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Abstract This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost‐SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation‐entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted‐V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP toNdshows a non‐linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower‐tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs' direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.
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Cloud Top Radiative Cooling Rate Drives Non‐Precipitating Stratiform Cloud Responses to Aerosol Concentration
Abstract Increases in aerosol concentration are well known to influence the microphysical processes and radiative properties of clouds. By reducing droplet size, an increase in aerosol can lessen collision efficiency and increase liquid water path (LWP) in precipitating clouds or enhance evaporation rate and decrease LWP in non‐precipitating clouds. We utilize large eddy simulations to further investigate these aerosol indirect effects in Arctic mixed‐phase clouds and find, in agreement with previous studies, precipitating clouds to experience an increase in LWP and non‐precipitating clouds a decrease in LWP. Most importantly however, our results reveal a different explanation for why such an LWP decrease occurs in decoupled, non‐precipitating clouds. We find enhanced evaporation near cloud top to be driven primarily by a strengthening of maximum radiative cooling rate with aerosol concentration which drives stronger entrainment, an effect that holds true even in clouds that are optically thick.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2025103
- PAR ID:
- 10447461
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 18
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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