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Title: Better Accuracy for Better Science . . . Through Random Conclusions
Conducting research with human subjects can be difficult because of limited sample sizes and small empirical effects. We demonstrate that this problem can yield patterns of results that are practically indistinguishable from flipping a coin to determine the direction of treatment effects. We use this idea of random conclusions to establish a baseline for interpreting effect-size estimates, in turn producing more stringent thresholds for hypothesis testing and for statistical-power calculations. An examination of recent meta-analyses in psychology, neuroscience, and medicine confirms that, even if all considered effects are real, results involving small effects are indeed indistinguishable from random conclusions.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2145308
PAR ID:
10433301
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
SAGE Publications
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Perspectives on Psychological Science
Volume:
19
Issue:
1
ISSN:
1745-6916
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 223-243
Size(s):
p. 223-243
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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