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1. Beyond the Background: Gravitational-wave Anisotropy and Continuous Waves from Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad2be8  

   Gardiner, Emiko C; Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Lemke, Anna-Malin; Mitridate, Andrea (April 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract Pulsar timing arrays have found evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). Assuming that the GWB is produced by supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), the next gravitational-wave (GW) signals astronomers anticipate are continuous waves (CWs) from single SMBHBs and their associated GWB anisotropy. The prospects for detecting CWs and anisotropy are highly dependent on the astrophysics of SMBHB populations. Thus, information from single sources can break degeneracies in astrophysical models and place much more stringent constraints than the GWB alone. We simulate and evolve SMBHB populations, model their GWs, and calculate their anisotropy and detectability. We investigate how varying components of our semianalytic model, including the galaxy stellar mass function, the SMBH–host galaxy relation (M_BH–M_bulge), and the binary evolution prescription, impact the expected detections. The CW occurrence rate is greatest for few total binaries, high SMBHB masses, large scatter inM_BH–M_bulge, and long hardening times. The occurrence rate depends most on the binary evolution parameters, implying that CWs offer a novel avenue to probe binary evolution. The most detectable CW sources are in the lowest frequency bin for a 16.03 yr PTA, have masses from ∼10⁹to 10¹⁰M_⊙, and are ∼1 Gpc away. The level of anisotropy increases with frequency, with the angular power spectrum over multipole modesℓvarying in low-frequencyC_ℓ>0/C₀from ∼5 × 10⁻³to ∼2 × 10⁻¹, depending on the model; typical values are near current upper limits. Observing this anisotropy would support SMBHB models for the GWB over cosmological models, which tend to be isotropic. 

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2. Deep Neural Emulation of the Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/adb4ef  

   Laal, Nima; Taylor, Stephen R; Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Simon, Joseph; Gültekin, Kayhan; Wright, David; Bécsy, Bence; Casey-Clyde, J Andrew; Chen, Siyuan; Cingoranelli, Alexander; et al (March 2025, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract While supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries are not the only viable source for the low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) signal evidenced by the most recent pulsar timing array (PTA) data sets, they are expected to be the most likely. Thus, connecting the measured PTA GWB spectrum and the underlying physics governing the demographics and dynamics of SMBH binaries is extremely important. Previously, Gaussian processes (GPs) and dense neural networks have been used to make such a connection by being built as conditional emulators; their input is some selected evolution or environmental SMBH binary parameters and their output is the emulated mean and standard deviation of the GWB strain ensemble distribution over many Universes. In this paper, we use a normalizing flow (NF) emulator that is trained on the entirety of the GWB strain ensemble distribution, rather than only mean and standard deviation. As a result, we can predict strain distributions that mirror underlying simulations very closely while also capturing frequency covariances in the strain distributions as well as statistical complexities such as tails, non-Gaussianities, and multimodalities that are otherwise not learnable by existing techniques. In particular, we feature various comparisons between the NF-based emulator and the GP approach used extensively in past efforts. Our analyses conclude that the NF-based emulator not only outperforms GPs in the ease and computational cost of training but also outperforms in the fidelity of the emulated GWB strain ensemble distributions. 

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3. A Quasar-based Supermassive Black Hole Binary Population Model: Implications for the Gravitational Wave Background

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac32de  

   Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew; Mingarelli, Chiara M. F.; Greene, Jenny E.; Pardo, Kris; Nañez, Morgan; Goulding, Andy D. (January 2022, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is believed to be dominated by GW emission from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). Observations of several dual-active galactic nuclei (AGN) strongly suggest a link between AGN and SMBHBs, given that these dual-AGN systems will eventually form bound binary pairs. Here we develop an exploratory SMBHB population model based on empirically constrained quasar populations, allowing us to decompose the GWB amplitude into an underlying distribution of SMBH masses, SMBHB number density, and volume enclosing the GWB. Our approach also allows us to self-consistently predict the number of local SMBHB systems from the GWB amplitude. Interestingly, we find the local number density of SMBHBs implied by the common-process signal in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set to be roughly five times larger than previously predicted by other models. We also find that at most ∼25% of SMBHBs can be associated with quasars. Furthermore, our quasar-based approach predicts ≳95% of the GWB signal comes fromz≲ 2.5, and that SMBHBs contributing to the GWB have masses ≳10⁸M_⊙. We also explore how different empirical galaxy–black hole scaling relations affect the local number density of GW sources, and find that relations predicting more massive black holes decrease the local number density of SMBHBs. Overall, our results point to the important role that a measurement of the GWB will play in directly constraining the cosmic population of SMBHBs, as well as their connections to quasars and galaxy mergers. 

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4. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-wave Background

   https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/acdac6  

   Agazie, Gabriella; Anumarlapudi, Akash; Archibald, Anne M.; Arzoumanian, Zaven; Baker, Paul T.; Bécsy, Bence; Blecha, Laura; Brazier, Adam; Brook, Paul R.; Burke-Spolaor, Sarah; et al (June 2023, The Astrophysical Journal Letters)

   Abstract We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings–Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of 10 14 , and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200–1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for the latter Bayes factors using a method that removes interpulsar correlations from our data set, finding p = 10 −3 (≈3 σ ) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of interpulsar correlations yields p = 5 × 10 −5 to 1.9 × 10 −4 (≈3.5 σ –4 σ ). Assuming a fiducial f −2/3 characteristic strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is 2.4 − 0.6 + 0.7 × 10 − 15 (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1 yr −1 . The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings–Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal. 

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5. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad93d5  

   Agazie, Gabriella; Anumarlapudi, Akash; Archibald, Anne_M; Arzoumanian, Zaven; Baier, Jeremy_George; Baker, Paul_T; Bécsy, Bence; Blecha, Laura; Brazier, Adam; Brook, Paul_R; et al (December 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$power law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semianalytic SMBHB population model, fit to North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav’s) 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1000 realizations, we study the populations’ characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power law. The first, at 2 nHz, is below our GWB realizations with ap-value significancep= 0.05–0.06 (≈1.8σ–1.9σ). The second, at 16 nHz, is above our GWB realizations withp= 0.04–0.15 (≈1.4σ–2.1σ). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB that could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by 3 orders of magnitude, from ∼10⁶to ∼10³, between 2 and 20 nHz. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at ${26}_{-19}^{+28}\mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the 26 nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early Universe. 

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