The expansion of shrubs across the Arctic tundra may fundamentally modify land–atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub expansion pattern is linked with key environmental drivers, such as climate change and fire disturbance. Here we used 40+ years of high‐resolution (~1.0 m) aerial and satellite imagery to estimate shrub‐cover change in 114 study sites across four burned and unburned upland (ice‐poor) and lowland (ice‐rich) tundra ecosystems in northern Alaska. Validated with data from four additional upland and lowland tundra fires, our results reveal that summer precipitation was the most important climatic driver (
Drivers of historical and projected changes in diverse boreal ecosystems: fires, thermokarst, riverine dynamics, and humans
Abstract Alaska has diverse boreal ecosystems across heterogeneous landscapes driven by a wide range of biological and geomorphic processes associated with disturbance and successional patterns under a changing climate. To assess historical patterns and rates of change, we quantified the areal extent of ecotypes and the biophysical factors driving change through photo-interpretation of 2200 points on a time-series (∼1949, ∼1978, ∼2007, ∼2017) of geo-rectified imagery for 22 grids across central Alaska. Overall, 68.6% of the area had changes in ecotypes over ∼68 years. Most of the change resulted from increases in upland and lowland forest types, with an accompanying decrease in upland and lowland scrub types, as post-fire succession led to mid- and late-successional stages. Of 17 drivers of landscape change, fire was by far the largest, affecting 46.5% of the region overall from 1949 to 2017. Fire was notably more extensive in the early 1900s. Thermokarst nearly doubled from 3.9% in 1949 to 6.3% in 2017. Riverine ecotypes covered 7.8% area and showed dynamic changes related to channel migration and succession. Using past rates of ecotype transitions, we developed four state-transition models to project future ecotype extent based on historical rates, increasing temperatures, and driver associations. Ecotype changes from 2017 to 2100, nearly tripled for the driver-adjusted RCP6.0 temperature model (30.6%) compared to the historical rate model (11.5%), and the RCP4.5 (12.4%) and RCP8.0 (14.7%) temperature models. The historical-rate model projected 38 ecotypes will gain area and 24 will lose area by 2100. Overall, disturbance and recovery associated with a wide range of drivers across the patchy mosaic of differing aged ecotypes led to a fairly stable overall composition of most ecotypes over long intervals, although fire caused large temporal fluctuations for many ecotypes. Thermokarst, however, is accelerating and projected to have increasingly transformative effects on future ecotype distributions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1636476
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10399373
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 045016
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Permafrost formation and degradation creates a highly patchy mosaic of boreal peatland ecosystems in Alaska driven by climate, fire, and ecological changes. To assess the biophysical factors affecting permafrost dynamics, we monitored permafrost and ecological conditions in central Alaska from 2005 to 2021 by measuring weather, land cover, topography, thaw depths, hydrology, soil properties, soil thermal regimes, and vegetation cover between burned (1990 fire) and unburned terrain. Climate data show large variations among years with occasional, extremely warm–wet summers and cold–snowless winters that affect permafrost stability. Microtopography and thaw depth surveys revealed both permafrost degradation and aggradation. Thaw depths were deeper in post-fire scrub compared to unburned black spruce and increased moderately during the last year, but analysis of historical imagery (1954–2019) revealed no increase in thermokarst rates due to fire. Recent permafrost formation was observed in older bogs due to an extremely cold–snowless winter in 2007. Soil sampling found peat extended to depths of 1.5–2.8 m with basal radiocarbon dates of ~5–7 ka bp, newly accumulating post-thermokarst peat, and evidence of repeated episodes of permafrost formation and degradation. Soil surface temperatures in post-fire scrub bogs were ~1 °C warmer than in undisturbed black spruce bogs, and thermokarst bogs and lakes were 3–5 °C warmer than black spruce bogs. Vegetation showed modest change after fire and large transformations after thermokarst. We conclude that extreme seasonal weather, ecological succession, fire, and a legacy of earlier geomorphic processes all affect the repeated formation and degradation of permafrost, and thus create a highly patchy mosaic of ecotypes resulting from widely varying ecological trajectories within boreal peatland ecosystems.more » « less
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Abstract Climate change is creating widespread ecosystem disturbance across the permafrost zone, including a rapid increase in the extent and severity of tundra wildfire. The expansion of this previously rare disturbance has unknown consequences for lateral nutrient flux from terrestrial to aquatic environments. Lateral loss of nutrients could reduce carbon uptake and slow recovery of already nutrient‐limited tundra ecosystems. To investigate the effects of tundra wildfire on lateral nutrient export, we analyzed water chemistry in and around the 10‐year‐old Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska. We collected water samples from 21 burned and 21 unburned watersheds during snowmelt, at peak growing season, and after plant senescence in 2017 and 2018. After a decade of ecosystem recovery, aboveground biomass had recovered in burned watersheds, but overall carbon and nitrogen remained ~20% lower, and the active layer remained ~10% deeper. Despite lower organic matter stocks, dissolved organic nutrients were substantially elevated in burned watersheds, with higher flow‐weighted concentrations of organic carbon (25% higher), organic nitrogen (59% higher), organic phosphorus (65% higher), and organic sulfur (47% higher). Geochemical proxies indicated greater interaction with mineral soils in watersheds with surface subsidence, but optical analysis and isotopes suggested that recent plant growth, not mineral soil, was the main source of organic nutrients in burned watersheds. Burned and unburned watersheds had similar δ15N‐NO3−, indicating that exported nitrogen was of preburn origin (i.e., not recently fixed). Lateral nitrogen flux from burned watersheds was 2‐ to 10‐fold higher than rates of background nitrogen fixation and atmospheric deposition estimated in this area. These findings indicate that wildfire in Arctic tundra can destabilize nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur previously stored in permafrost via plant uptake and leaching. This plant‐mediated nutrient loss could exacerbate terrestrial nutrient limitation after disturbance or serve as an important nutrient release mechanism during succession.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0d
