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1. Quasars with Periodic Variability: Capabilities and Limitations of Bayesian Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Time-Domain Surveys

   Witt, Caitlin A.; Charisi, Maria; Taylor, Stephen R.; Burke-Spolaor, Sarah (October 2021, ArXivorg)

   Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are an inevitable consequence of galaxy mergers. At sub-parsec separations, they are practically impossible to resolve and the most promising technique is to search for quasars with periodic variability. However, searches for quasar periodicity in time-domain data are challenging due to the stochastic variability of quasars. In this paper, we used Bayesian methods to disentangle periodic SMBHB signals from intrinsic damped random walk (DRW) variability in AGN light curves. We simulated a wide variety of realistic DRW and DRW+sine light curves. Their observed properties are modeled after the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) and expected properties of the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Through a careful analysis of parameter estimation and Bayesian model selection, we investigated the range of parameter space for which binary systems can be detected. We also examined which DRW signals can mimic periodicity and be falsely classified as binary candidates. We found that periodic signals are more easily detectable if the period is short or the amplitude of the signal is large compared to the contribution of the DRW noise. We saw similar detection rates both in the CRTS and LSST-like simulations, while the false detection rate depends on the quality of the data and is minimal in LSST. Our idealized simulations provide an excellent way to uncover the intrinsic limitations in quasar periodicity searches and set the stage for future searches for SMBHBs. 

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2. Reliable Identification of Binary Supermassive Black Holes from Rubin Observatory Time-domain Monitoring

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad276e  

   Davis, Megan C; Grace, Kaylee E; Trump, Jonathan R; Runnoe, Jessie C; Henkel, Amelia; Blecha, Laura; Brandt, W N; Casey-Clyde, J Andrew; Charisi, Maria; Witt, Caitlin A (April 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Periodic signatures in time-domain observations of quasars have been used to search for binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs). These searches, across existing time-domain surveys, have produced several hundred candidates. The general stochastic variability of quasars, however, can masquerade as a false-positive periodic signal, especially when monitoring cadence and duration are limited. In this work, we predict the detectability of binary SMBHs in the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We apply computationally inexpensive sinusoidal curve fits to millions of simulated LSST Deep Drilling Field light curves of both single, isolated quasars and binary quasars. The period and phase of simulated binary signals can generally be disentangled from quasar variability. Binary amplitude is overestimated and poorly recovered for two-thirds of potential binaries due to quasar accretion variability. Quasars with strong intrinsic variability can obscure a binary signal too much for recovery. We also find that the most luminous quasars mimic current binary candidate light curves and their properties: The false-positive rates are 60% for these quasars. The reliable recovery of binary period and phase for a wide range of input binary LSST light curves is promising for multi-messenger characterization of binary SMBHs. However, pure electromagnetic detections of binaries using photometric periodicity with amplitude greater than 0.1 mag will result in samples that are overwhelmed by false positives. This paper represents an important and computationally inexpensive way forward for understanding the true and false-positive rates for binary candidates identified by Rubin. 

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3. Lomb–Scargle Periodogram Struggles with Non-sinusoidal Supermassive Black Hole Binary Signatures in Quasar Lightcurves

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ae29a7  

   Lin, Allison; Charisi, Maria; Haiman, Zoltán (January 2026, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems are expected to form as a consequence of galaxy mergers. At subparsec separations, SMBHBs can be identified as quasars with periodic variability, with previous periodicity searches uncovering significant candidates. However, these searches focused primarily on sinusoidal signals, while theoretical models and hydrodynamical simulations predict that binaries produce more complex non-sinusoidal pulse shapes. Here we examine the efficacy of the Lomb–Scargle periodogram (LSP; one of the most popular tools for periodicity searches in unevenly sampled lightcurves) to detect periodicities with a sawtooth shape mimicking results of hydrodynamical simulations. We simulate idealized well-sampled lightcurves, lightcurves that mimic the data in the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) analyzed in M. Charisi et al. (2016), and lightcurves that resemble our expectations for single-band data in the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Rubin Observatory. We approximate quasar variability with a damped random walk (DRW) model, inject sinusoidal and sawtooth pulse shapes, and assess their statistical significance. We find that in the presence of red noise, the LSP detects a relatively low fraction of the sinusoidal signals (∼45%, ∼24%, and ∼23%, in the PTF-like, idealized, and LSST-like lightcurves, respectively). The fraction is significantly reduced for sawtooth periodicity (with only ∼9% in PTF-like and ∼1% in idealized and LSST-like lightcurves). These low recovery rates imply that previous searches have missed the large majority of binaries. They also have significant implications for the detection of SMBHBs in upcoming LSST necessitating the development of advanced tools that go beyond the simple LSP. 

