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1. Modeling the interaction of vegetation and sea level rise on barrier island evolution

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302395  

   Robson, Gregory; Schoen, Eric; Chan, David M; Ogrosky, H Reed; Shrestha, Kiran; Zinnert, Julie C (August 2024, PLOS ONE)

   Rahman, Md Naimur (Ed.)

   Barrier islands provide a first line of defense against ocean flooding and storm surge. Biogeomorphic interactions are recognized as important in coastal system processes, but current barrier island models are primarily dominated by physical processes. Recent research has demonstrated different biogeomorphic states that influence response to sea level rise and other disturbance. Building on this understanding, we present a cellular model utilizing biotic and abiotic processes and their interactions for barrier island evolution. Using the literature and field derived parameters, we model barrier island evolution and compare to three decades of change for Smith Island, a Virginia Coast Reserve barrier island. We conduct simulations that show the impact of biogeomorphic states on island migration under different sea level rise scenarios. We find that migration is highest in areas with low topography and light vegetation cover (i.e. disturbance reinforcing) compared to areas with greater topographic complexity and high cover of woody vegetation i.e. disturbance resisting). This study demonstrates the importance of biogeomorphic interactions for barrier island evolution with sea level rise and will aid future predictions for these important ecosystems with climate change. 

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2. Energetic and physical limitations on the breaching performance of large whales

   https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.51760  

   Segre, Paolo S; Potvin, Jean; Cade, David E; Calambokidis, John; Di Clemente, Jacopo; Fish, Frank E; Friedlaender, Ari S; Gough, William T; Kahane-Rapport, Shirel R; Oliveira, Cláudia; et al (March 2020, eLife)

   The considerable power needed for large whales to leap out of the water may represent the single most expensive burst maneuver found in nature. However, the mechanics and energetic costs associated with the breaching behaviors of large whales remain poorly understood. In this study we deployed whale-borne tags to measure the kinematics of breaching to test the hypothesis that these spectacular aerial displays are metabolically expensive. We found that breaching whales use variable underwater trajectories, and that high-emergence breaches are faster and require more energy than predatory lunges. The most expensive breaches approach the upper limits of vertebrate muscle performance, and the energetic cost of breaching is high enough that repeated breaching events may serve as honest signaling of body condition. Furthermore, the confluence of muscle contractile properties, hydrodynamics, and the high speeds required likely impose an upper limit to the body size and effectiveness of breaching whales. 

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3. Simulating barrier island response to sea level rise with the barrier island and inlet environment (BRIE) model v1.0

   https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4013-2019  

   Nienhuis, Jaap H.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge (January 2019, Geoscientific Model Development)

   Abstract. Barrier islands are low-lying coastal landforms vulnerable toinundation and erosion by sea level rise. Despite their socioeconomic andecological importance, their future morphodynamic response to sea level riseor other hazards is poorly understood. To tackle this knowledge gap, weoutline and describe the BarrieR Inlet Environment (BRIE) model that cansimulate long-term barrier morphodynamics. In addition to existing overwashand shoreface formulations, BRIE accounts for alongshore sediment transport,inlet dynamics, and flood–tidal delta deposition along barrier islands.Inlets within BRIE can open, close, migrate, merge with other inlets, andbuild flood–tidal delta deposits. Long-term simulations reveal complexemergent behavior of tidal inlets resulting from interactions with sea levelrise and overwash. BRIE also includes a stratigraphic module, whichdemonstrates that barrier dynamics under constant sea level rise rates canresult in stratigraphic profiles composed of inlet fill, flood–tidal delta,and overwash deposits. In general, the BRIE model represents a process-basedexploratory view of barrier island morphodynamics that can be used toinvestigate long-term risks of flooding and erosion in barrier environments.For example, BRIE can simulate barrier island drowning in cases in which theimposed sea level rise rate is faster than the morphodynamic response of thebarrier island. 

