In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020–2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is studied via the standardized both all-cause and cause-specific mortality scores before and during the epidemic. The excess mortality counts during the pandemic were predicted based on historic data using parametric and nonparametric modeling and then compared with the actual reported counts to quantify the excess. The corresponding standardized mortality
Excess mortality in Belarus during the COVID-19 pandemic as the case study of a country with limited non-pharmaceutical interventions and limited reporting
Abstract Public health intervention to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic significantly differed by country since the SARS-CoV-2 spread varied regionally in time and in scale. Since vaccinations were not available until the end of 2020 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained the only strategies to mitigate the pandemic spread at that time. Belarus in Europe is one of a few countries with a high Human Development Index where no lockdowns have ever been implemented and only limited NPIs have taken place for a period of time. Therefore, the Belarusian case was evaluated and compared in terms of the mortality burden. Since the COVID-19 mortality was low, the excess overall mortality was studied for Belarus. Since no overall mortality data have been reported past June 2020 the analysis was complemented by the study of Google Trends funeral-related search queries up until August 2021. Depending on the model, the Belarusian mortality for June of 2020 was 29 to 39% higher than otherwise expected with the corresponding estimated excess death was from 2953 to 3690 while the reported COVID-19 mortality for June 2020 was only 157 cases. The Belarusian excess mortality for June 2020 was higher than for all neighboring countries with an excess of 5% for Poland, 5% for Ukraine, 8% for Russia, 11% for Lithuania and 11% for Latvia. The relationship between Google Trends and mortality time series was studied using Granger’s test and the results were statistically significant. The results for Google Trends searches did vary by key phrase with the largest excess of 138% for April 2020 and 148% for September 2020 was observed for a key phrase “coffin”, while the largest excess of 218% for January 2021 was observed for “funeral services”. In summary, there are indications of the excess overall mortality in Belarus, which is larger than the reported COVID-19-related mortality.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2047828
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10395447
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract P -score metrics were also compared with the neighboring countries. In summary, there were three “waves” of excess all-cause mortality in Ukraine in December 2020, April 2021 and November 2021 with excess of 32%, 43% and 83% above the expected mortality. Each new “wave” of the all-cause mortality was higher than the previous one and the mortality “peaks” corresponded in time to three “waves” of lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality constituted 9% to 24% of the all-cause mortality during those three peak months. Overall, the mortality trends in Ukraine over time were similar to neighboring countries where vaccination coverage was similar to that in Ukraine. For cause-specific mortality, the excess observed was due to pneumonia as well as circulatory system disease categories that peaked at the same times as the all-cause and lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality, which was expected. The pneumonias as well as circulatory system disease categories constituted the majority of all cases during those peak times. The seasonality in mortality due to the infectious and parasitic disease category became less pronounced during the pandemic. While the reported numbers were always relatively low, alcohol-related mortality also declined during the pandemic. -
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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused devastating public health, economic, political, and societal crises. We performed a comparison study of COVID-19 outbreaks in states with Republican governors versus states with Democratic governors in the United States between April 2020 and February 2021. This research study shows that 1) states with Democratic governors had tested more people for COVID-19 and have higher testing rates than those with Republican governors; 2) states with Democratic governors had more confirmed cases for COVID-19 from April 12 until the end of July 2020, as well as from early December 2020 to February 22 2021, and had higher test positivity rates from April 12 until late June 2020, and the states with Republican governors had more confirmed cases from August to early December 2020 and had higher test positivity rates since late June 2020; 3) states with Democratic governors had more deaths for COVID-19 and higher mortality rates than those with Republican governors; 4) more people recovered in states with Democratic governors until early July 2020, while the recovery rate of states with Republican governors is similar to that of states with Democratic governors in May 2020 and higher than that of states with Democratic governors in April 2020 and between June 2020 to February 22 2021. We conclude that our data suggest that states with Republican governors controlled COVID-19 better as they had lower mortality rates and similar or higher recovery rates. States with Democratic governors first had higher test positivity rates until late June 2020 but had lower test positivity rates after July 2020. As of February 2021, the pandemic was still spreading as the daily numbers of confirmed cases and deaths were still high, although the test positivity and mortality rates started to stabilize in spring 2021. This study provides a direct description for the status and performance of handling COVID-19 in the states with Republican governors versus states with Democratic governors, and provides insights for future research, policy making, resource distribution, and administration.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09345-z
