Abstract Sufficient low-level storm-relative flow is a necessary ingredient for sustained supercell thunderstorms and is connected to supercell updraft width. Assuming a supercell exists, the role of low-level storm-relative flow in regulating supercells’ low-level mesocyclone intensity is less clear. One possibility considered in this article is that storm-relative flow controls mesocyclone and tornado width via its modulation of overall updraft extent. This hypothesis relies on a previously postulated positive correspondence between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width. An alternative hypothesis is that mesocyclone characteristics are primarily regulated by horizontal streamwise vorticity irrespective of storm-relative flow. A matrix of supercell simulations was analyzed to address the aforementioned hypotheses, wherein horizontal streamwise vorticity and storm-relative flow were independently varied. Among these simulations, mesocyclone width and intensity were strongly correlated with horizontal streamwise vorticity, and comparatively weakly correlated with storm-relative flow, supporting the second hypothesis. Accompanying theory and trajectory analysis offers the physical explanation that, when storm-relative flow is large and updrafts are wide, vertically tilted streamwise vorticity is projected over a wider area but with a lesser average magnitude than when these parameters are small. These factors partially offset one another, degrading the correspondence of storm-relative flow with updraft circulation and rotational velocity, which are the mesocyclone attributes most closely tied to tornadoes. These results refute the previously purported connections between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width, and emphasize horizontal streamwise vorticity as the primary control on low-level mesocyclones in sustained supercells. Significance Statement The intensity of a supercell thunderstorm’s low-level rotation, known as the “mesocyclone,” is thought to influence tornado likelihood. Mesocyclone intensity depends on many environmental attributes that are often correlated with one another and difficult to disentangle. This study used a large body of numerical simulations to investigate the influence of the speed of low-level air entering a supercell (storm-relative flow), the horizontal spin of the ambient air entering the thunderstorm (streamwise vorticity), and the width of the storm’s updraft. Our results suggest that the rotation of the mesocyclone in supercells is primarily influenced by streamwise vorticity, with comparatively weaker connections to storm-relative flow and updraft width. These findings provide important clarification in our scientific understanding of how a storm’s environment influences the rate of rotation of its mesocyclone, and the associated tornado threat.
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Supercell Low-Level Mesocyclones: Origins of Inflow and Vorticity
The development and intensification of low-level mesocyclones in supercell thunderstorms have often been attributed, at least in part, to augmented streamwise vorticity generated baroclinically in the forward flank of supercells. However, the ambient streamwise vorticity of the environment (often quantified via storm-relative helicity), especially near the ground, is particularly skillful at discriminating between nontornadic and tornadic supercells. This study investigates whether the origins of the inflow air into supercell low-level mesocyclones, both horizontally and vertically, can help explain the dynamical role of environmental versus storm-generated vorticity in the development of low-level mesocyclone rotation. Simulations of supercells, initialized with wind profiles common to supercell environments observed in nature, show that the air bound for the low-level mesocyclone primarily originates from the ambient environment (rather than from along the forward flank) and from very close to the ground, often in the lowest 200–400 m of the atmosphere. Given that the near-ground environmental air comprises the bulk of the inflow into low-level mesocyclones, this likely explains the forecast skill of environmental streamwise vorticity in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. The low-level mesocyclone does not appear to require much augmentation from the development of additional horizontal vorticity in the forward flank. Instead, the dominant contributor to vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone is from the environmental horizontal vorticity. This study provides further context to the ongoing discussion regarding the development of rotation within supercell low-level mesocyclones.
