In the mid-ninth century, an earthquake triggered a landslide that blocked the narrow gorge of the Jhelum River where it exits the Kashmir Valley. The landslide impounded a lake that extended ≈100 km along the floor of the valley, implying an impounded volume of ≤21 km 3 , flooding the capital, Srinagar, and much agricultural land. An engineered breach of the landslide was contrived by a Medieval engineer resulting in the catastrophic release of flood waters. Using reasonable assumptions we calculate the probable minimum drainage time of this Medieval flood (<4 days) and maximum downstream surge velocities (≈12 m/s). These would have been sufficient to transport boulders in the bed of the Jhelum with dimensions of ≈6 m, consistent with those currently present in some reaches of the river. Given the morphology of the Jhelum gorge we consider that landslide outburst floods may have been common in Kashmir’s history. Ancient shorelines indicate that paleo-lake volumes in the Kashmir Valley may have exceeded 400 km 3 which, were they released in catastrophic floods, would have been associated with potential downstream outburst velocities >32 m/s, able to transport boulders with dimensions ≈40 m, far in excess of any found in the course of the Jhelum or in the Punjab plains. Their absence suggests that Kashmir’s ancient lakes were not lowered by outburst mechanisms much exceeding those associated with Suyya’s flood. Present-day floods have been many tens of meters shallower than those impounded by landslides in the Jhelum in the past several thousands of years. A challenge for future study will be to date Kashmir’s ancient shorelines to learn how often landslides and major impoundment events may have occurred in the valley.
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Observation of a rapid lake‐drainage event in the Arctic: Set‐up and trigger mechanisms, outburst flood behaviour, and broader fluvial impacts
Lakes set in arctic permafrost landscapes can be susceptible to rapid drainage and downstream flood generation. Of many thousands of lakes in northern Alaska, hundreds have been identified as having high drainage potential directly to river systems and 18 such drainage events have been documented since 1955. In 2018 we began monitoring a large lake with high drainage potential as part of a long‐term hydrological observation network designed to evaluate impacts of land use and climate change. In early June 2022, surface water was observed flowing over a 30‐m wide bluff, with active headward erosion of ice‐rich permafrost soils apparent by late June. This overflow point breached rapidly in early July, draining almost the entire lake within 12 h and generating a 191 m3/s flood to a downstream creek. Water level and turbidity sensors and time‐lapse cameras captured this rapid lake‐drainage event at high resolution. A wind‐driven surface seiche and warming waters following ice‐out helped trigger the initial thermomechanical breach. We estimate at least 600 MT of lake sediment was eroded, mobilized, and transported downstream. A flood wave peaking at 42 m3/s arrived 14 h after the initial breach at a river gauge 9‐km downstream. Comparing this event with three other quantified arctic lake‐drainage floods suggests that lake surface area coupled with drainage gradient height can predict outburst flood magnitude. Using this relationship we estimated future flood hazards from the 146 lakes in the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (ACP) with high drainage potential, of which 20% are expected to generate outburst floods exceeding 100 m3/s to downstream rivers. This fortunate and detailed drainage‐event observation adds to a growing body of research on the impact of lakes on arctic hydrology, hazard forecasting in a region with an increasing human footprint, and broader processes of landscape evolution in arctic lowlands.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1806213
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10419275
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0197-9337
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1615-1629
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Glacial lakes can form and grow due to glacial retreat, and rapid lake drainage can produce destructive floods. Outburst flood compilations show a temporal increase in frequency; however, recent studies highlight the role of observational bias, creating uncertainty about current and future glacial-lake hazards. Here, we focus on the Alaska region, which generated a third of previously documented outbursts globally. Using multitemporal satellite imagery, we documented 1150 drainages from 106 ice-dammed lakes between 1985 and 2020. Documented events became more frequent over time, however, accounting for increasing image availability reveals no significant increase occurred. Most lakes decreased in area and volume, suggesting a reduction in regional flood hazard. Our satellite-based approach documented 60% more events in a 35-year period than had previously been documented over 100 years. This suggests that outburst floods have historically been underreported and warrants systematic study of other regions.
