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1. Climate Change in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere From the Early Twentieth Century to Early Twenty‐First Century Simulated by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model—eXtended

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039397  

   McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Liu, Han‐Li; Solomon, Stanley C.; Nossal, Susan M. (January 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   Abstract Motivated by numerous lower atmosphere climate model hindcast simulations, we performed simulations of the Earth's atmosphere from the surface up through the thermosphere‐ionosphere to reveal for the first time the century scale changes in the upper atmosphere from the 1920s through the 2010s using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model—eXtended (WACCM‐X v. 2.1). We impose solar minimum conditions to get a clear indication of the effects of the long‐term forcing from greenhouse gas increases and changes of the Earth's magnetic field and to avoid the requirement for careful removal of the 11‐year solar cycle as in some previous studies using observations and models. These previous studies have shown greenhouse gas effects in the upper atmosphere but what has been missing is the time evolution with actual greenhouse gas increases throughout the last century, including the period of less than 5% increase prior to the space age and the transition to the over 25% increase in the latter half of the 20th century. Neutral temperature, density, and ionosphere changes are close to those reported in previous studies. Also, we find high correlation between the continuous carbon dioxide rate of change over this past century and that of temperature in the thermosphere and the ionosphere, attributed to the shorter adjustment time of the upper atmosphere to greenhouse gas changes relative to the longer time in the lower atmosphere. Consequently, WACCM‐X future scenario projections can provide valuable insight in the entire atmosphere of future greenhouse gas effects and mitigation efforts. 

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2. Ionospheric Variability during the 2020–2021 SSW: COSMIC-2 Observations and WACCM-X Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030368  

   Pedatella, Nicholas (March 2022, Atmosphere)

   Variability in the ionosphere during the 2020–2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is investigated using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) observations and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere–ionosphere eXtension (WACCM-X) simulations. The unprecedented spatial–temporal sampling of the low latitude ionosphere afforded by COSMIC-2 enables investigating the short-term (<5 days) variability in the ionosphere during the SSW event. The COSMIC-2 observations reveal a reduction in the diurnal and zonal mean ionosphere total electron content (ITEC) and reduced amplitude of the diurnal variation in the ionosphere during the SSW. Enhanced ITEC amplitudes of the semidiurnal solar and lunar migrating tides and the westward propagating semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 3 are also observed. The WACCM-X simulations demonstrate that these variations are driven by variability in the stratosphere–mesosphere during the 2020–2021 SSW event. The results show the impact of the 2020–2021 SSW on the mean state, diurnal, and semidiurnal variations in the ionosphere, as well as the capabilities of the COSMIC-2 mission to observe short-term variability in the ionosphere that is driven by meteorological variability in the lower atmosphere. 

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3. Impacts of acoustic and gravity waves on the ionosphere

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.1064152  

   Zawdie, Kate; Belehaki, Anna; Burleigh, Meghan; Chou, Min-Yang; Dhadly, Manbharat S.; Greer, Katelynn; Halford, Alexa J.; Hickey, Dustin; Inchin, Pavel; Kaeppler, Stephen R.; et al (November 2022, Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences)

   The impact of regional-scale neutral atmospheric waves has been demonstrated to have profound effects on the ionosphere, but the circumstances under which they generate ionospheric disturbances and seed plasma instabilities are not well understood. Neutral atmospheric waves vary from infrasonic waves of <20 Hz to gravity waves with periods on the order of 10 min, for simplicity, hereafter they are combined under the common term Acoustic and Gravity Waves (AGWs). There are other longer period waves like planetary waves from the lower and middle atmosphere, whose effects are important globally, but they are not considered here. The most ubiquitous and frequently observed impact of AGWs on the ionosphere are Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs), but AGWs also affect the global ionosphere/thermosphere circulation and can trigger ionospheric instabilities (e.g., Perkins, Equatorial Spread F). The purpose of this white paper is to outline additional studies and observations that are required in the coming decade to improve our understanding of the impact of AGWs on the ionosphere. 

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4. Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2209631120  

   Sobel, Adam H.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Bowen, Steven G.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Cane, Mark A.; Clement, Amy; Fosu, Boniface; Hart, Megan; Reed, Kevin A.; Seager, Richard; et al (August 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models. 

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5. A Comparative Study of Ionospheric Day‐To‐Day Variability Over Wuhan Based on Ionosonde Measurements and Model Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JA028589  

   Zhou, Xu; Yue, Xinan; Liu, Han‐Li; Lu, Xian; Wu, Haonan; Zhao, Xiukuan; He, Jianhui (March 2021, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics)

   Abstract Ionospheric day‐to‐day variability is essential for understanding the space environment, while it is still challenging to properly quantify and forecast. In the present work, the day‐to‐day variability of F2 layer peak electron densities (NmF2) is examined from both observational and modeling perspectives. Ionosonde data over Wuhan station (30.5°N, 114.5°E; 19.3°N magnetic latitude) are compared with simulations from the specific dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (SD‐WACCM‐X) and the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) in 2009 and 2012. Both SD‐WACCM‐X and TIEGCM are driven by the realistic 3 h geomagnetic index and daily solar input, and the former includes self‐consistently solved physics and chemistry in the lower atmosphere. The correlation coefficient between observations and SD‐WACCM‐X simulations is much larger than that of the TIEGCM simulations, especially during dusk in 2009 and nighttime in 2012. Both the observed and SD‐WACCM‐X simulated day‐to‐day variability of NmF2 reveal a similar day‐night dependence in 2012 that increases large during the nighttime and decreases during the daytime, and shows favorable consistency of daytime variability in 2009. Both the observations and SD‐WACCM‐X simulations also display semiannual variations in nighttime NmF2 variability, although the month with maximum variability is slightly different. However, TIEGCM does not reproduce the day‐night dependence or the semiannual variations well. The results emphasize the necessity for realistic lower atmospheric perturbations to characterize ionospheric day‐to‐day variability. This work also provides a validation of the SD‐WACCM‐X in terms of ionospheric day‐to‐day variability. 

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