Visualizations attempt to convey the uncertain track of an approaching hurricane. The current experiment contrasted decision characteristics that resulted from observing hurricane paths presented using cones of uncertainty versus a new form of dynamic ensemble. Participants made judgments about whether to evacuate a town at different eccentricities to the central predicted path of a storm. Results showed that dynamic ensembles have different properties to cone displays. Presentations of dynamic ensembles encouraged greater consideration of evacuation at locations further from the most probable path, but that were still at risk. However, dynamic ensembles resulted in lower evacuation rates at the center of the distribution, consistent with a probabilistic sense of the risk but nonetheless a potentially undesirable strategy. In addition, perceptions of the evacuation need with dynamic ensemble presentations were more strongly influenced by the amount of variability than with cones. The implications for use of dynamic ensembles are discussed.
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Risk Perception and Preparation for Storm Surge Flooding: A Virtual Workshop with Visualization and Stakeholder Interaction
Abstract Many factors shape public perceptions of extreme weather risk; understanding these factors is important to encourage preparedness. This article describes a novel workshop designed to encourage individual and community decision-making about predicted storm surge flooding. Over 160 U.S. college students participated in this 4-h experience. Distinctive features included 1) two kinds of visualizations, standard weather forecasting graphics versus 3D computer graphics visualization; 2) narrative about a fictitious storm, role-play, and guided discussion of participants’ concerns; and 3) use of an “ethical matrix,” a collective decision-making tool that elicits diverse perspectives based on the lived experiences of diverse stakeholders. Participants experienced a narrative about a hurricane with potential for devastating storm surge flooding on a fictitious coastal college campus. They answered survey questions before, at key points during, and after the narrative, interspersed with forecasts leading to predicted storm landfall. During facilitated breakout groups, participants role-played characters and filled out an ethical matrix. Discussing the matrix encouraged consideration of circumstances impacting evacuation decisions. Participants’ comments suggest several components may have influenced perceptions of personal risk, risks to others, the importance of monitoring weather, and preparing for emergencies. Surprisingly, no differences between the standard forecast graphics versus the immersive, hyperlocal visualizations were detected. Overall, participants’ comments indicate the workshop increased appreciation of others’ evacuation and preparation challenges.
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- PAR ID:
- 10435423
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Volume:
- 104
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0003-0007
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- E1232 to E1240
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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