The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced travel but led to an increase in household food and energy consumption. Previous studies have explored the changes in household consumption of food and energy during the pandemic; however, the economy-wide environmental implications of these changes have not been investigated. This study addresses the knowledge gap by estimating the life cycle environmental impacts of U.S. households during the pandemic using a hybrid life cycle assessment. The results revealed that the reduction in travel outweighed the increase in household energy consumption, leading to a nationwide decrease in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (−255 Mton CO2eq), energy use (−4.46 EJ), smog formation (−9.17 Mton O3eq), minerals and metal use (−16.1 Mton), commercial wastes (−8.31 Mton), and acidification (−226 kton SO2eq). However, U.S. households had more life cycle freshwater withdrawals (+8.6 Gton) and slightly higher eutrophication (+0.2%), ozone depletion (+0.7%), and freshwater ecotoxicity (+2.1%) caused by increased household energy and food consumption. This study also demonstrated the environmental trade-offs between decreased food services and increased food consumption at home, resulting in diverse trends for food-related life cycle environmental impacts.
This content will become publicly available on May 30, 2024
Model-Based Vehicle-Miles Traveled and Emission Evaluation of On-Demand Food Delivery Considering the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic
The market for on-demand food delivery (ODFD) has increased considerably, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is crucial for transportation and environmental agencies to understand how ODFD has reshaped the travel patterns of people, affecting vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) as well as pollutant emissions in the transportation system. However, the lack of public data from food delivery companies makes it challenging to quantify the impact of on-demand delivery on the real-world transportation network. In this research, we propose a comprehensive framework to quantify the VMT and emissions incurred by ODFD with three main components: (i) a daily activity generation tool, Comprehensive Econometric Micro-simulator for Daily Activity-travel Patterns, to create a simulation scenario of ODFD behaviors based on a real-world roadway network and population demographics in the City of Riverside, California; (ii) an efficient order dispatching and routing algorithm, adaptive large neighborhood search, to obtain a high quality order dispatching and routing plan; (iii) an emission evaluation model, emission factor (EMFAC), to evaluate pollutant emissions from all dining-related trips. Both short-term and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are evaluated. Experimental results show that ODFD has great potential to reduce the dining-related VMT and emissions. The total dining-related VMT in the during-pandemic case decreased by 38% and in the after-pandemic case reduced by 6% to 9%, and the corresponding environmental impacts were reduced accordingly. Meanwhile, emissions reduced significantly with more electric vehicles involved in food delivery. With 100% electric delivery fleet, the ODFD service can save 14% to 22% of emissions after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2152258
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10426992
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
- ISSN:
- 0361-1981
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 036119812311692
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. 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One of the most notable global transportation trends is the accelerated pace of development in vehicle automation technologies. Uncertainty surrounds the future of automated mobility as there is no clear consensus on potential adoption patterns, ownership versus shared use status, and travel impacts. Adding to this uncertainty is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which has triggered profound changes in mobility behaviors as well as accelerated the adoption of new technologies at an unprecedented rate. Accordingly, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people’s intention to adopt the emerging technology of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Using data from a survey disseminated in June 2020 to 700 respondents in the United States, a difference-in-difference regression is performed to analyze the shift in willingness to use AVs as part of an on-demand mobility service before and during the pandemic. The results reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive and highly significant impact on the intention to use AVs. This shift is present regardless of tech-savviness, gender, or urban/rural household location. Results indicate that individuals who are younger, politically left-leaning, and frequent users of on-demand modes of travel are expected to be more likely to use AVs once offered. Understanding the systematic segment and attribute variation determining the increase in consideration of AVs is important for policy making, as these effects provide a guide to predicting adoption of AVs—once available—and to identify segments of the population likely to be more resistant to adopting AVs.
