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1. Nitrogen Cycling Feedback on Carbon Dynamics Leads to Greater CH ₄ Emissions and Weaker Cooling Effect of Northern Peatlands

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007978  

   Zhao, Bailu; Zhuang, Qianlai (April 2024, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Northern peatlands have been a carbon sink since their initiation. This has been simulated by existing process‐based models. However, most of these models are limited by lacking sufficient processes of the N cycle in peatlands. Here, we use a peatland biogeochemistry model incorporated with N‐related processes of fixation, deposition, gas emission, loss through water flow, net mineralization, plant uptake and litterfall to project the role of the peatlands in future radiative forcing (RF). Simulations from 15‐ka BP to 2100 are conducted driven by CMIP5 climate forcing data of IPSL‐CM5A‐LR and bcc‐csm1‐1, including warming scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. During the Holocene, northern peatlands have an increasing cooling effect with RF up to −0.57 W m⁻². By 1990, these peatlands accumulate 408 Pg C and 7.8 Pg N. Under warming, increasing mineral N content enhances plant net primary productivity; the cooling effect persists. However, RF increases by 0.1–0.5 W m⁻²during the 21st century, mainly due to the stimulated CH₄emissions. Northern peatlands could switch from a C sink to a source when the annual temperature exceeds −2.2 to −0.5°C. This study highlights that the improved N cycle causes higher CO₂‐C sink capacity in northern peatlands. However, it also causes a significant increase in CH₄emissions, which weakens the cooling effect of northern peatlands in future climate. 

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2. Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117  

   Hugelius, Gustaf; Loisel, Julie; Chadburn, Sarah; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Miriam; MacDonald, Glen; Marushchak, Maija; Olefeldt, David; Packalen, Maara; Siewert, Matthias B.; et al (August 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data ( n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km 2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y −1 ) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km 2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH 4 -C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO 2 -C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO 2 -C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable. 

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3. Hydrologic Controls on Peat Permafrost and Carbon Processes: New Insights From Past and Future Modeling

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.892925  

   Treat, Claire C.; Jones, Miriam C.; Alder, Jay; Frolking, Steve (May 2022, Frontiers in Environmental Science)

   Soil carbon (C) in permafrost peatlands is vulnerable to decomposition with thaw under a warming climate. The amount and form of C loss likely depends on the site hydrology following permafrost thaw, but antecedent conditions during peat accumulation are also likely important. We test the role of differing hydrologic conditions on rates of peat accumulation, permafrost formation, and response to warming at an Arctic tundra fen using a process-based model of peatland dynamics in wet and dry landscape settings that persist from peat initiation in the mid-Holocene through future simulations to 2100 CE and 2300 CE. Climate conditions for both the wet and dry landscape settings are driven by the same downscaled TraCE-21ka transient paleoclimate simulations and CCSM4 RCP8.5 climate drivers. The landscape setting controlled the rates of peat accumulation, permafrost formation and the response to climatic warming and permafrost thaw. The dry landscape scenario had high rates of initial peat accumulation (11.7 ± 3.4 mm decade −1 ) and rapid permafrost aggradation but similar total C stocks as the wet landscape scenario. The wet landscape scenario was more resilient to 21st century warming temperatures than the dry landscape scenario and showed 60% smaller C losses and 70% more new net peat C additions by 2100 CE. Differences in the modeled responses indicate the largest effect is related to the landscape setting and basin hydrology due to permafrost controls on decomposition, suggesting an important sensitivity to changing runoff patterns. These subtle hydrological effects will be difficult to capture at circumpolar scales but are important for the carbon balance of permafrost peatlands under future climate warming. 

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4. Controls on Stable Methane Isotope Values in Northern Peatlands and Potential Shifts in Values Under Permafrost Thaw Scenarios

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007837  

   Kuhn, McKenzie A; Varner, Ruth K; McCalley, Carmody K; Perryman, Clarice R; Aurela, Mika; Burke, Sophia A; Chanton, Jeffrey P; Crill, Patrick M; DelGreco, Jessica; Deng, Jia; et al (July 2024, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH₄), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH₄production in peatlands will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C‐CH₄) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ¹³C‐CH₄is used in top‐down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH₄production pathways and associated δ¹³C‐CH₄values is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ¹³C‐CH₄values from high‐latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH₄stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal‐Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ¹³C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (−61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost‐free bogs (−74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (−81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄was best explained by sedge cover, CH₄concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH (r² = 0.50,p < 0.001). Emitted δ¹³C‐CH₄varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ¹³C‐CH₄. We calculated a mixed atmospheric δ¹³C‐CH₄value for northern peatlands of −65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this value is more sensitive to landscape drying than wetting under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ¹³C‐CH₄values are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models. 

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5. Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018  

   Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Miller, Charles E. (January 2018, The Cryosphere)

   Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely tooffset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL)terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback mayact as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedbackmay be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perenniallythawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration,ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems fromlong-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand andcharacterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, andrespiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback.Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost andbiogeochemistry model, in comparison to long-term deep borehole data alongNorth American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw-driven C sourcesin NHL (&gt;55^∘N) from 2000 to 2300. Widespread talik at depth isprojected across most of the NHL permafrost region(14million km²) by 2300, 6.2million km² of which isprojected to become a long-term C source, emitting 10Pg C by 2100,50Pg C by 2200, and 120Pg C by 2300, with few signs ofslowing. Roughly half of the projected C source region is in predominantlywarm sub-Arctic permafrost following talik onset. This region emits only20Pg C by 2300, but the CLM4.5 estimate may be biased low by notaccounting for deep C in yedoma. Accelerated decomposition of deep soilC following talik onset shifts the ecosystem C balance away from surfacedominant processes (photosynthesis and litter respiration), butsink-to-source transition dates are delayed by 20–200 years by highecosystem productivity, such that talik peaks early (∼2050s, although boreholedata suggest sooner) and C source transition peaks late(∼2150–2200). The remaining C source region in cold northern Arcticpermafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), emits5 times more C (95Pg C) by 2300, and prior to talik formation dueto the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic-rich soilscoupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signalingimminent talik onset and C source transition, including (1) late cold-season(January–February) soil warming at depth (∼2m),(2) increasing cold-season emissions (November–April), and (3) enhancedrespiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic-rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes thatgovern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes and emphasize theurgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold-season CO₂ emissions, andatmospheric ¹⁴CO₂ as key indicatorsof the permafrost C feedback. 

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