The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900e1300 AD) was the most recent period of pre-industrial climatic warming in the northern hemisphere, and thus estimations of MCA signals can illuminate possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Current high-resolution MCA climate signals are restricted to mid- and high-latitude regions, which confounds inferences of how the MCA impacted some global/hemispheric climate mechanisms (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation; NAO). To address this knowledge gap, we estimate seasonally-resolved sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the oxygen isotope composition (d18O) of serially sampled Phorcus atratus shells from archaeological sites spanning the MCA in the Canary Islands. Twelve archaeological and six modern P. atratus shells were analyzed, and archaeological shells were dated using carbonate-target radiocarbon dating. SSTs were estimated using the published aragonite-water equilibrium fractionation equation. Modern shells showed a mean SST of 20.0 ± 1.5 C, with a seasonal amplitude of 5.3 ± 0.9 C. Archaeological shells exhibited a mean SST of 18.2 ± 0.7 C, with a mean seasonal amplitude of 5.5 ± 1.0 C. Thus, shells that span the MCA in the Canary Islands recorded SSTs that were significantly cooler than the modern (P < .05), contrasting with warming estimates and model predictions elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. We propose that the observed cooling resulted from increased upwelling in NW Africa due to a strengthening of the prevailing westerlies and coastal winds along the African shoreline. The intensified upwelling scenario during the MCA is partially supported by in-situ carbon isotope data (d13C) retrieved from the archaeological shells, which was compared to the d13C values of modern shells and dissolved inorganic carbon in the ambient seawater. These results are consistent with other low-latitude temperature/precipitation anomalies associated with a positive NAO mode, suggesting a transition to a positive NAO index during the middle and late MCA that possibly extended later into the 13th century AD.
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Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future upwelling changes. The Southern Hemisphere upwelling systems show a future strengthening in coastal winds with a rapid coastal warming, whereas the Northern Hemisphere coastal winds show a decrease with a comparable warming trend. The Bakun mechanism cannot explain these changes. Heat budget analysis indicates that temperature change in the upwelling region is not simply controlled by vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced by horizontal heat advection driven by strong near-coast wind stress curl that is neglected in the Bakun hypothesis and poorly represented by the low-resolution models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The high-resolution climate simulations also reveal a strong spatial variation in future upwelling changes, which is missing in the low-resolution simulations.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10392433
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2662-4435
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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