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Abstract The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID‐19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near‐complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID‐19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent‐based model tuned on a medium‐sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid‐spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.
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Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling
Abstract As COVID‐19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high‐resolution agent‐based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll‐out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY — representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll‐out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening.
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- PAR ID:
- 10449447
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advanced Theory and Simulations
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2513-0390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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