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1. A novel approach to quantify metrics of upwelling intensity, frequency, and duration

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254026  

   Abrahams, Amieroh ; Schlegel, Robert W. ; Smit, Albertus J. ( July 2021 , PLOS ONE)

   Dias, João Miguel (Ed.)

   The importance of coastal upwelling systems is widely recognized. However, several aspects of the current and future behaviors of these systems remain uncertain. Fluctuations in temperature because of anthropogenic climate change are hypothesized to affect upwelling-favorable winds and coastal upwelling is expected to intensify across all Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. To better understand how upwelling may change in the future, it is necessary to develop a more rigorous method of quantifying this phenomenon. In this paper, we use SST data and wind data in a novel method of detecting upwelling signals and quantifying metrics of upwelling intensity, duration, and frequency at four sites within the Benguela Upwelling System. We found that indicators of upwelling are uniformly detected across five SST products for each of the four sites and that the duration of those signals is longer in SST products with higher spatial resolutions. Moreover, the high-resolution SST products are significantly more likely to display upwelling signals at 25 km away from the coast when signals were also detected at the coast. Our findings promote the viability of using SST and wind time series data to detect upwelling signals within coastal upwelling systems. We highlight the importance of high-resolution data products to improve the reliability of such estimates. This study represents an important step towards the development of an objective method for describing the behavior of coastal upwelling systems. 

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2. Idealized Aquaplanet Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Activity: Significance of Temperature Gradients, Hadley Circulation, and Zonal Asymmetry

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0079.1  

   Zhang, Gan ; Silvers, Levi G. ; Zhao, Ming ; Knutson, Thomas R. ( March 2021 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Earlier studies have proposed many semiempirical relations between climate and tropical cyclone (TC) activity. To explore these relations, this study conducts idealized aquaplanet experiments using both symmetric and asymmetric sea surface temperature (SST) forcings. With zonally symmetric SST forcings that have a maximum at 10°N, reducing meridional SST gradients around an Earth-like reference state leads to a weakening and southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone. With nearly flat meridional gradients, warm-hemisphere TC numbers increase by nearly 100 times due particularly to elevated high-latitude TC activity. Reduced meridional SST gradients contribute to a poleward expansion of the tropics, which is associated with a poleward migration of the latitudes where TCs form or reach their lifetime maximum intensity. However, these changes cannot be simply attributed to the poleward expansion of Hadley circulation. Introducing zonally asymmetric SST forcings tends to decrease the global TC number. Regional SST warming—prescribed with or without SST cooling at other longitudes—affects local TC activity but does not necessarily increase TC genesis. While regional warming generally suppresses TC activity in remote regions with relatively cold SSTs, one experiment shows a surprisingly large increase of TC genesis. This increase of TC genesis over relatively cold SSTs is related to local tropospheric cooling that reduces static stability near 15°N and vertical wind shear around 25°N. Modeling results are discussed with scaling analyses and have implications for the application of the “convective quasi-equilibrium and weak temperature gradient” framework. 

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3. Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911130116  

   Wang, Bin ; Luo, Xiao ; Yang, Young-Min ; Sun, Weiyi ; Cane, Mark A. ; Cai, Wenju ; Yeh, Sang-Wook ; Liu, Jian ( November 2019 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes. 

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4. Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0  

   Chang, Ping ; Xu, Gaopeng ; Kurian, Jaison ; Small, R. Justin ; Danabasoglu, Gokhan ; Yeager, Stephen ; Castruccio, Frederic ; Zhang, Qiuying ; Rosenbloom, Nan ; Chapman, Piers ( January 2023 , Communications Earth & Environment)

   Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future upwelling changes. The Southern Hemisphere upwelling systems show a future strengthening in coastal winds with a rapid coastal warming, whereas the Northern Hemisphere coastal winds show a decrease with a comparable warming trend. The Bakun mechanism cannot explain these changes. Heat budget analysis indicates that temperature change in the upwelling region is not simply controlled by vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced by horizontal heat advection driven by strong near-coast wind stress curl that is neglected in the Bakun hypothesis and poorly represented by the low-resolution models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The high-resolution climate simulations also reveal a strong spatial variation in future upwelling changes, which is missing in the low-resolution simulations.

    

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5. Turbulent Thermal-Wind-Driven Coastal Upwelling: Current Observations and Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0063.1  

   Lentz, S. J. ( December 2022 , Journal of Physical Oceanography)

   Abstract A remarkably consistent Lagrangian upwelling circulation at monthly and longer time scales is observed in a 17-yr time series of current profiles in 12 m of water on the southern New England inner shelf. The upwelling circulation is strongest in summer, with a current magnitude of ∼1 cm s −1 , which flushes the inner shelf in ∼2.5 days. The average winter upwelling circulation is about one-half of the average summer upwelling circulation, but with larger month-to-month variations driven, in part, by cross-shelf wind stresses. The persistent upwelling circulation is not wind-driven; it is driven by a cross-shelf buoyancy force associated with less-dense water near the coast. The cross-shelf density gradient is primarily due to temperature in summer, when strong surface heating warms shallower nearshore water more than deeper offshore water, and to salinity in winter, caused by fresher water near the coast. In the absence of turbulent stresses, the cross-shelf density gradient would be in a geostrophic, thermal-wind balance with the vertical shear in the along-shelf current. However, turbulent stresses over the inner shelf attributable to strong tidal currents and wind stress cause a partial breakdown of the thermal-wind balance that releases the buoyancy force, which drives the observed upwelling circulation. The presence of a cross-shelf density gradient has a profound impact on exchange across this inner shelf. Many inner shelves are characterized by turbulent stresses and cross-shelf density gradients with lighter water near the coast, suggesting turbulent thermal-wind-driven coastal upwelling may be a broadly important cross-shelf exchange mechanism. Significance Statement A remarkably consistent upwelling circulation at monthly time scales is observed in a 17-yr time series of current profiles in shallow water off southern New England. This is not the traditional wind-driven coastal upwelling; instead, it is forced by cross-shelf buoyancy (density) gradients, released by turbulent stresses in shallow water. The persistent upwelling circulation is strongest in summer, when wind and wave forcing are weak, and flushes the inner portion of the continental shelf in a few days. Consequently, this buoyancy-driven coastal upwelling is important for cooling the inner shelf and provides a reliable mechanism for cross-shelf exchange. Many inner shelves are characterized by cross-shelf density gradients and turbulent stresses, suggesting this may be a broadly important cross-shelf exchange mechanism. 

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