An official website of the United States government
Abstract The Miocene (23.03–5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern‐day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early‐to‐middle (E2MMIO; 20.03–11.6 Ma) and middle‐to‐late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5–5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model‐data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by ∼2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern‐day tropics; mid and high‐latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model‐data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2concentration, particularly in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts.
more »
« less
Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1)
Abstract The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker‐than‐modern equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model‐data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state‐of‐art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi‐model, multi‐proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community‐led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10448272
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy‐model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of thepCO2forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38–34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34–30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre‐ and post‐EOT, typically forced with a halving ofpCO2. We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude ofpCO2change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi‐model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease inpCO2, to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively. These proxy‐model intercomparisons identify decliningpCO2as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (200 or 243 ppmv) approaching that of thepCO2proxies (150 ppmv). However individual model estimates span a decrease of 66–375 ppmv, thus proxy‐model uncertainties are dominated by model divergence.more » « less
-
Abstract Predictions for the southwestern US with warming often suggest increased aridity. We investigate the sedimentary record of the Miocene Climate Optimum and Transition (MCO and MCT; ∼17–14 Ma) in northern New Mexico to understand the impact of warmer global temperatures and higherpCO2on southwestern US hydroclimate. The MCO and MCT comprised a globally warmer period with elevatedpCO2similar to end‐of‐the‐century (∼400–800 ppm) projections. We present new stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) records of vadose‐zone and groundwater terrestrial carbonates and of modern precipitation, stream, and groundwater from the Española basin in northern New Mexico and establish a high‐resolution age model using new40Ar/39Ar ages. We interpret δ18O as reflecting the balance between summertime monsoonal and wintertime precipitation and δ13C as a reflection of plant productivity. Terrestrial carbonate δ18O is lowest during the MCO and MCT and is correlated with terrestrial carbonate δ13C and anti‐correlated with the benthic δ18O record. We interpret these data as recording an overall winter‐wet climate during the MCO and MCT, but that precipitation seasonality varied in response to changes in global climate during this period. The further correlation with carbonate δ13C suggests that plant productivity was driven by the amount of wintertime precipitation. Comparison with middle Miocene climate model simulations reveals that higher CO2drives a shift toward wintertime precipitation. Though paleogeographic changes may obscure a direct comparison to modern warming, overall, our findings suggest that prolonged global warmth may be associated with increased wintertime precipitation and greater primary productivity in northern New Mexico.more » « less
-
Abstract Peak Neogene warmth and minimal polar ice volumes occurred during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO, ca. 16.95–13.95 Ma) followed by cooling and ice sheet expansion during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT, ca. 13.95–12.8 Ma). Previous records of northern high-latitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during these global climatic transitions are limited to Atlantic sites, and none resolve orbital-scale variability. Here, we present an orbital-resolution alkenone SST proxy record from the subpolar North Pacific that establishes a local maximum of SSTs during the MCO as much as 16 °C warmer than modern with rapid warming initiating the MCO, cooling synchronous with Antarctic ice sheet expansion during the MMCT, and high variability on orbital time scales. Persistently cooler North Pacific SST anomalies than in the Atlantic at equivalent latitudes throughout the Miocene suggest enhanced Atlantic northward heat transport under a globally warm climate. We conclude that a global forcing mechanism, likely elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is the most parsimonious explanation for synchronous global high-latitude warmth during the Miocene.more » « less
-
Abstract The Miocene epoch (23.03–5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today. Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, and many flora and fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist today. Miocene climate was dynamic: long periods of early and late glaciation bracketed a ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval—the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation,pCO2, and ocean and atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures and moderately higherpCO2(∼400–600 ppm), the MCO has been suggested as a particularly appropriate analog for future climate scenarios, and for assessing the predictive accuracy of numerical climate models—the same models that are used to simulate future climate. Yet, Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re‐interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model‐data discrepancy. Our understanding of Miocene climatic, biogeochemical, and oceanic changes on broad spatial and temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting the physical, chemical, and biotic aspects of the Earth system are emerging, and together provide a more comprehensive understanding of this important time interval. Here, we review the state‐of‐the‐art in Miocene climate, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, ice sheet dynamics, and biotic adaptation research as inferred through proxy observations and modeling studies.more » « less
