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Title: Likelihood-Free Dynamical Survival Analysis applied to the COVID-19 epidemic in Ohio
The Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) is a framework for modeling epidemics based on mean field dynamics applied to individual (agent) level history of infection and recovery. Recently, the Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) method has been shown to be an effective tool in analyzing complex non-Markovian epidemic processes that are otherwise difficult to handle using standard methods. One of the advantages of Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) is its representation of typical epidemic data in a simple although not explicit form that involves solutions of certain differential equations. In this work we describe how a complex non-Markovian Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA) model may be applied to a specific data set with the help of appropriate numerical and statistical schemes. The ideas are illustrated with a data example of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ohio.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2027001
PAR ID:
10421173
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume:
20
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1551-0018
Page Range / eLocation ID:
4103 to 4127
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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