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4. The Consequences of Rubin Observatory Time-domain Survey Design and Host-galaxy Contamination on the Identification of Binary Supermassive Black Holes

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ae2c53  

   Davis, Megan C; Trump, Jonathan R; Charisi, Maria; Runnoe, Jessie C; Brandt, W N; Grace, Kaylee E; Willson, London E (January 2026, The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series)

   Abstract Binary supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are consequences of galaxy mergers and dominate the low-frequency gravitational-wave background. Finding binary SMBHs in existing time-domain observations has proven difficult, as their periodic, electromagnetic signals can be confused with the natural variability of single quasars. In this work, we investigate the effects of host-galaxy contamination and survey design (cadence and duration) on the detectability of binary SMBHs with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We simulate millions of LSST light curves of single and binary quasars, with a distribution of quasar and host-galaxy properties motivated by empirical observations and the anticipated LSST detection space. We then apply simple sinusoidal curve fits as a potential computationally inexpensive detection method. We find that host-galaxy contamination will increase false-positive rates and decrease binary parameter recovery rates. Lower-mass, lower-luminosity binary systems are most likely to be negatively affected by host-galaxy contamination. We also find that monitoring duration affects binary detection more than survey effective cadence for this detection method. As the light-curve duration increases, false-positive rates are suppressed and binary parameter recovery rates, especially for binary periods, are improved. Increasing the light-curve duration from 5 to 10 yr shows the most dramatic improvement for successful binary detection and false-positive rejection, with additional improvement from extending the light-curve duration to 20 yr. The observation duration increase is especially critical for recovering binary periods that are longer than a decade. 

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5. Candidate Periodically Variable Quasars from the Dark Energy Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa2957  

   Chen, Yu-Ching; Liu, Xin; Liao, Wei-Ting; Holgado, A Miguel; Guo, Hengxiao; Gruendl, Robert A; Morganson, Eric; Shen, Yue; Zhang, Kaiwen; Abbott, Tim M; et al (December 2020, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Periodically variable quasars have been suggested as close binary supermassive black holes. We present a systematic search for periodic light curves in 625 spectroscopically confirmed quasars with a median redshift of 1.8 in a 4.6 deg2 overlapping region of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova (DES-SN) fields and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 (SDSS-S82). Our sample has a unique 20-year long multi-color (griz) light curve enabled by combining DES-SN Y6 observations with archival SDSS-S82 data. The deep imaging allows us to search for periodic light curves in less luminous quasars (down to r ∼23.5 mag) powered by less massive black holes (with masses ≳ 108.5M⊙) at high redshift for the first time. We find five candidates with significant (at >99.74% single-frequency significance in at least two bands with a global p-value of ∼7 × 10−4–3× 10−3 accounting for the look-elsewhere effect) periodicity with observed periods of ∼3–5 years (i.e., 1–2 years in rest frame) having ∼4–6 cycles spanned by the observations. If all five candidates are periodically variable quasars, this translates into a detection rate of $${\sim }0.8^{+0.5}_{-0.3}$$% or $${\sim }1.1^{+0.7}_{-0.5}$$ quasar per deg2. Our detection rate is 4–80 times larger than those found by previous searches using shallower surveys over larger areas. This discrepancy is likely caused by differences in the quasar populations probed and the survey data qualities. We discuss implications on the future direct detection of low-frequency gravitational waves. Continued photometric monitoring will further assess the robustness and characteristics of these candidate periodic quasars to determine their physical origins. 

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