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Close contacts between individuals provide opportunities for the transmission of diseases, including COVID-19. While individuals take part in many different types of interactions, including those with classmates, co-workers and household members, it is the conglomeration of all of these interactions that produces the complex social contact network interconnecting individuals across the population. Thus, while an individual might decide their own risk tolerance in response to a threat of infection, the consequences of such decisions are rarely so confined, propagating far beyond any one person. We assess the effect of different population-level risk-tolerance regimes, population structure in the form of age and household-size distributions, and different interaction types on epidemic spread in plausible human contact networks to gain insight into how contact network structure affects pathogen spread through a population. In particular, we find that behavioural changes by vulnerable individuals in isolation are insufficient to reduce those individuals’ infection risk and that population structure can have varied and counteracting effects on epidemic outcomes. The relative impact of each interaction type was contingent on assumptions underlying contact network construction, stressing the importance of empirical validation. Taken together, these results promote a nuanced understanding of disease spread on contact networks, with implications for public health strategies.
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Effects of network topology and trait distribution on collective decision making
Individual-level interactions shape societal or economic processes, such as infectious diseases spreading, stock prices fluctuating and public opinion shifting. Understanding how the interaction of different individuals affects collective outcomes is more important than ever, as the internet and social media develop. Social networks representing individuals' influence relations play a key role in understanding the connections between individual-level interactions and societal or economic outcomes. Recent research has revealed how the topology of a social network affects collective decision-making in a community. Furthermore, the traits of individuals that determine how they process received information for making decisions also change a community's collective decisions. In this work, we develop stochastic processes to generate networks of individuals with two simple traits: Being a conformist and being an anticonformist. We introduce a novel deterministic voter model for a trait-attributed network, where the individuals make binary choices following simple deterministic rules based on their traits. We show that the simple deterministic rules can drive unpredictable fluctuations of collective decisions which eventually become periodic. We study the effects of network topology and trait distribution on the first passage time for a sequence of collective decisions showing periodicity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2054347
- PAR ID:
- 10433221
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AIMS Mathematics
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2473-6988
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 12287 to 12320
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3934/math.2023619
