Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are an increasingly common feature of large, eutrophic lakes. Non-N2-fixing CyanoHABs (e.g., Microcystis) appear to be proliferating relative to N2-fixing CyanoHABs in systems receiving increasing nutrient loads. This shift reflects increasing external nitrogen (N) inputs, and a[50-year legacy of excessive phosphorus (P) and N loading. Phosphorus is effectively retained in legacy-impacted systems, while N may be retained or lost to the atmosphere in gaseous forms (e.g., N2, NH3, N2O). Biological control on N inputs versus outputs, or the balance between N2 fixation versus denitrification, favors the latter, especially in lakes undergoing accelerating eutrophication, although denitrification removal efficiency is inhibited by increasing external N loads. Phytoplankton in eutrophic lakes have become more responsive to N inputs relative to P, despite sustained increases in N loading. From a nutrient management perspective, this suggests a need to change the freshwater nutrient limitation and input reduction paradigms; a shift from an exclusive focus on P limitation to a dual N and P colimitation and management strategy. The recent proliferation of toxic non-N2-fixing CyanoHABs, and ever-increasing N and P legacy stores, argues for such a strategy if we are to mitigate eutrophication and CyanoHAB expansion globally.
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Climate Change‐Legacy Phosphorus Synergy Hinders Lake Response to Aggressive Water Policy Targets
With mounting scientific evidence demonstrating adverse global climate change (GCC) impacts to water quality, water quality policies, such as the Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) under the U.S. Clean Water Act, have begun accounting for GCC effects in setting nutrient load‐reduction policy targets. These targets generally require nutrient reductions for attaining prescribed water quality standards (WQS) by setting safe levels of nutrient concentrations that curtail potentially harmful cyanobacteria blooms (CyanoHABs). While some governments require WQS to consider climate change, few tools are available to model the complex interactions between climate change and benthic legacy nutrients. We present a novel process‐based integrated assessment model (IAM) that examines the extent to which synergistic relationships between GCC and legacy Phosphorus release could compromise the ability of water quality policies to attain established WQS. The IAM is calibrated for simulating the eutrophic Missisquoi Bay and watershed in Lake Champlain (2001–2050). Water quality impacts of seven P‐reduction scenarios, including the 64.3% reduction specified under the current TMDL, were examined under 17 GCC scenarios. The TMDL WQS of 0.025 mg/L total phosphorus is unlikely to be met by 2035 under the mandated 64.3% reduction for all GCC scenarios. IAM simulations show that the frequency and severity of summer CyanoHABs increased or minimally decreased under most climate and nutrient reduction scenarios. By harnessing IAMs that couple complex process‐based simulation models, the management of water quality in freshwater lakes can become more adaptive through explicit accounting of GCC effects on both the external and internal sources of nutrients.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10445133
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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