The pervasive loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene necessitates rapid assessments of ecosystems to understand how they will respond to anthropogenic environmental change. Many studies have sought to describe the adaptive capacity (AC) of individual species, a measure that encompasses a species’ ability to respond and adapt to change. Only those adaptive mechanisms that can be used over the next few decades (e.g. via novel interactions, behavioural changes, hybridization, migration, etc.) are relevant to the timescale set by the rapid changes of the Anthropocene. The impacts of species loss cascade through ecosystems, yet few studies integrate the capacity of ecological networks to adapt to change with the ACs of its species. Here, we discuss three ecosystems and how their ecological networks impact the AC of species and vice versa. A more holistic perspective that considers the AC of species with respect to their ecological interactions and functions will provide more predictive power and a deeper understanding of what factors are most important to a species’ survival. We contend that the AC of a species, combined with its role in ecosystem function and stability, must guide decisions in assigning ‘risk’ and triaging biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.
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Novel Disturbance Regimes and Ecological Responses
Many natural disturbances have a strong climate forcing, and concern is rising about how ecosystems will respond to disturbance regimes to which they are not adapted. Novelty can arise either as attributes of the disturbance regime (e.g., frequency, severity, duration) shift beyond their historical ranges of variation or as new disturbance agents not present historically emerge. How much novelty ecological systems can absorb and whether changing disturbance regimes will lead to novel outcomes is determined by the ecological responses of communities, which are also subject to change. Powerful conceptual frameworks exist for anticipating consequences of novel disturbance regimes, but these remain challenging to apply in real-world settings. Nonlinear relationships (e.g., tipping points, feedbacks) are of particular concern because of their disproportionate effects. Future research should quantify the rise of novelty in disturbance regimes and assess the capacity of ecosystems to respond to these changes. Novel disturbance regimes will be potent catalysts for ecological change. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 54 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2027261
- PAR ID:
- 10442683
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
- Volume:
- 54
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1543-592X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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