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Lakes are abundant features on coastal plains of the Arctic and most are termed "thermokarst" because they form in ice-rich permafrost and gradually expand over time. The dynamic nature of thermokarst lakes also makes them prone to catastrophic drainage and abrupt conversion to wetlands, called drained thermokarst lake basins (DTLBs). Together, thermokarst lakes and DTLBs cover up to 80% of arctic lowland regions, making understanding their response to ongoing climate change essential for coastal plain environmental assessment. Datasets presented here document water level and temperature (surface and ground) regimes for a large (38 sites) array of lake with high drainage potential and lake basin (DTLBS), which have already drained, located on differing terrain units of Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain. Lake data was measured along deep protected shorelines using pressure transducers to record hourly water level and bed temperature. Wetland (DTLB) data was also measured with pressure transducers and ground thermistors at 25 and 100 centimeters (cm) depth. Of special interest at some DTLB sites was the potential occurrence of snow-dam outburst events during the early summer snowmelt periods. In these cases, pressure transducers were set to log at 10 minute intervals for this period. All data archived here are summarized at daily average values.more » « less
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Abstract Snowdrifts formed by wind transported snow deposition represent a vital component of the earth surface processes on Arctic tundra. Snow accumulation on steep slopes particularly at the margins of rivers, coasts, lakes, and drained lake basins (DLBs) comprise a significant water storage component for the ecosystem during spring and summer snowmelt. The tundra landscape is in constant change as lakes drain, substantially altering the surface morphology that partially controls how snow drifts and accumulates throughout the cold seasons. Here, we combine field measurements, remote sensing observations, and snow modeling to investigate how lake drainage affects snow redistribution at Inigok on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, where the snow movement is controlled by wind. Field observations included measurements of snow depth using ground penetrating radar and probe. We mapped mid‐July snow cover and modeled snow redistribution before and after drainage simulation for 33 lakes (∼30 km2) in our study area (∼140 km2). Our results show the advantage of using a wide range of snow depth measurements on frozen lakes, DLBs, and upland to validate the snow modeling in order to capture the variability inherent in the landscape. The lake drainage simulation suggests an increase in snow storage of up to ∼24% at DLBs compared to extant lakes, ∼35% considering only snowdrifts (assumed as ≥1 m depth), and ∼4% considering the whole study area. This increase in snow accumulation could significantly impact the landscape when it melts, including wildlife, vegetation, biogeochemical processes, and potential natural hazards like snow‐dam outburst floods.
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Abstract Bedrock erosion and canyon formation during extreme floods have dramatically altered landscapes on Earth and Mars. Grand Coulee was carved by outburst floods from Pleistocene glacial Lake Missoula and is the largest canyon in the Channeled Scabland, a megaflood‐scoured landscape in the northwestern USA. Quantifying paleo‐discharge is required to understand how landscapes evolve in response to extreme events, but there are few constraints on the magnitude of the floods that incised Grand Coulee; hence, we used hydraulic modeling and geologic evidence to quantify paleo‐flood discharges during different phases of canyon incision. When upper Grand Coulee was incising by headward waterfall retreat, the paleo‐discharge was 2.6 × 106 m3s−1, which produced shear stresses great enough to cause the waterfall to retreat via toppling of basalt columns. The largest possible flood through upper Grand Coulee, a Missoula flood which raised glacial Lake Columbia to a stage of 750 m, produced a modeled discharge of 7.6 × 106 m3s−1. The discharges associated with waterfall retreat and drainage of glacial Lake Columbia are >80% and ∼50% lower, respectively, than the 14–17 × 106 m3s−1discharge predicted by assuming the present‐day topography was inundated to the elevation of high‐water marks. Due to bedrock incision, high‐water marks may overestimate paleo‐flow depth in canyons carved by floods, hence bedrock erosion should be considered when estimating paleo‐discharge in flood‐carved canyons. Our results indicate that outburst floods with discharges and flow depths much lower than those required to inundate high‐water marks are capable of carving deep canyons.
