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Title: Hurricane Simulation and Nonstationary Extremal Analysis for a Changing Climate
Abstract Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum wind speeds. Since extremes in maximum wind speed have a direct relationship with minima in the central pressure, accurate wind speed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum wind speeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum wind speeds for all regions along the coast, with the highest maximum wind speeds occurring along the northeast seaboard.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2009923
PAR ID:
10427599
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume:
61
Issue:
11
ISSN:
1558-8424
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1635 to 1648
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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