Although trends toward earlier ice‐out have been documented globally, the links between ice‐out timing and lake thermal and biogeochemical structure vary spatially. In high‐latitude lakes where ice‐out occurs close to peak intensity of solar radiation, these links remain unclear. Using a long‐term dataset from 13 lakes in West Greenland, we investigated how changing ice‐out and weather conditions affect lake thermal structure and oxygen concentrations. In early ice‐out years, lakes reach higher temperatures across the water column and have deeper epilimnia. Summer hypolimnia are the warmest (~ 11°C) in years when cooler air temperatures follow early ice‐out, allowing full lake turnover. Due to the higher potential for substantive spring mixing in early ice‐out years, a warmer hypolimnion is associated with higher dissolved oxygen concentrations. By affecting variability in spring mixing, the consequences of shifts in ice phenology for lakes at high latitudes differ from expectations based on temperate regions.
Reductions in ice cover duration and earlier ice breakup are two of the most prevalent responses to climate warming in lakes in recent decades. In dimictic lakes, the subsequent periods of spring mixing and summer stratification are both likely to change in response to these phenological changes in ice cover. Here, we used a modeling approach to simulate the effect of changes in latitude on long‐term trends in duration of ice cover, spring mixing, and summer stratification by “moving” a well‐studied lake across a range of latitudes in North America (35.2°N to 65.7°N). We found a changepoint relationship between the timing of ice breakup vs. spring mixing duration on 09 May. When ice breakup occurred before 09 May, which routinely occurred at latitudes < 47°N, spring mixing was longer and more variable; when ice breakup occurred after 09 May at latitudes > 47°N, spring mixing averaged 1 day with low variability. In contrast, the duration of summer stratification showed a relatively slower rate of increase when ice breakup occurred before 09 May (< 47°N) compared to a 109% faster rate of increase when ice breakup was after 09 May (> 47°N). Projected earlier ice breakup can result in important nonlinear changes in the relative duration of spring mixing and summer stratification, which can lead to mixing regime shifts that influence the severity of oxygen depletion differentially across latitudes.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10446966
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Limnology and Oceanography
- Volume:
- 67
- Issue:
- S1
- ISSN:
- 0024-3590
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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