Supercell thunderstorms produce the majority of tornadoes, and a defining characteristic of supercells is their rotating updraft, known as the “mesocyclone.” When the mesocyclone is stronger at lower altitudes, the likelihood of tornadoes increases. The purpose of this study is to understand if the rotation of the mesocyclone in supercells is due to horizontal spin present in the ambient environment or whether additional horizontal spin generated by the storm itself primarily drives this rotation. Our results suggest that inflow air into supercells and low-level mesocyclone rotation are mainly due to the properties of the environmental inflow air, especially near the ground. This hopefully provides further context to how our community views the development of low-level mesocyclones in supercells.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10442013
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- Volume:
- 151
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2205-2232
- Size(s):
- p. 2205-2232
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Supercell thunderstorms develop low-level rotation via tilting of environmental horizontal vorticity (
ω h ) by the updraft. This rotation induces dynamic lifting that can stretch near-surface vertical vorticity into a tornado. Low-level updraft rotation is generally thought to scale with 0–500 m storm-relative helicity (SRH): the combination of storm-relative flow, |SRF |, |ω h |, and cosϕ (whereϕ is the angle betweenSRF andω h ). It is unclear how much influence each component of SRH has in intensifying the low-level mesocyclone. This study surveys these three components using self-organizing maps (SOMs) to distill 15 906 proximity soundings for observed right-moving supercells. Statistical analyses reveal the component most highly correlated to SRH and to streamwise vorticity (ωs ) in the observed profiles is |ω h |. Furthermore, |ω h | and |SRF | are themselves highly correlated due to their shared dependence on the hodograph length. The representative profiles produced by the SOMs were combined with a common thermodynamic profile to initialize quasi-realistic supercells in a cloud model. The simulations reveal that, across a range of real-world profiles, intense low-level mesocyclones are most closely linked toω h andSRF , while the angle between them appears to be mostly inconsequential.Significance Statement About three-fourths of all tornadoes are produced by rotating thunderstorms (supercells). When the part of the storm near cloud base (approximately 1 km above the ground) rotates more strongly, the chance of a tornado dramatically increases. The goal of this study is to identify the simplest characteristic(s) of the environmental wind profile that can be used to forecast the likelihood of strong cloud-base rotation. This study concludes that the most important ingredients for storm rotation are the magnitudes of the horizontal vertical wind shear between the surface and 500 m and the storm inflow wind, irrespective of their relative directions. This finding may lead to improved operational identification of environments favoring tornado formation.
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Abstract Results from a large eddy simulation of a tornadic supercell developing in a horizontally homogeneous environment are presented which clearly illustrate a connection between low‐level mesoyclone development and the development of a streamwise vorticity current (SVC). Although the environment supports tornadic supercells, a strong low‐level mesocyclone (LLM) does not develop until a well‐defined SVC forms in the storm's forward flank. As the streamwise vorticity in the SVC flows southward and is tilted into the storm updraft creating updraft helicity, the LLM strengthens and lowers toward the surface. The SVC also focuses LLM development in a confined storm‐relative position favorable for converging/stretching preexisting vertical vorticity. Tornadogenesis occurs within ∼5 min of the establishment of a strong LLM. These results illustrate a possible mode of internal storm variability that may be an important factor in explaining why some supercells produce tornadoes while others do not in similar favorable environments.
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Abstract Large midlevel (3–6 km AGL) shear is commonly observed in supercell environments. However, any possible influence of midlevel shear on an updraft has been relatively unexplored until now. To investigate, we ran 10 simulations of supercells in a range of environments with varying midlevel shear magnitudes. In most cases, larger midlevel shear results in a storm motion that is faster relative to the low-level hodograph, meaning that larger midlevel shear leads to stronger low-level storm-relative flow. Because they are physically connected, we present an analysis of the effects of both midlevel shear and low-level storm-relative flow on supercell updraft dynamics. Larger midlevel shear does not lead to an increase in cohesive updraft rotation. The tilting of midlevel environmental vorticity does lead to localized areas of larger vertical vorticity on the southern edge of the updraft, but any dynamical influence of this is overshadowed by that of much larger horizontal vorticity in the same area associated with rotor-like circulations. This storm-generated horizontal vorticity is the primary driver behind lower nonlinear dynamic pressure on the southern flank of the midlevel updraft when midlevel shear and low-level storm-relative flow are larger, which leads to a larger nonlinear dynamic pressure acceleration in those cases. Storm-generated horizontal vorticity is responsible for the lowest nonlinear dynamic pressure anywhere in the midlevel updraft, unless the mesocyclone becomes particularly intense. These results clarify the influence of midlevel shear on a supercell thunderstorm, and provide additional insight on the role of low-level storm-relative flow on updraft dynamics.
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