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Abstract The North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and Greenlandic communities. To provide insights into the potential changes of this region as global temperatures rise, we investigated the sea ice and physical and biological oceanic responses of the NOW to low (2°C) and high (>3.5°C) levels of warming using the Community Earth System Model, version 1. As global temperatures increase, sea ice production decreases, spring open water area increases, and summer open water areas in the NOW region connect with open water in central Baffin Bay earlier in the melt season. These sea ice changes contribute to increased stratification, which in turn leads to increased concentrations of nutrient-rich West Greenland Irminger Waters at depth while decreasing surface nutrient concentrations. At low warming levels in the eastern NOW region, warmer water temperatures increase phytoplankton growth rates despite the decrease in surface nutrients, leading to an increase in peak primary production relative to the historical period. In contrast, for high warming in both the eastern and western NOW regions, biological primary production decreases, despite the warmer water temperatures, because increased stratification and decreased surface nutrient concentrations limit phytoplankton production. For all assessed warming levels, changing phytoplankton community composition drives a loss of ecosystem productivity at higher trophic levels. Internal variability plays a negligible role in driving these future sea ice and ocean changes, highlighting the importance of limiting further global temperature increases to avoid large changes to the NOW ecosystem. Significance StatementThe North Water Polynya (NOW) is one of the most productive biological regions in the Arctic with high importance to Inuit and Greenlandic communities. In this paper, we explore how sea ice and physical and biological ocean conditions will change under low (2°C) and high (>3.5°C) levels of global warming.
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Changing Biogeochemistry of the Arctic Ocean: Surface Nutrient and CO2 Cycling in a Warming, Melting North
The physical system of the Arctic is changing in profound ways, with implications for the transport of nutrients to and from the Arctic Ocean as well as the internal cycling of material on shelves and in deep basins. Significant increases in Arctic Ocean primary production have been observed in the last two decades, potentially driven by enhancements to a suite of mechanisms that increase nutrient availability to upper ocean waters, including transport from adjacent subpolar regions, storm-induced mixing, and mobilization of nutrients from terrestrial pools. The relative strength of these mechanisms varies substantially within Arctic Ocean subregions, leading to a mosaic of biogeochemical responses. Changes in primary production are also driving regional changes in the biologically mediated air-sea exchange of CO2, while warming, enhanced stratification, and increased mobilization of carbon from terrestrial pools are also driving regionally variable trends.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1949593
- PAR ID:
- 10397327
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Oceanography
- ISSN:
- 1042-8275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.120
