Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.
Surface soil moisture (SSM) has been identified as a key climate variable governing hydrologic and atmospheric processes across multiple spatial scales at local, regional, and global levels. The global burgeoning of SSM datasets in the past decade holds a significant potential in improving our understanding of multiscale SSM dynamics. The primary issues that hinder the fusion of SSM data from disparate instruments are (1) different spatial resolutions of the data instruments, (2) inherent spatial variability in SSM caused due to atmospheric and land surface controls, and (3) measurement errors caused due to imperfect retrievals of instruments. We present a data fusion scheme which takes all the above three factors into account using a Bayesian spatial hierarchical model (SHM), combining a geostatistical approach with a hierarchical model. The applicability of the fusion scheme is demonstrated by fusing point, airborne, and satellite data for a watershed exhibiting high spatial variability in Manitoba, Canada. We demonstrate that the proposed data fusion scheme is adept at assimilating and predicting SSM distribution across all three scales while accounting for potential measurement errors caused due to imperfect retrievals. Further validation of the algorithm is required in different hydroclimates and surface heterogeneity as well as for other data platforms for wider applicability.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10375641
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 10443-10465
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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