skip to main content


Title: A sensitivity analysis of barrier island breaching
This paper will discuss the beginnings of a sensitivity analysis of barrier island breaching. The study area of Mantoloking, New Jersey, USA is used as the barrier island breached significantly during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The numerical model XBeach is used to conduct this study. The study investigates the affects that back-bay currents, water-level timing, and barrier-island configuration have on barrier island breaching.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1735139 1630099
NSF-PAR ID:
10415745
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Coastal Sediments 2023
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Physical processes driving barrier island change during storms are important to understand to mitigate coastal hazards and to evaluate conceptual models for barrier evolution. Spatial variations in barrier island topography, landcover characteristics, and nearshore and back‐barrier hydrodynamics can yield complex morphological change that requires models of increasing resolution and physical complexity to predict. Using the Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, we investigated two barrier island breaches that occurred on Fire Island, NY during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and at Matanzas, FL during Hurricane Matthew (2016). The model employed a recently implemented infragravity (IG) wave driver to represent the important effects of IG waves on nearshore water levels and sediment transport. The model simulated breaching and other changes with good skill at both locations, resolving differences in the processes and evolution. The breach simulated at Fire Island was 250 m west of the observed breach, whereas the breach simulated at Matanzas was within 100 m of the observed breach. Implementation of the vegetation module of COAWST to allow three‐dimensional drag over dune vegetation at Fire Island improved model skill by decreasing flows across the back‐barrier, as opposed to varying bottom roughness that did not positively alter model response. Analysis of breach processes at Matanzas indicated that both far‐field and local hydrodynamics influenced breach creation and evolution, including remotely generated waves and surge, but also surge propagation through back‐barrier waterways. This work underscores the importance of resolving the complexity of nearshore and back‐barrier systems when predicting barrier island change during extreme events.