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4. Barrier island modeling insights from applied global sensitivity analyses

   https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811275135_0261  

   S.W.H. Hoagland; J.L. Irish; R. Weiss (January 2023, Coastal Sediments 2023)

   Barrier island models that include marsh and lagoon processes are highly parameterized. To constrain model uncertainty, those desiring to use these models should seek a robust understanding of the parameter sensitivities. In this study, global sensitivity analysis was performed on a long-term barrier island model to yield insights into the modeled barrier-backbarrier system. Given that a variety of global sensitivity analysis methods exist, each one appearing to differ in its implementation, computational burden, and output, three methods (i.e., the Two-Level Full Factorial Method, Morris Method, and Sobol Method) were applied to the model for the purposes of comparison. Key influential parameters (e.g., sea level rise rate, equilibrium/critical barrier width, and reference wind speed) were consistently identified by all three sensitivity analysis methods. Despite the relatively low number of simulations required by the Morris Method, the Two-Level Method computationally outperformed the others, warranting further exploration of the Morris Method’s parallelization structure. These results may be used to help identify parameter constraints and characterize model uncertainty toward more confident predictions and management decisions for coastal barrier systems. 

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5. Long-Term Community Dynamics Reveal Different Trajectories for Two Mid-Atlantic Maritime Forests

   https://doi.org/10.3390/f12081063  

   Woods, Natasha N.; Tuley, Philip A.; Zinnert, Julie C. (August 2021, Forests)

   null (Ed.)

   Maritime forests are threatened by sea-level rise, storm surge and encroachment of salt-tolerant species. On barrier islands, these forested communities must withstand the full force of tropical storms, hurricanes and nor’easters while the impact is reduced for mainland forests protected by barrier islands. Geographic position may account for differences in maritime forest resilience to disturbance. In this study, we quantify two geographically distinct maritime forests protected by dunes on Virginia’s Eastern Shore (i.e., mainland and barrier island) at two time points (15 and 21 years apart, respectively) to determine whether the trajectory is successional or presenting evidence of disassembly with sea-level rise and storm exposure. We hypothesize that due to position on the landscape, forest disassembly will be higher on the barrier island than mainland as evidenced by reduction in tree basal area and decreased species richness. Rate of relative sea-level rise in the region was 5.9 ± 0.7 mm yr−1 based on monthly mean sea-level data from 1975 to 2017. Savage Neck Dunes Natural Area Preserve maritime forest was surveyed using the point quarter method in 2003 and 2018. Parramore Island maritime forest was surveyed in 1997 using 32 m diameter circular plots. As the island has been eroding over the past two decades, 2016 Landsat imagery was used to identify remaining forested plots prior to resurveying. In 2018, only plots that remained forested were resurveyed. Lidar was used to quantify elevation of each point/plot surveyed in 2018. Plot elevation at Savage Neck was 1.93 ± 0.02 m above sea level, whereas at Parramore Island, elevation was lower at 1.04 ± 0.08 m. Mainland dominant species, Acer rubrum, Pinus taeda, and Liquidambar styraciflua, remained dominant over the study period, with a 14% reduction in the total number of individuals recorded. Basal area increased by 11%. Conversely, on Parramore Island, 33% of the former forested plots converted to grassland and 33% were lost to erosion and occur as ghost forest on the shore or were lost to the ocean. Of the remaining forested plots surveyed in 2018, dominance switched from Persea palustris and Juniperus virginiana to the shrub Morella cerifera. Only 46% of trees/shrubs remained and basal area was reduced by 84%. Shrub basal area accounted for 66% of the total recorded in 2018. There are alternative paths to maritime forest trajectory which differ for barrier island and mainland. Geographic position relative to disturbance and elevation likely explain the changes in forest community composition over the timeframes studied. Protected mainland forest at Savage Neck occurs at higher mean elevation and indicates natural succession to larger and fewer individuals, with little change in mixed hardwood-pine dominance. The fronting barrier island maritime forest on Parramore Island has undergone rapid change in 21 years, with complete loss of forested communities to ocean or conversion to mesic grassland. Of the forests remaining, dominant evergreen trees are now being replaced with the expanding evergreen shrub, Morella cerifera. Loss of biomass and basal area has been documented in other low elevation coastal forests. Our results indicate that an intermediate shrub state may precede complete loss of woody communities in some coastal communities, providing an alternative mechanism of resilience. 

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