skip to main content


Title: Climate‐driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions
Abstract

Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate‐plus‐competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution ofPinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range‐limiting processes, including landscape‐scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate‐only perspective.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
1632706 1824796
NSF-PAR ID:
10417726
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley-Blackwell
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Ecology Letters
Volume:
25
Issue:
1
ISSN:
1461-023X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 38-51
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Consumer‐resource interactions are often influenced by other species in the community, such as when neighbouring plants increase or reduce herbivory to a focal plant species (known as associational effects). The many studies on associational effects between a focal plant and some neighbour have shown that these effects can vary greatly in strength and direction. But because almost all of these studies measure associational effects from only one or two neighbour species, we know little about the actual range of associational effects that a plant species might encounter in a natural setting. This makes it difficult to determine how important effects of neighbours are in real field settings, and how associational effects might interact with competition and other processes to influence plant community composition.

    In this study, we used a field experiment with a focal species,Solanum carolinense, and 11 common neighbour species to investigate how associational effects vary among many co‐occurring neighbour species and to test whether factors such as neighbour plant apparency, phylogenetic proximity to the focal species, or effects on focal plant defence traits help to explain interspecific variation in associational effect strength.

    We found that some neighbour species affectedS. carolinensedamage and attack by specialist herbivores, but associational effects of most neighbours were weak. Associational effects increased herbivore attack on average earlier in the season (associational susceptibility) and reduced herbivore attack on average later in the season (associational resistance) relative toS. carolinensein monoculture.

    We found some evidence that a neighbour's associational effect was related to its biomass and phylogenetic proximity to the focal species. While neighbour species differed in their effects on physical leaf traits of focal plants (trichome density, specific leaf area, and leaf toughness), these traits did not appear to mediate the effects of neighbours on focal plant herbivory.

    Synthesis. Our results suggest that the distribution of associational effect strengths in natural communities are similar to those observed for other interaction types, and that multiple mechanisms are likely acting simultaneously to shape associational effects of different neighbour species.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract Aim

    Physiological tolerances and biotic interactions along habitat gradients are thought to influence species occurrence. Distributional differences caused by such forces are particularly noticeable on tropical mountains, where high species turnover along elevational gradients occurs over relatively short distances and elevational distributions of particular species can shift among mountains. Such shifts are interpreted as evidence of the importance of spatial variation in interspecific competition and habitat or climatic gradients. To assess the relative importance of competition and compression of habitat and climatic zones in setting range limits, we examined differences in elevational ranges of forest bird species among four Bornean mountains with distinct features.

    Location

    Bornean mountains Kinabalu, Mulu, Pueh and Topap Oso.

    Taxon

    Rain forest bird communities along elevational gradients.

    Methods

    We surveyed the elevational ranges of rain forest birds on four mountains in Borneo to test which environmental variables—habitat zone compression or presence of likely competitors—best predicted differences in elevational ranges of species among mountains. For this purpose, we used two complementary tests: a comparison of elevational range limits between pairs of mountains, and linear mixed models with naïve occupancy as the response variable.

    Results

    We found that lowland species occur higher in elevation on two small mountains compared to Mt. Mulu. This result is inconsistent with the expectation that distributions of habitats are elevationally compressed on small mountains, but is consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in competition (likely diffuse) on short mountains, which largely lack montane specialist species, allows lowland species to occur higher in elevation. The relative influence of competition changes with elevation, and the correlation between lower range limits of montane species and the distribution of their competitors was weaker than in lowland species.

    Main conclusions

    These findings provide support for the importance of biotic interactions in setting elevational range limits of tropical bird species, although abiotic gradients explain the majority of distribution patterns. Thus, models predicting range shifts under climate change scenarios must include not only climatic variables, as is currently most common, but also information on potentially resulting changes in species interactions, especially for lowland species.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    As geographic range estimates for the IUCN Red List guide conservation actions, accuracy and ecological realism are crucial. IUCN’s extent of occurrence (EOO) is the general region including the species’ range, while area of occupancy (AOO) is the subset of EOO occupied by the species. Data‐poor species with incomplete sampling present particular difficulties, but species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict suitable areas. Nevertheless, SDMs typically employ abiotic variables (i.e., climate) and do not explicitly account for biotic interactions that can impose range constraints. We sought to improve range estimates for data‐poor, parapatric species by masking out areas under inferred competitive exclusion. We did so for two South American spiny pocket mice:Heteromys australis(Least Concern) andHeteromys teleus(Vulnerable due to especially poor sampling), whose ranges appear restricted by competition. For both species, we estimated EOO using SDMs and AOO with four approaches: occupied grid cells, abiotic SDM prediction, and this prediction masked by approximations of the areas occupied by each species’ congener. We made the masks using support vector machines (SVMs) fit with two data types: occurrence coordinates alone; and coordinates along with SDM predictions of suitability. Given the uncertainty in calculating AOO for low‐data species, we made estimates for the lower and upper bounds for AOO, but only make recommendations forH. teleusas its full known range was considered. The SVM approaches (especially the second one) had lower classification error and made more ecologically realistic delineations of the contact zone. ForH. teleus, the lower AOO bound (a strongly biased underestimate) corresponded to Endangered (occupied grid cells), while the upper bounds (other approaches) led to Near Threatened. As we currently lack data to determine the species’ true occupancy within the post‐processed SDM prediction, we recommend that an updated listing forH. teleusinclude these bounds for AOO. This study advances methods for estimating the upper bound of AOO and highlights the need for better ways to produce unbiased estimates of lower bounds. More generally, the SVM approaches for post‐processing SDM predictions hold promise for improving range estimates for other uses in biogeography and conservation.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Species distribution models predict shifts in forest habitat in response to warming temperatures associated with climate change, yet tree migration rates lag climate change, leading to misalignment of current species assemblages with future climate conditions. Forest adaptation strategies have been proposed to deliberately adjust species composition by planting climate‐suitable species. Practical evaluations of adaptation plantings are limited, especially in the context of ecological memory or extreme climate events.

    In this study, we examined the 3‐year survival and growth response of future climate‐adapted seedling transplants within operational‐scale silvicultural trials across temperate forests in the northeastern US. Nine species were selected for evaluation based on projected future importance under climate change and potential functional redundancy with species currently found in these ecosystems. We investigated how adaptation planting type (‘population enrichment’ vs. ‘assisted range expansion’) and local site conditions reinforce interference interactions with existing vegetation at filtering adaptation strategies focused on transitioning forest composition.

    Our results show the performance of seedling transplants is based on species (e.g. functional attributes and size), the strength of local competition (e.g. ecological memory) and adaptation planting type, a proxy for source distance. These findings were consistent across regional forests but modified by site‐specific conditions such as browse pressure and extreme climate events, namely drought and spring frost events.

    Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that managing forests for shifts in future composition represents a promising adaptation strategy for incorporating new species and functional traits into contemporary forests. Yet, important barriers remain for the establishment of future climate‐adapted forests that will most likely require management intervention. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings demonstrates the potential for adaptation plantings to serve as strategic source nodes for the establishment of future climate‐adapted species across functionally connected landscapes.

     
    more » « less