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Abstract Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes and feedbacks triggered by sea-ice loss are critical to explain the magnitude and seasonality of Arctic amplification. Tropospheric responses to Arctic sea-ice loss that are robust across models and separable from internal variability have been revealed, including local warming and moistening, equatorward shifts of the jet stream and storm track in the North Atlantic, and fewer and milder cold extremes over North America. Whilst generally small compared to simulated internal variability, the response to Arctic sea-ice loss comprises a non-negligible contribution to projected climate change. For example, Arctic sea-ice loss is essential to explain projected North Atlantic jet trends and their uncertainty. Model diversity in the simulated responses has provided pathways to observationally constrain the real-world response.
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Atmospheric River Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project
Abstract The atmospheric river (AR) response to Arctic sea ice loss in the Northern hemisphere winter is investigated using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Results have shown that the midlatitude responses are dominated by dynamic effects. Poleward of around, the dynamic and thermodynamic effects cancel each other, resulting in relatively small responses. The response uncertainty can be characterized by leading uncertainty modes, with the responses over the Pacific and Atlantic projecting onto the northeastward extension and equatorward shift mode, respectively. In addition, the responses seem to be mean state‐dependent: under the same forcing, models with more poleward‐located climatological ARs tend to show stronger equatorward shifts over the Atlantic; over the Pacific, models with more westward‐located climatological AR core tend to show stronger northeastward extensions. These relationships highlight the importance of improving the AR climatology representation on reducing the response uncertainty to Arctic sea ice loss.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1832842
- PAR ID:
- 10375117
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 20
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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