams, N. ; Carr, Jr., J. ; Robinson, J. ; George, A. ; Morris, J. ; Kostka, J. E. ( April 2023 , Ecosphere)

   The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has increased over the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh ecosystems impacted by sudden vegetation dieback events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. In this study, we used a 13‐year collection of remotely sensed imagery to provide evidence that approximately 14% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10 years after a dieback event in Charleston, SC. Dieback onset coincided with a severe drought in 2012, as indicated by the Palmer drought stress index. A second dieback event occurred in 2016 after a historic flood influenced by Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Unvegetated zones reached nearly 30% of the total marsh area in 2017. We used a light detection and ranging‐derived digital elevation model to determine that most affected areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Further, restoration by grass planting was effective, with pilot‐scale restored plots having greater aboveground biomass than reference sites after two years of transplanting. A positive outcome indicated that the stressors that caused the dieback are no longer present. Despite that, many affected areas have not recovered naturally, even though they are located within the typical elevation range of healthy marshes. A mechanistic modeling approach was used to assess the effects of vegetation dieback on salt marsh resilience to SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m⁻² year⁻¹) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm in 100 years, whereas a nonrestored mudflat would lose all its elevation capital after 100 years. Thus, rapid restoration of marsh dieback is critical to avoid further degradation. Also, failure to incorporate the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events that trigger irreversible marsh diebacks underestimates salt marsh vulnerability to climate change. Finally, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm in 100 years, which is most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, climate change mitigation actions are also urgently needed to preserve present‐day marsh ecosystems.

    

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5. Ribbed mussel Geukensia demissa population response to living shoreline design and ecosystem development

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3402  

   Bilkovic, Donna Marie ; Isdell, Robert E. ; Guthrie, Amanda G. ; Mitchell, Molly M. ; Chambers, Randolph M. ( March 2021 , Ecosphere)

   Coastal communities increasingly invest in natural and nature‐based features (e.g., living shorelines) as a strategy to protect shorelines and enhance coastal resilience. Tidal marshes are a common component of these strategies because of their capacity to reduce wave energy and storm surge impacts. Performance metrics of restoration success for living shorelines tend to focus on how the physical structure of the created marsh enhances shoreline protection via proper elevation and marsh plant presence. These metrics do not fully evaluate the level of marsh ecosystem development. In particular, the presence of key marsh bivalve species can indicate the capability of the marsh to provide non‐protective services of value, such as water quality improvement and habitat provision. We observed an unexpected low to no abundance of the filter‐feeding ribbed mussel,Geukensia demissa, in living shoreline marshes throughout Chesapeake Bay. In salt marsh ecosystems along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, ribbed mussels improve water quality, enhance nutrient removal, stabilize the marsh, and facilitate long‐term sustainability of the habitat. Through comparative field surveys and experiments within a chronosequence of 13 living shorelines spanning 2–16 years since construction, we examined three factors we hypothesized may influence recruitment of ribbed mussels to living shoreline marshes: (1) larval access to suitable marsh habitat, (2) sediment quality of low marsh (i.e., potential mussel habitat), and (3) availability of high‐quality refuge habitat. Our findings suggest that at most sites larval mussels are able to access and settle on living shoreline created marshes behind rock sill structures, but that most recruits are likely not surviving. Sediment organic matter (OM) and plant density were correlated with mussel abundance, and sediment OM increased with marsh age, suggesting that living shoreline design (e.g., sand fill, planting grids) and lags in ecosystem development (sediment properties) are reducing the survival of the young recruits. We offer potential modifications to living shoreline design and implementation practices that may facilitate self‐sustaining ribbed mussel populations in these restored habitats.

    

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