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1. Identifying and Characterizing Behavioral Classes of Radicalization within the QAnon Conspiracy on Twitter

   https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v17i1.22197  

   Wang, Emily L; Luceri, Luca; Pierri, Francesco; Ferrara, Emilio (June 2023, Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media)

   Social media provide a fertile ground where conspiracy theories and radical ideas can flourish, reach broad audiences, and sometimes lead to hate or violence beyond the online world itself. QAnon represents a notable example of a political conspiracy that started out on social media but turned mainstream, in part due to public endorsement by influential political figures. Nowadays, QAnon conspiracies often appear in the news, are part of political rhetoric, and are espoused by significant swaths of people in the United States. It is therefore crucial to understand how such a conspiracy took root online, and what led so many social media users to adopt its ideas. In this work, we propose a framework that exploits both social interaction and content signals to uncover evidence of user radicalization or support for QAnon. Leveraging a large dataset of 240M tweets collected in the run-up to the 2020 US Presidential election, we define and validate a multivariate metric of radicalization. We use that to separate users in distinct, naturally-emerging, classes of behaviors associated with radicalization processes, from self-declared QAnon supporters to hyper-active conspiracy promoters. We also analyze the impact of Twitter's moderation policies on the interactions among different classes: we discover aspects of moderation that succeed, yielding a substantial reduction in the endorsement received by hyperactive QAnon accounts. But we also uncover where moderation fails, showing how QAnon content amplifiers are not deterred or affected by the Twitter intervention. Our findings refine our understanding of online radicalization processes, reveal effective and ineffective aspects of moderation, and call for the need to further investigate the role social media play in the spread of conspiracies. 

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2. Conspiracies Online: User Discussions in a Conspiracy Community Following Dramatic Events

   Samory, Mattia; Mitra, Tanushree (June 2018, Twelfth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media)

   Online communities play a crucial role in disseminating conspiracy theories. New theories often emerge in the aftermath of catastrophic events. Despite evidence of their widespread appeal, surprisingly little is known about who participates in these event-specific conspiratorial discussions or how do these discussions evolve over time. We study r/conspiracy, an active Reddit community of more than 200,000 users dedicated to conspiratorial discussions. By focusing on four tragic events and 10 years of discussions, we find three distinct user cohorts: joiners, who never participated in Reddit but joined r/conspiracy only after the event; converts who were active Reddit users but joined r/conspiracy only after the event; and veterans, who are longstanding r/conspiracy members. While joiners and converts have a shorter lifespan in the community in comparison to the veterans, joiners are more active during their shorter tenure, becoming increasingly engaged over time. Finally, to investigate how these events affect users’ conspiratorial discussions, we adopted a causal inference approach to analyze user comments around the time of the events. We find that discussions happening after the event exhibit signs of emotional shock, increased language complexity, and simultaneous expressions of certainty and doubtfulness. Our work provides insight on how online communities may detect new conspiracy theories that emerge ensuing dramatic events, and in the process stop them before they spread. 

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3. Characterizing Social Imaginaries and Self-Disclosures of Dissonance in Online Conspiracy Discussion Communities

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3479855  

   Phadke, Shruti; Samory, Mattia; Mitra, Tanushree (October 2021, Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction)

   Online discussion platforms provide a forum to strengthen and propagate belief in misinformed conspiracy theories. Yet, they also offer avenues for conspiracy theorists to express their doubts and experiences of cognitive dissonance. Such expressions of dissonance may shed light on who abandons misguided beliefs and under what circumstances. This paper characterizes self-disclosures of dissonance about QAnon-a conspiracy theory initiated by a mysterious leader "Q" and popularized by their followers ?anons"-in conspiratorial subreddits. To understand what dissonance and disbelief mean within conspiracy communities, we first characterize their social imaginaries-a broad understanding of how people collectively imagine their social existence. Focusing on 2K posts from two image boards, 4chan and 8chan, and 1.2 M comments and posts from 12 subreddits dedicated to QAnon, we adopt a mixed-methods approach to uncover the symbolic language representing the movement,expectations,practices,heroes and foes of the QAnon community. We use these social imaginaries to create a computational framework for distinguishing belief and dissonance from general discussion about QAnon, surfacing in the 1.2M comments. We investigate the dissonant comments to characterize the dissonance expressed along QAnon social imaginaries. Further, analyzing user engagement with QAnon conspiracy subreddits, we find that self-disclosures of dissonance correlate with a significant decrease in user contributions and ultimately with their departure from the community. Our work offers a systematic framework for uncovering the dimensions and coded language related to QAnon social imaginaries and can serve as a toolbox for studying other conspiracy theories across different platforms. We also contribute a computational framework for identifying dissonance self-disclosures and measuring the changes in user engagement surrounding dissonance. Our work provide insights into designing dissonance based interventions that can potentially dissuade conspiracists from engaging in online conspiracy discussion communities. 

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4. Depressive symptoms and conspiracy beliefs

   https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.4011  

   Green, Jon; Druckman, James N.; Baum, Matthew A.; Lazer, David; Ognyanova, Katherine; Perlis, Roy H. (November 2022, Applied Cognitive Psychology)

   Abstract Conspiratorial beliefs can endanger individuals and societies by increasing the likelihood of harmful behaviors such as the flouting of public health guidelines. While scholars have identified various correlates of conspiracy beliefs, one factor that has received scant attention is depressive symptoms. We use three large surveys to explore the connection between depression and conspiracy beliefs. We find a consistent association, with the extent of the relationship depending on individual and situational factors. Interestingly, those from relatively advantaged demographic groups (i.e., White, male, high income, educated) exhibit a stronger relationship between depression and conspiracy beliefs than those not from such groups. Furthermore, situational variables that ostensibly increase stress—such as having COVID‐19 or parenting during COVID‐19—exacerbate the relationship while those that seem to decrease stress, such as social support, vitiate it. The results provide insight about the development of targeted interventions and accentuate the need for theorizing about the mechanisms that lead depression to correlate with conspiracy beliefs. 

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5. What Makes People Join Conspiracy Communities?: Role of Social Factors in Conspiracy Engagement

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3432922  

   Phadke, Shruti; Samory, Mattia; Mitra, Tanushree (January 2021, Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction)

   null (Ed.)

   Widespread conspiracy theories, like those motivating anti-vaccination attitudes or climate change denial, propel collective action, and bear society-wide consequences. Yet, empirical research has largely studied conspiracy theory adoption as an individual pursuit, rather than as a socially mediated process. What makes users join communities endorsing and spreading conspiracy theories? We leverage longitudinal data from 56 conspiracy communities on Reddit to compare individual and social factors determining which users join the communities. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we first identify 30K future conspiracists?(FC) and30K matched non-conspiracists?(NC). We then provide empirical evidence of the importance of social factors across six dimensions relative to the individual factors by analyzing 6 million Reddit comments and posts. Specifically, in social factors, we find that dyadic interactions with members of the conspiracy communities and marginalization outside of the conspiracy communities are the most important social precursors to conspiracy joining-even outperforming individual factor baselines. Our results offer quantitative backing to understand social processes and echo chamber effects in conspiratorial engagement, with important implications for democratic institutions and online communities. 

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