     
    more » « less
  2. null (Ed.)
    Maritime forests are threatened by sea-level rise, storm surge and encroachment of salt-tolerant species. On barrier islands, these forested communities must withstand the full force of tropical storms, hurricanes and nor’easters while the impact is reduced for mainland forests protected by barrier islands. Geographic position may account for differences in maritime forest resilience to disturbance. In this study, we quantify two geographically distinct maritime forests protected by dunes on Virginia’s Eastern Shore (i.e., mainland and barrier island) at two time points (15 and 21 years apart, respectively) to determine whether the trajectory is successional or presenting evidence of disassembly with sea-level rise and storm exposure. We hypothesize that due to position on the landscape, forest disassembly will be higher on the barrier island than mainland as evidenced by reduction in tree basal area and decreased species richness. Rate of relative sea-level rise in the region was 5.9 ± 0.7 mm yr−1 based on monthly mean sea-level data from 1975 to 2017. Savage Neck Dunes Natural Area Preserve maritime forest was surveyed using the point quarter method in 2003 and 2018. Parramore Island maritime forest was surveyed in 1997 using 32 m diameter circular plots. As the island has been eroding over the past two decades, 2016 Landsat imagery was used to identify remaining forested plots prior to resurveying. In 2018, only plots that remained forested were resurveyed. Lidar was used to quantify elevation of each point/plot surveyed in 2018. Plot elevation at Savage Neck was 1.93 ± 0.02 m above sea level, whereas at Parramore Island, elevation was lower at 1.04 ± 0.08 m. Mainland dominant species, Acer rubrum, Pinus taeda, and Liquidambar styraciflua, remained dominant over the study period, with a 14% reduction in the total number of individuals recorded. Basal area increased by 11%. Conversely, on Parramore Island, 33% of the former forested plots converted to grassland and 33% were lost to erosion and occur as ghost forest on the shore or were lost to the ocean. Of the remaining forested plots surveyed in 2018, dominance switched from Persea palustris and Juniperus virginiana to the shrub Morella cerifera. Only 46% of trees/shrubs remained and basal area was reduced by 84%. Shrub basal area accounted for 66% of the total recorded in 2018. There are alternative paths to maritime forest trajectory which differ for barrier island and mainland. Geographic position relative to disturbance and elevation likely explain the changes in forest community composition over the timeframes studied. Protected mainland forest at Savage Neck occurs at higher mean elevation and indicates natural succession to larger and fewer individuals, with little change in mixed hardwood-pine dominance. The fronting barrier island maritime forest on Parramore Island has undergone rapid change in 21 years, with complete loss of forested communities to ocean or conversion to mesic grassland. Of the forests remaining, dominant evergreen trees are now being replaced with the expanding evergreen shrub, Morella cerifera. Loss of biomass and basal area has been documented in other low elevation coastal forests. Our results indicate that an intermediate shrub state may precede complete loss of woody communities in some coastal communities, providing an alternative mechanism of resilience. 
    more » « less
  3. The Calingasta-Uspallata Basin preserves a near continuous sequence of glaciomarine deposition from the middle to late Carboniferous, represented by five separate formations. Correlation between these formations have been achieved using index marine invertebrates, which also provides some implications for max-depositional ages. However, no isotopic dating analyses have been sought in this basin to further constrain the age of deposition or provide a source of provenance for sediments. The San Eduardo formation near the El Leoncito Astronomical Complex, San Juan Province, Argentina, was deposited within the Calingasta—Upsallata Basin on the western margin of the Proto-precordillera during the late Mississippian to early Pennsylvanian. This succession preserves a complete sequence of proximal glaciomarine, nearshore, and fluvial systems deposited at the beginning of the late Paleozoic ice age. Samples were collected from various stages throughout the sequence for detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology to determine sediment provenance as a way of isolating different glacier sources. Results indicate multiple stages of glaciation, with at least three distinct source areas. The lowermost stage includes locally sourced basement and recycled underlying Silurian, represented by similar Famatinian (500-460 mya) and Grenville peaks (1250-1000 mya) peaks, where the Grenville source likely originating from the Western Sierras Pampeans, which would represent a breaching of the Proto-precordillera from the east. The middle stage shows a population distinct unto itself, with a peak during the Mississippian (330-360 mya). A volcanic island arc was situated along the Andean margin during the late Paleozoic, likely resulting in the influx of Carboniferous aged volcanic sediments. The lower most stage shows relations based on K-S results to formations within the Paganzo basin to the northeast, likely serving as the outwash of these distant glaciers through braided fluvial systems. This study will expand upon current chronologic knowledge within the Calingasta-Uspallata basin and will be supported by sandstone petrology and mineralogic composition, pebble counts and composition of dropstones. 
    more » « less
  4. Barrier island models that include marsh and lagoon processes are highly parameterized. To constrain model uncertainty, those desiring to use these models should seek a robust understanding of the parameter sensitivities. In this study, global sensitivity analysis was performed on a long-term barrier island model to yield insights into the modeled barrier-backbarrier system. Given that a variety of global sensitivity analysis methods exist, each one appearing to differ in its implementation, computational burden, and output, three methods (i.e., the Two-Level Full Factorial Method, Morris Method, and Sobol Method) were applied to the model for the purposes of comparison. Key influential parameters (e.g., sea level rise rate, equilibrium/critical barrier width, and reference wind speed) were consistently identified by all three sensitivity analysis methods. Despite the relatively low number of simulations required by the Morris Method, the Two-Level Method computationally outperformed the others, warranting further exploration of the Morris Method’s parallelization structure. These results may be used to help identify parameter constraints and characterize model uncertainty toward more confident predictions and management decisions for coastal barrier systems. 
    more » « less
  5. ABSTRACT

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) as the name suggests was initially thought to only cause a respiratory illness. However, several reports have been published of patients with ischemic strokes in the setting of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). The mechanisms of how SARS‐CoV‐2 results in blood clots and large vessel strokes need to be defined as it has therapeutic implications. SARS‐CoV‐2 enters the blood stream by breaching the blood‐air barrier via the lung capillary adjacent to the alveolus, and then attaches to the angiotensin‐converting enzyme II receptors on the endothelial cells. Once SARS‐CoV‐2 enters the blood stream, a cascade of events (Steps 1‐8) unfolds including accumulation of angiotensin II, reactive oxygen species, endothelial dysfunction, oxidation of beta 2 glycoprotein 1, formation of antiphospholipid antibody complexes promoting platelet aggregation, coagulation cascade, and formation of cross‐linked fibrin blood clots, leading to pulmonary emboli (PE) and large vessel strokes seen on angiographic imaging studies. There is emerging evidence for COVID‐19 being a blood clotting disorder and SARS‐CoV‐2 using the respiratory route to enter the blood stream. As the blood‐air barrier is breached, varying degrees of collateral damage occur. Although antiviral and immune therapies are studied, the role of blood thinners in the prevention, and management of blood clots in Covid‐19 need evaluation. In addition to ventilators and blood thinners, continuous aspiration and clot retrieval devices (approved in Europe, cleared in the United States) or cyclical aspiration devices (approved in Europe) need to be considered for the emergent management of life‐threatening clots including PE and large vessel strokes.

     
    more » « less