An official website of the United States government
Abstract Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to life, property, and the economy. As forecasting capabilities increase, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale provides an opportunity for advanced notice of impactful precipitation events. Building on a previous workshop, the Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods (PRES2iP) project team conducted a second workshop virtually in the fall of 2021. The workshop engaged a variety of practitioners, including emergency managers, water managers, tribal environmental professionals, and National Weather Service meteorologists. While the team’s first workshop examined the “big picture” in how practitioners define “extreme precipitation” and how precipitation events impact their jobs, this workshop focused on details of S2S precipitation products, both current and potential future decision tools. Discussions and activities in this workshop assessed how practitioners use existing forecast products to make decisions about extreme precipitation, how they interpret newly developed educational tools from the PRES2iP team, and how they manage uncertainty in forecasts. By collaborating with practitioners, the PRES2iP team plans to use knowledge gained going forward to create more educational and operational tools related to S2S extreme precipitation event prediction, helping practitioners to make more informed decisions.
more »
« less
What Floodplain Managers Want: Using Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making
Abstract As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts; for long-term decisions, other factors, such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials, had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all time scales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain managers’ decisions and planning. Overall, information about weather and climate is just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making processes. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that information about weather and climate is more useful and, therefore, more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1663840
- PAR ID:
- 10444656
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Weather, Climate, and Society
- Volume:
- 15
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1948-8327
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 759-772
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Heavy precipitation events and their associated flooding can have major impacts on communities and stakeholders. There is a lack of knowledge, however, about how stakeholders make decisions at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales (i.e., 2 weeks to 3 months). To understand how decisions are made and S2S predictions are or can be used, the project team for “Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods” (PRES 2 iP) conducted a 2-day workshop in Norman, Oklahoma, during July 2018. The workshop engaged 21 professionals from environmental management and public safety communities across the contiguous United States in activities to understand their needs for S2S predictions of potential extended heavy precipitation events. Discussions and role-playing activities aimed to identify how workshop participants manage uncertainty and define extreme precipitation, the time scales over which they make key decisions, and the types of products they use currently. This collaboration with stakeholders has been an integral part of PRES 2 iP research and has aimed to foster actionable science. The PRES 2 iP team is using the information produced from this workshop to inform the development of predictive models for extended heavy precipitation events and to collaboratively design new forecast products with our stakeholders, empowering them to make more-informed decisions about potential extreme precipitation events.more » « less
-
Abstract During the last few decades, scientific capabilities for understanding and predicting weather and climate risks have advanced rapidly. At the same time, technological advances, such as the Internet, mobile devices, and social media, are transforming how people exchange and interact with information. In this modern information environment, risk communication, interpretation, and decision-making are rapidly evolving processes that intersect across space, time, and society. Instead of a linear or iterative process in which individual members of the public assess and respond to distinct pieces of weather forecast or warning information, this article conceives of weather prediction, communication, and decision-making as an interconnected dynamic system. In this expanded framework, information and uncertainty evolve in conjunction with people’s risk perceptions, vulnerabilities, and decisions as a hazardous weather threat approaches; these processes are intertwined with evolving social interactions in the physical and digital worlds. Along with the framework, the article presents two interdisciplinary research approaches for advancing the understanding of this complex system and the processes within it: analysis of social media streams and computational natural–human system modeling. Examples from ongoing research are used to demonstrate these approaches and illustrate the types of new insights they can reveal. This expanded perspective together with research approaches, such as those introduced, can help researchers and practitioners understand and improve the creation and communication of information in atmospheric science and other fields.more » « less
-
Abstract Climate change, including directional shifts in weather averages and extremes and increased interannual weather variation, is influencing demography and distributions for many bird species. The Ouachita Mountains ecoregion in southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas contains 2 populations of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Dryobates borealis, RCW), a federally endangered, cooperatively breeding species. Since this region is at the RCW’s northwestern range periphery, ecological thresholds likely are limiting for the species. Therefore, populations in this region may be more sensitive to climate change-associated weather variation and unpredictability. We used 26 years of nesting data (1991–2016) from the 2 RCW populations to determine if interannual weather variation has affected nesting phenology and productivity. For each population, we used daily temperature and precipitation data for 3 periods (30 and 60 days before nesting; 40 days overlapping the nesting period) to determine how weather influences median nesting date and average clutch size and numbers of fledglings. In a separate analysis, we used shorter time windows with individual nests as replicates to determine how discrete weather events (e.g., minimum and maximum temperatures and intense precipitation events) affect nest success and partial brood loss. For both Oklahoma and Arkansas populations, warmer early spring temperatures generally advanced nesting and increased clutch size and fledgling number. However, the effects of average precipitation varied depending on the amount and duration of precipitation in different time periods. At the nest level, most variables reflecting discrete temperature and precipitation events were unrelated to nest success and brood loss, suggesting that factors other than weather (e.g., habitat quality and predation) more strongly influenced the nesting output of individual RCW broods. Our results indicate RCWs are responding to interannual weather variation in complex and variable ways. However, warming trends may generally be having positive effects on the species at the northwestern edge of its range.more » « less
-
Abstract Historical information has provided key insights into long‐term ecological change to marine species and ecosystems, with value to fisheries. Yet, pathways to integrate these diverse data sources into fisheries decision‐making have not been clear. Here, we identify an array of biological, ecological, and social information suitable for contemporary science‐based decision‐making, derived from local ecological knowledge, historical archives, archaeological middens and palaeoecological material. We outline two broad pathways to integrate these historical data into fisheries decision‐making, demonstrating that data‐driven use of historical information is relevant across a range of management contexts. First, historical information can inform fisheries assessments that range from simple to complex, affecting indicators of stock status. Second, it can inform estimates of biological potential and social preference, affecting the choice of fisheries reference points. Using the Caribbean Sea as an example, we illustrate these ideas with case studies representing diverse species and historical data types. Integrating historical data can improve indicators of the current state of fish populations and result in management decisions based on a more complete understanding of a potential range of variation, avoiding shifted baselines. The urgency of this work is underscored by accelerating environmental changes and the rapid loss of invaluable historical information sources. By illuminating pathways, our goal is to increase the accessibility of these types of information and to underscore that scientists, managers, and resource users have roles to play in identifying and integrating relevant long‐term data at various spatial and temporal scales to sustainably manage marine fisheries.more » « less
