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1. Pacific Meridional Modes without Equatorial Pacific Influence

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0573.1  

   Zhang, Yu; Yu, Shiyun; Amaya, Dillon J.; Kosaka, Yu; Larson, Sarah M.; Wang, Xudong; Yang, Jun-Chao; Stuecker, Malte F.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J.; et al (April 2021, Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Investigating Pacific Meridional Modes (PMM) without the influence of tropical Pacific variability is technically difficult if based on observations or fully coupled model simulations due to their overlapping spatial structures. To confront this issue, the present study investigates both North (NPMM) and South PMM (SPMM) in terms of their associated atmospheric forcing and response processes based on a mechanically decoupled climate model simulation. In this experiment, the climatological wind stress is prescribed over the tropical Pacific, which effectively removes dynamically coupled tropical Pacific variability (e.g., the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Interannual NPMM in this experiment is forced not only by the North Pacific Oscillation, but also by a North Pacific tripole (NPT) pattern of atmospheric internal variability, which primarily forces decadal NPMM variability. Interannual and decadal variability of the SPMM is partly forced by the South Pacific Oscillation. In turn, both interannual and decadal NPMM variability can excite atmospheric teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics by influencing the meridional displacement of the climatological intertropical convergence zone throughout the whole year. Similarly, both interannual and decadal SPMM variability can also excite atmospheric teleconnections over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics by extending/shrinking the climatological South Pacific convergence zone in all seasons. Our results highlight a new poleward pathway by which both the NPMM and SPMM feed back to the extratropical climate, in addition to the equatorward influence on tropical Pacific variability. 

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2. Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-084555  

   Di Lorenzo, E.; Xu, T.; Zhao, Y.; Newman, M.; Capotondi, A.; Stevenson, S.; Amaya, D.J.; Anderson, B.T.; Ding, R.; Furtado, J.C.; et al (January 2023, Annual Review of Marine Science)

   The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific. 

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3. Separating the North and South Pacific Meridional Modes Contributions to ENSO and Tropical Decadal Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080320  

   Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele (January 2019, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract North and South Pacific Meridional Modes (NPMM and SPMM) are known precursors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV). However, the relative importance of these precursors and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a 30‐member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, we generate two additional members where the NPMM and SPMM are selectively suppressed. We find that both meridional modes energize the tropical variance independently on different timescales. The absence of NPMM leads to a significant reduction of the tropical interannual variability (~35%), while the absence of the SPMM has no appreciable impact on ENSO but significantly reduces the TPDV (~30%). While the relative importance of the NPMM and SPMM may be model dependent, the stochastic atmospheric variability in the extratropics that energizes the meridional modes emerges as a key source of TPDV. 

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4. Equatorial Western–Central Pacific SST Responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO Sequence

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0434.1  

   Hu, Suqiong; Zhang, Wenjun; Watanabe, Masahiro; Jiang, Feng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Chen, Han-Ching (June 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO. 

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5. The Critical Role of Non-Normality in Partitioning Tropical and Extratropical Contributions to PNA Growth

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0555.1  

   Henderson, Stephanie A.; Vimont, Daniel J.; Newman, Matthew (July 2020, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern has been linked both to tropical phenomena, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and to internal extratropical processes, including interactions with the zonally varying basic state and synoptic eddies. Many questions remain, however, concerning how these various relationships act, both separately and together, to yield observed PNA variability. Using linear inverse modeling (LIM), this study finds that the development and amplification of PNA anomalies largely results from the interference of modes strongly coupled to sea surface temperatures (SST), such as ENSO, and modes internal to the atmosphere, including the MJO. These SST-coupled and “internal atmospheric” modes form subspaces that are not orthogonal, and PNA growth is shown to occur via non-normal interactions. An internal atmospheric space LIM is developed to examine growth beyond this interference by removing the SST-coupled modes, effectively removing ENSO and retaining MJO variability. Optimal PNA growth in the internal atmospheric space LIM is driven by MJO heating, particularly over the Indian Ocean, and a retrograding northeast Pacific streamfunction anomaly. Additionally, the individual contributions of tropical heating and the extratropical circulation on PNA growth are investigated. The non-normal PNA growth is an important result, demonstrating the difficulty in partitioning PNA variance into contributions from different phenomena. This cautionary result is likely applicable to many geophysical phenomena and should be considered in attribution studies. 

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